Updated ESPN FPI win projections for Wisconsin football
Each week, ESPN updates Wisconsin’s win projections for future matchups. How did an upset loss to Washington State effect the predictions?
The network uses FPI as a model every preseason to predict win percentages for each college football game as well as data on how likely a team will be to advance to the playoff or win the national championship.
It’s no surprise that Wisconsin is heavily favored this weekend against New Mexico State, but what are the win projections looking like when Big Ten play begins? Here is a look at ESPN FPI’s win probability projections for each game left on the Badger schedule:
September 17 vs New Mexico State
Sep 10, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers tight end Jack Eschenbach (82) rushes with the football during the third quarter against the Washington State Cougars at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 98.5%
September 24 at Ohio State
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Zach Harrison (33) runs onto the field with the Buckeyes as they are introduced at the start of the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Clemson Tigers on Saturday, December 28, 2019 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. [Joshua A. Bickel/Dispatch]
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 6.5%
October 1 vs Illinois
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – NOVEMBER 6: Head coach Bret Bielema of the Illinois Fighting Illini looks on before the start of the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium on November 6, 2021 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 72.3%
October 8 at Northwestern
Sep 3, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz (5) celebrates following a touchdown during the third quarter against the Illinois State Redbirds at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 74.3%
October 15 at Michigan State
Dec 30, 2021; Atlanta, GA, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Payton Thorne (10) celebrates after a victory against the Pittsburgh Panthers in the second half during the 2021 Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 23.9%
October 22 vs Purdue
Oct 23, 2021; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers tight end Payne Durham (87) catches a pass for a touchdown during the game at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 55%
November 5 vs Maryland
Dec 29, 2021; New York, NY, USA; Maryland Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3) runs the ball as Virginia Tech Hokies linebacker Dax Hollifield (4) pursues during the second half of the 2021 Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 56.7%
November 12 at Iowa
Sep 3, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz (5) throws a pass during warmups prior to the game against the Illinois State Redbirds at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 57.7%
November 19 at Nebraska
Sep 3, 2022; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Casey Thompson (11) passes against the North Dakota Fighting Hawks during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 60.1%
November 26 vs Minnesota
Dec 28, 2021; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Tanner Morgan (2) against the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
ESPN FPI Win Probability: 52%
