MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 283.

UFC 283 takes place Saturday at Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ABC and early prelims on ESPN+.

Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1 MMA, 10-2-1 UFC)

Deiveson Figueiredo

Staple info:

• Height: 5’5″ Age: 35 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 68″

• Last fight: Decision win over Brandon Moreno (Jan. 22, 2022)

• Camp: Team Figueiredo (Brazil)

• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai

• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ 2x UFC flyweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Regional grappling accolades
+ 9 KO victories
+ 8 submission wins
+ 11 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Well-timed right hands/uppercuts
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Slicing elbows from multiple ranges
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Improved wrestling ability
+ Transitions well from topside
^ Dangerous strikes and submissions
+/- 1-1-1 in series with Moreno

Brandon Moreno (20-6-2 MMA, 8-3-2 UFC)

Brandon Moreno

Staple info:

• Height: 5’7″ Age: 29 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 70″

• Last fight: TKO win over Kai Kara-France (July 30, 2022)

• Camp: Fortis MMA (Texas/Las Vegas)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC flyweight champ/interim titleholder
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 4 KO victories
+ 11 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace & pressure
+ Accurate left hook
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Hard leg and head kicks
^ Works well off of the lead side
+ Improved wrestling ability
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Solid scrambles and submissions
+/- 1-1-1 in series with Figueiredo

Point of interest: Fourth time's the charm?

Jan 22, 2022; Anaheim, California, USA; Brandon Moreno (red gloves) competes against Deiveson Figueiredo (blue gloves) during UFC 270 at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The co-main event for UFC 283 features the fourth title fight between [autotag]Deiveson Figueiredo[/autotag] and [autotag]Brandon Moreno[/autotag].

Their first fight at UFC 256 was an impromptu affair that turned into an all-out war. For my money, Figueiredo scored the more damaging strikes through four of the five rounds, landing hard kicks while looking to counter Moreno’s jab over the top.

Both men demonstrated good bodywork. But Moreno’s heart and durability helped him push through some hard fouls in the process of making it a competitive fight down the stretch.

The rematch happened the following year at UFC 263, where Figueiredo was favored to defend his title. Unfortunately for Figueiredo, the champion suffered yet another rough weight cut, appearing to be slower and more reluctant to strike right out of the gate.

Not only was Moreno able to establish more of a kicking initiative, but he was also able to drop and stun Figueiredo on multiple occasions with a jab, eventually submitting the Brazilian in the third round.

Figueiredo looked a bit closer to form in their trilogy fight, which came last year at UFC 270.

Taking back his kicking initiative with a few more feints in tow, Figueiredo was able to find counters to Moreno’s jab and create big moments that helped him seal rounds in what was a competitive contest.

Moreno, to his credit, also had some moments when looking to counter Figueiredo’s kicks, but the Mexican fighter was ultimately too carefree when it came to damage, allowing his foe to get ahead on the cards.

This, of course, only allowed Figueiredo to further get a grasp on the countering dynamic of the fight, eventually earning his title back by unanimous decision.

Figueiredo and Moreno appear to be in peak shape heading into the weekend, so hopefully we can get a definitive result Saturday.

Point of interest: Potential adjustments

Jan 22, 2022; Anaheim, California, USA; Brandon Moreno (red gloves) competes against Deiveson Figueiredo (blue gloves) during UFC 270 at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Since their last meeting, both men have already started making adjustments outside of the cage.

Moreno, more notably, moved his training camp Stateside ahead of his UFC 277 bout with Kai Kara-France to train with James Krause and company at Glory MMA.

Moreno won that fight, showing an improved offensive and defensive awareness of kicks in the process. Nevertheless, it should be noted Moreno still took a decent amount of damage in under 15 minutes (though I’d argue that’s more of a credit to Kara-France’s skills and game plan than it is an indictment of Moreno’s game).

I’ll also be curious to see if Moreno keeps the more-narrow stance that he showed off in his last contest considering that he’ll be making yet another camp change.

Forced to move on from Glory MMA due to the ongoing gaming investigation involving Krause and others, Moreno now finds himself working with Fortis MMA’s head coach, Sayif Saud.

Not only is Saud a good coach and game planner, but he’s also an enthusiastic cornerman who constantly reminds his fighters to keep their numbers up and to stick to the plan. And considering how Moreno’s last fight against Figueiredo played out, Saud may arguably be a perfect fit for his corner.

You also can argue Figueiredo’s pace left a bit to be desired last time out, which makes me curious to see what the current champ has in store.

Despite coming up with a solid game plan that involved feints, leg kicks and distance management (seeming staples of the Fight Ready camp), Figueiredo appears to have stayed in Brazil in order to prepare for this proverbial home game.

“Deus Da Guerra” has reportedly done some crosstraining with Charles Oliveira and his Chute Boxe team, so I’ll be curious to see if any noticeable changes or additions are made to Figueiredo’s game. That said, if there are any serious changes, I doubt they will come in the grappling department.

Even though I’ve given Figueiredo the wrestling edge in previous breakdowns, it’s not difficult to argue that the grappling in this series has favored Moreno more. Figueiredo may be a better ground striker between the two of them, but no one outside of Alexandre Pantoja has truly been able to dominate Moreno within the grappling realm.

Add in both fighters’ superb scrambling abilities, and I believe that this battle will likely be decided on the feet.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

Deiveson Figueiredo, Brandon Moreno

The oddsmakers and public finally are realizing how tightly matched these two are, listing Moreno -120 and Figueiredo +100 via Tipico Sportsbook.

When looking back at this series for potential common threads, I noticed that the fighter who seized the kicking initiative early was the one who ended up finding more success down the stretch. I also previously noted that extended exchanges favored Moreno in practice, which is likely why Figueiredo was a bit convoluted when it came to retreats and pacing in their last contest.

As I said in previous breakdowns, Moreno is the better counter striker in extended exchanges, which – coupled with his durability – is something that forces Figueiredo to walk a fine line when it comes to his winning conditions.

Although Figueiredo has proven that he can still win in spite of this dynamic and other obstacles, I still have a hard time forecasting his fights with any confidence at this stage of his career.

Not only does Figueiredo seem to drain himself in drastic weight cuts to hit the flyweight limit, but the Brazilian is now 35 years old and has arguably shown some signs of durability issues as Moreno – despite coming up short the last time out – has quietly started to take over the steering as the finishing threat in this series.

For that reason, I’ll semi-reluctantly side with Moreno to do more down the stretch for a decision win – but don’t be surprised to see a finish if Figueiredo looks rough on the scales the day prior.

Prediction: Moreno by decision

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Story originally appeared on MMA Junkie