UFC Fight Night 184 breakdown: Skill, circumstances favor Alistair Overeem over Alexander Volkov
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC Fight Night 184.
UFC Fight Night 184 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event streams on ESPN+.
Alistair Overeem (47-18 MMA, 12-7 UFC)
Staple info:
Height: 6'4" Age: 40 Weight: 252 lbs. Reach: 80"
Last fight: TKO win over Augusto Sakai (Sept. 5, 2020)
Camp: Elevation Fight Team (Denver, Co.)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info: + Strikeforce and DREAM heavyweight titles + K-1 grand prix heavyweight champion (2010) + ADCC European winner + 25 KO victories + 17 submission wins + 34 first-round finishes + KO power + Accurate and variating shot selection + Devastating knees and kicks + Crafty clinch game + Underrated takedown ability + Solid top control ^ Good grip-fighting/ground striking + Dangerous guillotine choke – Dropped or stopped in 10 of last 18 fights
Alexander Volkov (32-8 MMA, 6-2 UFC)
Staple info:
Height: 6'7" Age: 32 Weight: 265 lbs. Reach: 80"
Last fight: TKO win over Walt Harris (Oct. 24, 2020)
Camp: Strela Team (Russia)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info: + M-1 and Bellator heavyweight title + Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt + Kyokushin karate brown belt + 20 KO victories + 3 submission wins + 15 first-round finishes + KO power + Accurate right hand ^ Coming forward and off the counter + Well-balanced combination attack + Dangerous knees + Improved wrestling ability ^ Defensive fundamentals and scrambling + Serviceable submission grappling
Point of interest: Heavyweight kickboxing
(Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
The main event in Las Vegas features a fun pairing of heavyweight contenders who are very familiar with fighting on the feet. [autotag]Alexander Volkov[/autotag] is a kickboxing heavyweight who comes from a traditional martial arts background in kyokushin and tsu shin gen, styles of karate that emphasize more on the sparring and sporting aspects. Making the jump into MMA from a young age, Volkov has done well in regards to translating his style. Taking more of a squared stance than most traditional martial artists, Volkov opens up his offensive options from both sides, all while still carrying the in-and-out abilities typically associated with karate fighters. A diverse striker who is effective coming forward and off of the counter, Volkov keeps an accurate right hand at the ready and can also be sharp from a southpaw stance. When feeling in stride, Volkov will come forward in combination, punctuating his presence off of his lead leg like many Eastern European and Russian kickboxers. However, he will need to mind his kick retractions given the looming takedown threats that it could potentially cost him. Enter [autotag]Alistair Overeem[/autotag]. When facing dangerous strikers as of late, Overeem typically elects to hang just outside of range for safe distance – keeping his space – and looking for his openings to strike. If you have been watching Overeem since his days in PRIDE, then you will know that the Dutchman didn’t always fight this way. Although the striking upgrades made during the K-1 chapter of his career helped him immensely, it wasn’t until Overeem’s run of UFC knockout losses that we saw him adjust his footwork and approach. Already dangerous off of his stance shifts, it was Overeem’s confidence in his head movement and technique that often allowed him to plot in front of his opponents longer than he needed to. But after a series of camp changes during his run of losses, Overeem seemed to take things to another level at Jackson-Wink, where he would embrace a slightly different method than before. Like many fighters who come from that camp, Overeem would circle more comfortably from the outside as he looked to sharpshoot his attacks like a torpedo plane on a bombing run. Among the highest striking accuracy in the division, this sort of style can be optimal for Overeem, playing a huge role in protecting his chin from unnecessary roughness. And since moving shop to the Elevation Fight Team, Overeem has only further found a middle ground in what is a more practical approach. But perceived technical advantages aside, Overeem is obviously not beyond being on the wrong end of power shots, as I’ll be curious to see if the former Strikeforce champ elects to change phases in this fight.
Point of interest: Clinching in the small cage
(Jasen Vinlove, USA TODAY Sports)
Given that Overeem is the more dangerous man on the mat, I suspect that the clinch will serve as a key junction in this matchup. Even with names like Josh Barnett or Randy Couture in the mix, you can certainly make an argument for Overeem being one of the best heavyweight clinch fighters we’ve seen in MMA. Renowned for his devastating knees in-close, it is the slick grip and hand-fighting of the Dutchman that allows him to construct and control his demolitions. The lynchpin for striking with effectiveness from both the clinch and the ground comes down the same thing: the ability to grip fight. Hence why most good ground-and-pounders make for good clinch strikers and vice versa. Grip-fighting is also an arguable lifesaver on the defensive end, as most takedowns and submissions (as well as passes and advances, to a certain extent) become incredibly difficult with the use of only one grasping limb. Overeem has also added to his takedown threats from this space, showing that he is not afraid to change levels and snatch up a single. Although Overeem's takedown mechanics may not be technically sound, the 22-year pro shows a solid understanding of momentum that serves him well (especially when working off of barriers). Nevertheless, Overeem will likely have a lot more entry obstacles than just uppercuts and knees when it comes to getting Volkov down. Despite wrestling traditionally being Volkov’s foil, the 12-year pro has slowly but surely shored up some of the fundamental holes in his takedown defense in recent years. Whether he is utilizing overhooks or underhooks, Volkov does much better at stopping his opposition from attacking his hips. The Russian fighter is also very diligent when it comes to head position, proactively placing his forehead as a stopper of momentum. With that in mind, Volkov has been prone to preemptively dipping his head in harm’s way, and he has eaten his fair share of uppercuts throughout his career. Though Volkov has competently climbed to a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he’s traditionally been a bit too comfortable and conservative when fighting off his back (despite the recent addition of attacking with elbows). Past opponents who have implemented a top-heavy pursuit have typically succeeded in grappling stanzas with the Russian, or at the very least, earned enough control time to win the round. That said, when Volkov fought Fabricio Werdum and Curtis Blaydes, the 32-year-old displayed an improved getup urgency and scrambling ability, utilizing a solid tripod technique to get back to his feet. Turtling to his base to stand, Volkov did a great job at keeping his back at a severe slope when returning to topside, something that discourages opportunistic back-takers by making a difficult surface to secure to. Although Overeem is not an avid back taker, Volkov will still need to be mindful anytime he bases out to stand, as the turtle position can often offer a la carte options in regards to front-headlocks (which could be problematic given Overeem's acumen with guillotine chokes and ground strikes).
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
Despite the oddsmakers setting Overeem as the slight favorite at -125, public money has steadily pushed the Pride veteran to underdog odds, listing Volkov -190 and Overeem +165 as of this writing. Seeing a line shift like this isn't exactly surprising when you consider that most MMA gamblers inherently love fading older fighters and stroking "sexier" strikers. The potential problem, however, is that most analysis – whether it be from professional gamblers or pundits alike – typically lacks a technical or relevant focus to the style matchup at hand (which is why you come here, right?). Not only do contrasting styles make a big difference in the outcome of an MMA matchup, but the surface on which the contest takes place is also huge. And in this pandemic era of the UFC, fights are either happening in the regulation-sized cage on Yas Island or the smaller cage inside of the UFC Apex. With that in mind, I suspect that this Saturday's fight favors Overeem. Don't get me wrong: I could totally see Volkov pierce through Overeem's shelling guard for the finish if "The Reem" elects to do his usual rope-a-dope against the fence. I just also believe that the small octagon is kryptonite for a tall striker like Volkov (who holds the opposite record of Overeem's 0-1 at this venue). Even if Volkov is able to defend a bulk of the takedowns offered up to him, I still don't like the fact that the small cage will likely have him tied up with the best active clinch fighter at heavyweight. So long as Overeem's infamous chin holds up, I'll side with his conditioning and skill set to either find a finish or earn a decision down the stretch. Prediction: Overeem inside the distance
