Top NFL Prospects with Injury Red Flags
Ahead of the NFL draft, Inside Injuries had analyzed the Injury Risk of all of the top players. Here are the ones with the most concern entering Draft day. Some players should be fine by the start of the season while others will have lingering concerns throughout their career.
Josh Rosen QB, UCLA
Overall Injury Risk: High
Concerning Injuries: 2 concussions (2017), right shoulder surgery for nerve damage (2016)
Josh Rosen had two diagnosed concussions in 2017, and in 2016 he underwent surgery on his throwing surgery to repair nerve damage. He comes with quite a bit of risk for someone who is going to be one of the first players selected.
Josh Allen QB, Wyoming
Overall Injury Risk: High
Concerning Injuries: right shoulder AC sprain (2017), right clavicle fracture (2015)
It’s never good to see throwing shoulder injuries to a quarterback before they ever make an NFL start. Josh Allen has quite a few to his name. In 2017 he missed time with an AC sprain, and he has fractured his right clavicle twice. In his first career start at Wyoming in 2015, he broke it in 7 places. Allen still has a plate and eight screws in there from surgery. We have seen plenty of quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo suffer repeat clavicle fractures; let’s just hope Allen can avoid yet another fracture. Scouts should be a lot more concerned about Allen’s injury history than they are letting on.
Baker Mayfield QB, Oklahoma
Overall Injury Risk: Elevated
Concerning Injuries: multiple concussions
While most of the concussion talk has been around Josh Rosen, Mayfield does have multiple concussions to his name. Once a player has concussion issues, they are more prone to future concussions and the recovery can take longer each time. His style of play also leaves him more vulnerable to big hits. It’s something to consider on draft day.
Roquan Smith LB, Georgia
Overall Injury Risk: Elevated
Concerning Injuries: hamstring strain (2018)
There were quite a few players who weren’t 100% at the Combine due to hamstring problems, and Smith was one of them. He ran an impressive 4.51 40-yard-dash but experienced tightness after the run. He was able to show off his speed and doesn’t have a history of hamstring strains, so this isn’t a major red flag. If he can show up to rookie minicamp 100% and makes it through the week without any problems, he will drop back to a Low Injury Risk. But for now, we will continue to monitor him.
Vita Vea DT, Washington
Overall Injury Risk: Elevated
Concerning Injuries: hamstring strain (2018)
Vea was another player who injured his hamstring at the Combine. Vea Was hurt running the 40 and couldn’t participate in any other drills except for the bench press. He then missed Washington’s pro day a week later. This injury needs anywhere from 2-4 weeks to heal, so it was no surprise that he needed more time. Vea should now be 100%, but if he isn’t a full participant at rookie minicamp, our level of concern will greatly increase. Vea should be good to go and back at a Low Injury Risk by the start of the season, but we need to watch him for now.
Rashaan Evans LB, Alabama
Overall Injury Risk: High
Concerning Injuries: right groin tear (2017), left groin strain (2016)
Evans’ groin injury last season was much more serious than was originally reported. Evans said that the muscle was ripped off of the bone, yet he returned just three weeks later. While this injury alone would be somewhat concerning, he also suffered a left groin strain in 2016. This could be an indication that Evans’ is at a high risk of future groin problems or other lower body muscle strains. If he can stay healthy he has an incredibly high ceiling, but there’s a lot of risk here for whoever drafts him.
Leighton Vander Esch LB, Boise State
Overall Injury Risk: Elevated
Concerning Injuries: pinched nerve in neck (2016)
There are reports floating around that some teams have removed Vander Esch from their draft boards due to medical concerns. He missed half of the 2016 season due to a pinched nerve in his neck and now continues to wear a neck collar. Sure, he isn’t the only player to wear one, but it is a red flag. This is one of those situations where teams need to be confident in their medical staff, but there is some risk here. Neck issues are always a concern and don’t just disappear because he made it through one season without any reported issues.
Connor Williams G, Texas
Overall Injury Risk: Elevated
Concerning Injuries: left knee meniscus tear + MCL and PCL sprain
Entering his final college season, Williams was viewed as one of the top offensive lineman for the 2018 draft. But a serious knee injury and inconsistent play has lead to a slide down draft boards. Williams tore the meniscus in his left knee and also damaged the MCL and PCL early in the season. He did not undergo surgery and missed 7 weeks. Williams said he previously tore the meniscus in high school but didn’t undergo surgery then either. While it may have been a small tear, it is still a concern going forward. At some point his knee will act up again, and it could eventually lead to surgery.
Josh Sweat DE, Florida State
Overall Injury Risk: Elevated
Concerning Injuries: meniscus tear (2017), dislocated left knee & torn ACL (2014)
A serious knee injury back in 2014 almost ended Sweat’s football career. The dislocated knee lead to a torn ACL, MCL and PCL, and he was fortunate to avoid a more serious problem such as a damaged artery. Sweat bounced back and was able to play in his freshman season at FSU. He was close to 100% in his first two season, but then a he injured his knee again in 2017, this time a meniscus tear. He underwent surgery and was back on the field two weeks later. This isn’t a very invasive surgery, but his history of knee injuries does lead to an Elevated Injury Risk.
Billy Price OL, Ohio State
Overall Injury Risk: Elevated
Concerning Injuries: partially torn pectoral (2018)
While participating in the bench press at the Combine, Price suffered a partially torn pectoral. He did need to undergo surgery, and our algorithm shows an Optimal Recovery Time around 4-5 months. That means he should be able to participate at training camp, although whoever drafts him will want to bring him along slowly. Price already has full range of motion and is starting to do some very light weight training. This injury will cause him to slide down draft boards, and likely out of the first round, but he has a good shot at being ready to go week 1.
Nick Nelson CB, Wisconsin
Overall Injury Risk: High
Concerning Injuries: torn meniscus (2018)
The biggest reason Nelson is High Risk is due to the recency of the injury. If the cartilage was just trimmed during surgery, then he should have more than enough time to be ready to go at the start of training camp in July (Optimal Recovery Time is around 6-8 weeks). He may not be quite at 100%, but by week 1 he will be.
Sony Michel RB, Georgia
Overall Injury Risk: High
Concerning Injuries: left knee sprain (2017), left ankle sprain (2017), left forearm fracture (2016), fractured shoulder blade (2014), torn ACL (2011)
When we talk about UGA running backs, Nick Chubb tends to get most of the attention, especially as it relates to injuries. But Michel comes with plenty of his own injury concerns. When healthy, Michel is one of the most explosive playmakers available in this year’s draft, but with so many injuries to his name, there’s no telling when he will end up with yet another problem that will slow him down.
Nick Chubb RB, Georgia
Overall Injury Risk: Low
Concerning Injuries: ankle sprain (2016), PCL, MCL and LCL tear (2015)
People might assume that Nick Chubb comes with a lot of risk, but over two years removed from his gruesome knee injury, he is no longer a High Injury Risk. While he avoided a torn ACL, he did tear the other three knee ligaments with the PCL being the most concerning.
Anthony Miller WR, Memphis
Overall Injury Risk: High
Concerning Injuries: right foot Jones fracture (2017)
Miller is a speedy, physical receiver who is widely viewed as one of the top receivers available in this year’s draft, that is, when he is healthy. Miller suffered the dreaded Jones fracture in his right foot during the Liberty Bowl. Yes, this is the same injury as Dez Bryant, Sammy Watkins, Julio Jones and many other top receivers in the NFL. While many players feel healthy enough to return to the field within around 8 weeks, it often leads to lingering foot problems. Follow-up surgery is often required as well. Miller progressed well enough to participate in his pro day, but as I said, he isn’t out of the woods just yet. He’s a High Injury Risk, and his new team needs to be very cautious with him throughout offseason workouts.
Bo Scarbrough RB, Alabama
Overall Injury Risk: High
Concerning Injuries: right leg fibula fracture (2016), knee sprain (2016), torn ACL (2015), high ankle sprain + fracture (2012), torn ACL (2011)
With multiple ACL tears, a fibula fracture, ankle fracture and other injury concerns, Scarbrough is a very High Injury Risk. Because he is going to be a late round pick, he could be worth the risk. There are far too many lower body injuries going on, so it’s hard to be confident that he can handle the grind of the NFL season. He can be a punishing runner, but any injury will cap his ability to perform on the field.
Kentavius Street DE, N.C. State
Overall Injury Risk: High
Concerning Injuries: torn ACL (2018)
While working out with the Giants earlier this month, Street suffered a torn ACL. He underwent surgery this week and is looking at a 6-9 month recovery. The injury is certainly going to cause a major slide down draft boards, but he could still be a day 3 pick. It’s very possible that we don’t see Street take the field until 2019, even if his recovery goes well.
Think you know everything there is to know about the projected first round draft picks? Think again! We have injury analysis on 1st round prospects.
