Two for one: Why Louisville basketball is back in the NET rankings basement despite 4 wins
The Louisville men's basketball team was as far as one could get from making the NCAA Tournament in Year 1 under Kenny Payne.
A lot has changed roster-wise since that abysmal 4-28 season came to an end. But you know how the saying goes.
U of L (4-4, 0-1 ACC) on Monday again found itself last among high-major teams when the NCAA released its first NET rankings of 2023-24, coming in at 279th out of 362, despite needing less than a month to match last season's win total.
It's only a sign of progress — and a microscopic one, at that — when you consider the Cardinals finished last season ranked 315th on the NET, which is the primary tool used to determine the selection and seeding of teams for March Madness.
Otherwise, it's hard to overlook the fact that the 2023-24 team, which Payne billed as the "first step in many of rebuilding," is starting where the 2022-23 squad left off, no matter how skewed the rankings might be this early — see No. 2 BYU, which is No. 8 on KenPom.com and No. 13 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, and No. 16 Kansas, which is No. 10 and No. 3, respectively.
For reference, here are the teams standing between Louisville and the next closest from a high-major conference, Vanderbilt (276th):
No. 277 Austin Peay (Atlantic Sun), 1-6
No. 278 Eastern Washington (Big Sky), 0-6
"We don't have the respect of the country, or from anyone, that we feel like we deserve," Brandon Huntley-Hatfield told The Courier Journal after Sunday's seven-point loss at Virginia Tech. "But it's OK; because we're coming and we're gonna figure it out. And I feel like, once we put it together and figure it out, it's going to be very hard to stop us."
If you're wondering why the Governors (No. 271 on KenPom) and the Eagles (No. 207) fared better than the Cards (No. 161) in the first NET rankings of the season, here's a quick breakdown of how they're generated.
The NET evaluates the quality of wins and losses by creating a Team Value Index, which the NCAA describes as a "result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home," and by taking into account teams' net efficiency ratings — adjusted for strength of schedule.
Wins and losses are then classified in quadrants based on where games are played and opponents' NET rankings:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
All of Louisville's wins have come against Quad 4 opponents at the KFC Yum! Center, meaning they've done little to move the needle. It has one loss apiece between the quadrants, including a Quad 4 loss to No. 214 Chattanooga.
Eastern Washington, on the other hand, has not yet played a Quad 4 game; it has three Quad 1 losses, two Quad 2 losses and one Quad 3 loss, all of which were on the road. Austin Peay's lone win falls under Quad 4, but it has played more games against the top three quadrants than the Cards have wins against the bottom rung.
In short, the way U of L went about scheduling is good for building confidence after hitting rock bottom in Year 1. It is not good, however, for building an NCAA Tournament resume, especially when it has needed second-half comebacks to fend off three mid-major opponents on its home court.
Up next: another Quad 4 game, tipping off at 2 p.m. Saturday in Chicago, against No. 267 DePaul.
Assessing Ty-Laur Johnson's impact on the court — and the bench
After derailing his Nov. 29 postgame news conference with the story of Ty-Laur Johnson being unsure about playing against Bellarmine due to a lack of specific compression tights, Payne stated the obvious about the freshman point guard from Brooklyn: "We are a different team with him."
Johnson, playing 50.9% of Louisville's available minutes through the first eight games of his collegiate career, is averaging nine points on 41.3% shooting with a team-high 26 assists against 20 turnovers. His 32.1% assist rate ranks 65th in the country and fifth in the ACC on KenPom; while his 1.3 assist/turnover ratio is good for 19th in the league.
"We need him on the floor," starting point guard Skyy Clark said after the Bellarmine game, "because he really gets us going."
Johnson's on-off splits from CBBAnalytics.com further illustrate Clark's point, with some room for improvement:
The good
U of L is averaging 17.8 more points per 100 possessions when Johnson is on the court (115.6) than when he's sitting on the bench (97.8).
The difference he makes in points per 40 minutes (+14.4) is the highest on the team and ranks among the 94th percentile across DI.
Louisville's effective field-goal percentage improves from 44.9% to 48.1% during Johnson's minutes.
His quickness off the dribble, combined with his court vision while driving, makes the Cards a much better team at the rim. They're shooting 64.4% when he's in the game vs. 53.3% when he isn't.
And then there's the 25.9 fouls drawn per 40 minutes when Johnson is playing. U of L's free-throw attempt rate skyrockets from 35% to 58.8%.
The bad
Louisville is giving up 14.4 more points per 100 possessions when Johnson is on the court (112.9).
Opponents' effective field-goal percentage improves from 46.2% to 52.7% when he's in vs. when he's on the bench.
Johnson is still learning how to defend without fouling. He's being whistled for 2.6 per game, which results in U of L fouls per 40 minutes increasing from 17.3 to 19.9 and opponents' free-throw attempt rate jumping from 28.4% to 42.2% during his minutes.
MJ Collins' big game highlights a worrisome trend
Before scoring a career-high 20 points to lead Virginia Tech to victory Sunday, MJ Collins was in quite the slump.
The sophomore guard entered the game averaging 3.4 points on 24.2% (8-for-33) shooting and had not made a shot from 3-point range. Against Louisville, he shot 50% and went 3 for 3 from beyond the arc.
When asked what was different about Collins' game Sunday vs. every other one to that point, Hokies head coach Mike Young started his answer by saying, "I don't know."
Most of the credit should go to Collins for putting the work in and finally turning a corner. But Louisville's defense over the past five games has allowed teams' second-, third-, fourth- and/or fifth-best options to go off:
Against Bellarmine, whose leading scorer was injured, U of L let the Knights' Alec Pfriem, Garrett Tipton and Bash Wieland combine for 50 points on 43.2% shooting. The trio of guards entered the game averaging a combined 24.6 points per contest.
During an overtime win over New Mexico State, which was also without its leading scorer due to injury, the Cards surrendered a career-high 20 points on 64.3% shooting to Jordan Rawls (G). Entering the game, he was averaging only 6.1 points and coming off an 0-for-6 performance against Southern Illinois.
Indiana's Xavier Johnson (G), averaging 12 points per game at the time, bounced back from a four-point outing against UConn at the Empire Classic by leading the Hoosiers to victory over Louisville with a team-high 14 points, nine of which came at the free-throw line.
And Texas forward Kadin Shedrick still hasn't topped his 27 points on 11-for-15 shooting against the Cards in Game 1 of the Empire Classic. He was averaging only 10 per contest entering the game but is now second on the team with 14.2.
Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville basketball: Kenny Payne's team at bottom of NET rankings
