Vikings vs. Lions: 4 offensive keys in week 16
The Minnesota Vikings return to U.S. Bank Stadium for a pivotal divisional matchup against the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions.
As the playoffs inch closer, both teams are fighting for a spot in the dance while trying to gain much-needed momentum to bring with them past the conclusion of the regular season.
The Lions still have a scenario available where they can take the number-one seed in the conference and get that coveted first-round bye week. The Vikings are just fighting for a spot with an outside shot at the NFC North division title. With the Los Angeles Rams’ win over the New Orleans Saints, the Vikings hold the seventh seed and currently have a 52% chance of making the playoffs, according to NFL.com.
The Lions defense has been an up-and-down unit this season. They’re a young unit with good pieces to build their future with, such as linebacker Jack Campbell and nickel Brian Branch. They’re a unit that is stout against the run. Despite seeing the 12th most rushing attempts, they’ve allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards.
The Minnesota offense has also been an up-and-down unit as they sort out the quarterback position down the stretch of this season. Nick Mullens came in for his first start last week and had some positive moments, but it wasn’t enough to hold off Cincinnati’s comeback bid last Saturday.
The Vikings have no choice but to keep winning if they want to hold on to their playoff spot. To do that the offense will have to follow these four keys to success against Detroit’s defense.
Time to Ty-ghten up
Ty Chandler made his first start last Saturday against the Bengals and he did not disappoint. Chandler’s 132 yards was the first time a Viking ran for over 100 yards this season. When asked about it after, Chandler said it “felt great, big shout-out to the offensive line, changing the line of scrimmage…it’s a blessing to be out there, big shout-out to my running back room for helping me get ready for this moment.”
With Alexander Mattison still fighting back into the rotation, Chandler will have another opportunity to be the feature back.
Detroit emphasizes stopping the run, even running looks that resemble a 4-4 with a single-high safety to crowd the box and stuff running lanes. Kevin O’Connell likes establishing the run to open up the play-action passing game, and that mindset probably won’t change. If the Vikings want a chance in this game, Chandler will need to have another game like last week’s to keep the Lions defense on their heels and away from the playmakers in the passing game.
Just win baby!
In the second half of the game and overtime against the Cincinnati Bengals, Mullens went 14-of-17 for 148 yards and two touchdowns. The offense had a passing success rate of 55%, tied for seventh-best last week.
How? The Bengals continued to play man- and single-high coverages against the Vikings to help stop the run game with Chandler. So O’Connell started drawing up plays to where Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison were asked to win against their matchups. Mullens made the throws and Addison and Jefferson continued to reward O’Connell’s confidence in them.
This week, Detroit will do the same as they will emphasize stopping the run first. That will leave opportunities for Jefferson, but more than likely Addison, to be in one-on-one against one of these Lions corners. Both Cameron Sutton and Jerry Jacobs have allowed passer ratings of 95+ when targeted this season so there is an opportunity to exploit them.
No Hutch in your get up?
One player on the Lions front can wreck the gameplan for the Vikings this week and it’s Detroit’s edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson.
The 2022 Defensive Rookie of the Year has had a solid year with his 6.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss. While he may not hit his rookie mark of 9.5, he has been just as disruptive this season in both the run and pass game.
That doesn’t mean that he’s not hungry for another sack. In the last four games, he only has one sack in his last four games and two in his last nine. Yet Hutchinson leads the league in pressures with 45. He’s getting close and Detroit will continue to move him across the defensive line so he can have that game-breaking game.
This Minnesota offensive line will have their hands full yet again after having to deal with the likes of Maxx Crosby and Trey Hendrickson back to back.
Hang on to the football
It’s week 16, and yet here we are discussing yet again how the Vikings have to hang on to the football.
It’s simple. If they hang on to the football and score in their two red-zone trips in the first half, they win that game against Cincinnati. If Mullens doesn’t throw two bone-headed interceptions, both essentially in the laps of the defenders, one literally, the Vikings win that game.
This has got to stop. Since 2017, the most turnovers a team has committed in a season and still made the playoffs is 27 by the Buffalo Bills last season. The Vikings have 26 with three games remaining.
According to recent history, the Vikings have only one turnover to spare if they want to make the playoffs, which seems accurate. The only two teams that are ahead of Minnesota in 2023 are the New York Jets, who are out of the playoffs and the Cleveland Browns who have a historically good defense.
Hang on to the football and let’s make life easier on yourselves, life easier on the defense and make it easier to pave your way to the playoffs.
The Real Forno Show
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