Updated Week 12 daily fantasy stock reports for three intriguing running backs
By John Evans
Special to Yahoo Sports
As we head into Sunday’s slate of games — and subsequently, closer to the fantasy playoffs — making the right lineup decisions is essential. This is especially true for the running back position, and just as true when you’re making budgetary decisions in daily fantasy.
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Here are three updated stock reports for a trio of running backs in Week 12:
Stock Up: Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
Chris Carson is hard to bring down — in more ways than one. Carson has built upon his promising rookie season with three 100-yard-games in 2018 and has played very well when healthy. That’s a notable caveat, though, because he’s not been the most durable back in the league. Happily, Carson seems 100% at the moment.
While Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis have their roles, it’s not a “hot hand” situation in Seattle. Carson got 17 carries last week and Davis popped up on the injury report with a knee issue. The Seahawks sit at 13th in the league in run-blocking, according to Football Outsiders, and are first in total rushing yards. No one on this line is dominating from a grading perspective, but they’re a large, physical group who punish defenses on a weekly basis.
The Panthers are not an obvious team to target in running back matchups. They’re 12th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense metric. Only seven teams have surrendered fewer rushing yards than Carolina. However, over the last four games this defense has sprung a few leaks. The larger factor here is Seattle’s commitment to the run. When he took over in January, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer vowed to run the ball even when the other team is expecting it. Well, teams have sure learned to expect it. No team in the NFL averages more attempts.
Though the 2018 defense won’t make anyone forget the Legion of Boom, Seattle’s stoppers have rounded into form as the season has progressed. Carolina’s offense is dangerous but too herky-jerky to be considered upper echelon right now. This shouldn’t be a game that forces Seattle to abandon their run-first strategy. Expect a steady diet of carries for Carson as the lead back in this busy committee. I like him to produce RB2 numbers this week, making him a great value at $17 in Yahoo’s Daily Fantasy game. For context, Austin Ekeler is a dollar more.
Stock Down: Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
The Sunday night game should be a high-stakes affair, as Green Bay and Minnesota are playing for their postseason lives. On paper, the Packers are a more favorable matchup than Carolina. They’re 24th against the run in Football Outsiders’ estimation and a lowly 26th in rushing yards allowed. It’s also easy to explain away Dalvin Cook’s nine-carry, 12-yard performance in Week 11 as it came against the Bears. Chicago has the toughest run defense in the league, after all.
However, we need to take into account just how bad the Vikings’ run blocking has been. Minnesota is now dead last in adjusted line yards. With a defense as good as the Vikings’ there’s no explanation for averaging 84 rushing yards, the league’s third-lowest total. One viable reason: they can’t run the ball when they want to. Minnesota’s line play has forced them into a pass-happy approach, and this struggling unit is allowing the league’s most QB pressures.
Minnesota’s best run blocker this season, Tom Compton, lasted a half in Chicago before being forced to the bench by the troublesome knee that has kept him out since Week 7. It would help a lot if he can go, and conversely the Packers will be without defensive end Mike Daniels. However, Daniels’ best attribute is his pass-rushing acumen. Fill-in Dean Lowry has been stout against the run as a rotational player, so Daniels’ loss isn’t as big a factor as it first appears. There is a limit to what a player even as gifted as Cook can do behind a line playing as poorly as Minnesota’s. He’s tallied 16 receptions in his four healthy games, so his involvement in the passing game provides a floor in PPR formats. His $26 price tag is not a Daily Fantasy bargain, though. I’d stay away.
Stock Up: Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens
Perhaps we should proceed with caution in the case of an undrafted rookie like Gus Edwards, but it’s hard to overlook this matchup if you’re scraping by at RB. Baltimore hosts an Oakland Raiders team that is permitting the NFL’s second-most rushing yards. Against this reeling defense opposing ball-carriers bust off runs at nearly five yards a pop.
Meanwhile, the Ravens’ offensive line is a little better than average and second in the league on short-yardage runs. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley is playing through a high-ankle sprain and left guard Alex Lewis has a balky shoulder, but both should suit up in a must-win game. The great Marshal Yanda is playing up to his lofty standards at guard.
Things set up well for Edwards with running mate Alex Collins dealing with a lingering foot injury and Lamar Jackson likely to make another start. With Jackson under center the Ravens are a decidedly run-heavy offense. A scrambling quarterback always makes it easier for tailbacks to escape the full attention of a defense.
The Raiders are likely to get run over in this game and Edwards’ no-nonsense, north-south style satisfied John Harbaugh in last week’s win over Cincinnati. All these factors make Edwards a not-so-cheap $18 in the daily game, but he’s likely to return on that investment.
