UFC 291 predictions: Who do we think will be the new ‘Baddest Motherf*cker’? (Updated)
(Editor’s note: The Michel Pereira vs. Stephen Thompson fight was canceled after the publication of this story, which was updated to include the replacement main card fight between Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Derrick Lewis.)
The UFC is on the road in Utah this week with the “BMF” title on the line at the top of the bill.
UFC 291 takes place Saturday at Delta Center in Salt Lake City. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC/ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)
Get pick results from our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers, as well as additional analysis, below.
Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland
Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green
Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Records: Derrick Lewis (26-11 MMA, 17-9 UFC), Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-8-1 MMA, 10-6 UFC)
Division: Heavyweight
Betting odds: de Lima -190, Lewis +160
Junkie pick results: Lewis 10, de Lima 1
Odds and ends: This fight was elevated to the main card from the prelims Friday after the Michel Pereira-Stephen Thompson fight was scrapped on the heels of Pereira’s weight miss. Lewis is the underdog to 2-1 favorite de Lima, but Lewis has all but one of our staff members thinking upset.
Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje
Preliminary card picks
Although fights on the prelims don’t count toward the standings in the MMA Junkie staff picks, we still pick each fight. Here are some key results:
Gabriel Bonfim (14-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) is the only unanimous pick on the prelims from our staff members. The -345 betting favorite is 11-0 over Trevin Giles (16-4 MMA, 7-4 UFC) for their welterweight fight.
Although they weren’t unanimous, other prelim fighters have big leads from our pickers. Roman Kopylov (10-2 MMA, 2-2 UFC) is 10-1 at middleweight over Claudio Ribeiro (11-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC). Jake Matthews (18-6 MMA, 11-6 UFC) is 10-1 at welterweight over Darrius Flowers (12-5-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC), the lone newcomer on the card. And Miranda Maverick (11-5 MMA, 4-3 UFC) has a 10-1 picks lead over Priscila Cachoeira (12-4 MMA, 4-4 UFC) in their card-opening women’s flyweight bout.
Check out all the main card picks below.
UFC 291 main card picks
Poirier | Blachowicz | de Lima | Ferguson | Chiesa | |
MMA Junkie readers’ | 
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Simon Samano |
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Nolan King |
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Matt Erickson | 
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Matthew Wells |
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Ken Hathaway  2018, 2022 Champion |
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Mike Bohn 2014 Champion |
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George Garcia |
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Farah Hannoun |
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Brian Garcia 2017 Champion |
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Abbey Subhan |
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Danny Segura |
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For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 291.
