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USC’s collapse vs UCLA recalls the Cotton Bowl and the start of Lincoln Riley’s downfall

The 2023 Cotton Bowl was the kind of moment which would normally convince a head coach to do things differently. Seeing Tulane score 16 points in the final five minutes to turn a seemingly easy 45-30 win into a shocking 46-45 loss should have convinced Lincoln Riley to fire Alex Grinch on the spot and initiate a new defensive coordinator search.

The fact that Riley had Caleb Williams coming back for one more season, along with a lot of other talented players on the USC roster, should have made Riley aware of the unique opportunity the Trojans faced.

Getting the right defensive coordinator and bringing him in to maximize Caleb Williams’ talents — and win the Pac-12 championship — seemed like the move Riley needed to make.

Instead, he felt that since USC did well in Year 1, a second year with Alex Grinch’s system would provide continuity for players. It wasn’t a great argument, but it was an understandable one. Riley brought Grinch to Los Angeles from Oklahoma, so he felt giving Grinch a second USC season was the right thing to do.

Understandable. Reasonable.

Also not the right move.

Riley bet big on Alex Grinch and lost everything. Now he has to search for a new defensive coordinator, but it’s more than that. Riley has to consider major staffing changes beyond one man. He has to rethink how he runs his program.

Riley didn’t learn from the Cotton Bowl. Maybe Saturday’s loss to UCLA will truly open his eyes and make him see how much he needs to change his ways.

People are still talking about the Cotton Bowl, in case you haven’t noticed, and that’s worth thinking about as Riley’s career arrives at a crossroads:

THE BIG PICTURE

UCLA FOLKS ARE DEFINITELY AWARE OF THE COTTON BOWL

THE COTTON BOWL STILL STINGS

DIDN'T FIRE GRINCH WHEN HE SHOULD HAVE

NO DOUBT

RILEY DIDN'T LEARN FROM TULANE

WHAT STARTED IT ALL

KEY MOMENT

PEOPLE REMEMBER

TULANE IS A WORD PEOPLE LIKE TO USE

REFERENCE POINT

TURNING POINT

BOTH?

DOWNWARD TREND

UCLA IS WORSE THAN TULANE

Nov 18, 2023; Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 18, 2023; Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

The UCLA loss is worse than the Tulane loss because USC’s offensive line, not just its defensive line, got dominated. UCLA owned the game on both sides of the ball. At least versus Tulane, USC’s offense was brilliant, converting over 70 percent of third-down conversions and collecting over 39 minutes in time of possession. USC rolled up 594 yards. The offense was as good as it possibly could have been, minus two specific plays, a safety and a Caleb Williams interception.

This was 100-percent failure throughout the roster, with the exception of Caleb Williams. This was a total breakdown. Lincoln Riley has to own up to it.

MORE THAN A GRINCH PROBLEM

Nov 18, 2023; Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 18, 2023; Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

Caleb Williams was running for his life on nearly every play. What happens next year, when Caleb is not USC’s quarterback? The Trojans have to upgrade their whole roster, especially on their lines. This is why the UCLA loss has to get through to Riley that he needs a total makeover, not just some slight changes.

HOW RILEY OPERATES

Nov 18, 2023; Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 18, 2023; Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

Staffing changes are hugely important for Riley. He needs to make a lot of them, and he needs to make the right ones. However, it’s not just a matter of firing some guys and replacing them with others. Riley’s whole blueprint for how to run a program must change. The way he is conducting practices and the way he is developing players is not up to par. If Riley can’t change his methods, his personnel changes won’t matter that much.

HUMILIATION

Nov 18, 2023; Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 18, 2023; Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

Riley talked a lot about USC being close to having a much better record. The UCLA loss wasn’t close. Maybe that fact will help Riley realize just how far away USC is from being good.

RECRUITING

Nov 18, 2023; Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 18, 2023; Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

USC has really fallen behind in 2024 recruiting. With the season now over, Riley has to rally and find a defensive coordinator who will command respect with defensive recruits.

The pressure is on. We will see how much the UCLA game really did teach to Lincoln Riley. The Cotton Bowl didn’t pound home the right lessons. Maybe the UCLA game will.

It needs to.

Story originally appeared on Trojans Wire