USC’s most important game in the 2024 football season is the first one
We are writing a lot about the new Big Ten football schedule.
Every Big Ten team knows which opponents it will face in 2024 and 2025, and the home and road assignments are also known.
We wrote that “The Big Ten is also doing away with divisions, something the Pac-12 and ACC have recently done. The top two teams in the conference standings are the two teams which will play in the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The Big Ten has used a scheduling format called “flex protect plus,” in which not every team gets the same number of fixed annual opponents. Iowa has three fixed opponents — Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin — while USC has only one fixed opponent, the UCLA Bruins.”
We are looking at USC’s schedule and evaluating which games are especially important in 2024. We are going to come right out and say it: The season opener versus LSU in Las Vegas is the most important game for USC next year. Why, though? You’re probably wondering what would make us arrive at such a conclusion. We’ll explain below:
WHY IS LSU THE MOST IMPORTANT GAME IN 2024?
The LSU game is the most important one for USC on the 2024 schedule not just because it’s the first one, not just because it’s a high-profile opponent, not just because it’s the SEC, but because USC’s quarterback — either Malachi Nelson or Miller Moss — will face tons of questions. It could be that either man will deliver a great 2024 season, but the LSU game invites the most uncertainty and offers the greatest potential for rough edges and growing pains. If USC can get past this hurdle with a win, that should send confidence soaring through the rest of the team for the remainder of the season.
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WHY LSU, PART 2
The other central reason the LSU game is especially important is that with a 12-team playoff format, beating a high-end opponent dramatically increases the odds that USC — even if it loses twice — will easily get into the field. A 10-2 USC team with a win over LSU is making the 12-team playoff in 2024. This is not a debate. Winning this game will give USC a cushion in its Big Ten schedule and versus Notre Dame.
WHY LSU, PART 3
There’s one more central reason why LSU is the most important game for USC in 2024: It’s a neutral-site game. USC gets Michigan, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame all at home. Penn State is the only especially tough true road game. The other road games are tricky, but PSU is a nasty road assignment. Because the LSU game is in Las Vegas, USC gets a chance to post a big win away from the Coliseum but not in a true road environment. It’s the best way to boost the 2024 resume without playing a road game.
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WHY NOT MICHIGAN?
Why wouldn’t Michigan be the most important 2024 game for USC? It’s a fair question. To be sure, it’s an enormous game. We can say this much: If USC loses the LSU game, this becomes a lot more essential for the Trojans. However, if they beat LSU, the Trojans could lose to Michigan and still have some margin for error in the playoff chase. LSU, though, is the first domino. The significance of the Michigan game is considerable in its own right, but it does depend to a degree on what happens in USC-LSU.
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WHY NOT WISCONSIN?
The Wisconsin game is as important as the Michigan game, possibly more, but we don’t know when those two Big Ten games will be played within the 2024 schedule. Will they be played in October or November? We don’t know. We also don’t know how the off week and the Trojans’ road trips will be arranged.
We will say this: If the Wisconsin game is before the Michigan game, that becomes more important, because if USC beats LSU and then Wisconsin, with Michigan on the calendar in November as a late-season game, the Trojans might have already wrapped up a playoff spot before facing Michigan. At least, they will be on the doorstep of a playoff berth and will likely have ample margin for error.
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WHY NOT NOTRE DAME?
The Notre Dame game, coming at the end of the season, obviously matters a great deal to USC fans, alumni, coaches, and players. Yet, if the Trojans beat LSU, then Michigan, then Wisconsin, and also Penn State, they will have likely wrapped up a playoff berth. Only if they suffer an unlikely stumble elsewhere would this game be a must-win for playoff purposes. To that extent, the Notre Dame game’s full value depends on other results earlier in the season.
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WHY NOT PENN STATE?
The Penn State game is the toughest USC road trip on the 2024 schedule. Yet, if the Trojans clean up at home and win that LSU neutral-site game in Vegas, the Men of Troy should still be good for the playoff.
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THE BIG TEN SCHEDULE IN 2024
USC doesn’t have to play Ohio State in 2024. The Trojans play Iowa, Illinois, Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern, and UCLA, in addition to the teams we have mentioned above. USC should win those six games without too many worries or problems. San Jose State is also another game the Trojans should comfortably claim.
USC’s 2024 schedule provides five especially tough games: LSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Penn State. If USC goes 3-2 in those five games and finishes its season 10-2 — and does not play in the Big Ten Championship Game — that should very likely be enough to reach a 12-team playoff. The schedule is both manageable and tough — manageable enough to rack up eight or nine wins without too much effort, and tough enough that if USC does reach 10 wins, the playoff resume will look very good to the selection committee.
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BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
One thing to keep in mind: If USC goes 10-2 and does make the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis, the Trojans probably would need to win that game to make a 12-team playoff.
If USC goes 11-1, it would be safely in a 12-team playoff even if it lost the Big Ten Championship Game.
