Updated game-by-game predictions for Wisconsin football after its loss to Iowa
Wisconsin’s Big Ten Championship hopes took a sizable hit Saturday as the Badgers fell 15-6 to the Iowa Hawkeyes and relinquished control of the Big Ten West.
The loss obviously affects the division race, but it also affects the Badgers’ rest-of-season outlook. The team will now be without starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai for some time and does not appear well-equipped to beat a team built on physicality.
That last note is part of a larger conversation. But the note on Mordecai changes a lot. Wisconsin now must turn to Braedyn Locke to run an offense built around the passing game. Things are not great.
For how much the outlook has changed, here is how ESPN FPI predicts the rest of Wisconsin’s season:
Week 8 at Illinois
Matchup predictor: 66.6% Wisconsin wins (down from 77.4%)
Date: Oct. 21
Illinois FPI Rank: No. 64
Illinois’ 2023 record: 3-4
Week 9 vs Ohio State
Matchup predictor: 11.7% Wisconsin wins (down from 16.8%)
Date: Oct. 28
Ohio State FPI Rank: No. 1
Ohio State’s 2023 record: 6-0
Week 10 at Indiana
Matchup predictor: 79.8% Wisconsin wins (down from 81.1%)
Date: Nov. 4
Indiana FPI Rank: No. 91
Indiana’s 2023 record: 2-4
Week 11 vs Northwestern
Matchup predictor: 85.3% Wisconsin wins (down from 88.6%
Date: Nov. 11
Northwestern FPI Rank: No. 88
Northwestern’s 2023 record: 3-3
Week 12 vs Nebraska
Matchup predictor: 78% Wisconsin wins (down from 82.7%)
Date: Nov. 18
Nebraska FPI Rank: No. 65
Nebraska’s 2023 record: 3-3
Week 13 at Minnesota
Matchup predictor: 66.4% Wisconsin wins (down from 72.5%)
Date: Nov. 25
Minnesota FPI Rank: No. 61
Minnesota 2023 record: 3-3
Overall
FPI Rank: 28 (down 5 spots)
Projected W-L: 7.9-4.3
% Chance…
Wisconsin wins out: 1.2
Six or more wins: 98.1
Win Big Ten West: 16.9
Win Big Ten: 2
Makes College Football Playoff: 0.0
Win National Title: 0.0
