Top-5 bad beats from the football season, NFL playoff futures

Frank Schwab counts down the worst beats of the regular NFL and college football seasons... we still can't get over these bad beats. Frank also has a couple of value picks for the Super Bowl and conference title races in the NFL.

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Video Transcript

- Welcome to Yahoo Sportsbook Daily. It is January 10th, 2022. I'm your betting guide, Frank Schwab. And today, we're going to put a bow on the regular season with the worst beats of the year and a few play-off futures as well for the NFL. Let's look at the top five bad beats of the football season. Hopefully you don't have any traumatic flashbacks, but you probably will because likely, you were on at least one of these games.

Let's start at number five. We have to go to week 15 of the NFL season's Bears, Vikings on Monday Night Football. If you had the Bears plus 7, plus 7 and 1/2, you got a touchdown you needed finally at the end of the game. The Bears struggled so much in the red zone to score at all, but you finally got that touchdown, last play of the game. Justin Fields hits Jesper Horsted for a touchdown on the last play of the game.

But then remember, the NFL has the rule where you don't have to kick an extra point if it doesn't matter. The game ends 17-9. If you had that Bears ticket, you're just left frustrated at the end of that game. A tough one for all the Bears backers there.

At number four, we go to the college game. Kentucky covered somehow against Georgia, they're plus 21 and 1/2. And Georgia led 30-7 with 11:27 left on the clock. Remember, Georgia has the best defense in college football. But the ensuing drive by Kentucky takes 11 minutes and 23 seconds. Kentucky converted a third down and a fourth down, a couple more third downs, another fourth down. Georgia's defense simply couldn't get off the field, and then [? London ?] Robinson scored on third down from the 1-yard line in the final seconds. A really really tough beat if you had Georgia minus 21 and 1/2 that day, I'll tell you that.

Going to number three, we go all the way back to the NFL opener-- week one, San Francisco at Detroit. The 49ers led 31-10 at halftime, 38-10 with less than five minutes left in the third quarter. You had this one wrapped up if you're on the 49ers in this game, right?

But instead, the Lions come all the way back and lose by just eight points. They scored two touchdowns in the final minute and 53. They needed both two-point conversions to cover, and-- much to the chagrin of San Francisco backers-- they got both of them. A successful onside kick by Detroit with a botched fumble recovery by George Kittle, who has some of the best hands of football-- also is to blame for this one. A really, really tough beat if you had the 49ers all the way back in week one.

Back to the college game for number two, and it's Boise State minus 13 and 1/2. They're up 16 in the final seconds of this game. Wyoming had done nothing, they're down 23-7, backed up in their own territory. You've got nothing to worry about, right? Wrong. The Wyoming Cowboys hit a short pass and the receiver just runs up the field. Boise State doesn't have much interest in tackling him.

It's the end of the game, final few seconds. Goes all the way, houses it for the touchdown, and somehow, some way, those Boise State minus 13 and 1/2 tickets are ripped up with one of the most unlikely touchdowns of the college football season in this bad beat segment.

But number one, there was no doubt about this one-- Florida State, Clemson. Let's set the scene here. If you had the under 47 and 1/2 or Florida State plus 9 and 1/2, you're feeling good. Last play of the game, just running out the clock. And oh my goodness, we get one of the worst lateral plays.

We all hate this-- Scott Van Pelt of ESPN has cleverly nicknamed it pitchy, pitchy, woo, woo. And here it goes-- Clemson makes a completion downfield and then starts the pitch play back, back, back. And you're going all the way back into your own territory until finally, there's a fumble. Clemson recovers it, gets pushed into the end zone, basically. Not only did that ruin the under, it also ruined any Florida State tickets plus 9 and 1/2 because Clemson goes over that. They cover.

What a bad beat. Both bad beats on one play. I hope you didn't have a parlay with that. That would have been really disgusting. But one of the bad beats you're ever going to see and definitely the worst one of this football regular season.

Now let's go to some futures for the play-offs in the NFL, and we'll start with Super Bowl winners. I've got a couple of them here I like-- definitely the Dallas Cowboys at 12-1 stand out. Cowboys were everybody's favorite team a few weeks ago after they pounded Washington in a nationally televised game. Then they came back and lost to the Cardinals. Look, that's not a bad loss. Even at home, Cardinals are a quality team. They may not have looked that way in week 18. Cardinals aren't a bad team, it's not a bad loss. Cowboys got back on track in week 18 beating a Philadelphia team that was resting.

And I still do believe the Cowboys can make a run. All the ingredients are there, we know their upside. And 12-1 odds here are pretty good. You're giving them better odds than the Packers, the Rams, the Buccaneers, and I don't think that's priced right. I think the Cowboys 12-1, you'll be happy to holding that ticket. I think the Cowboys can make a run here, that is pretty good value on them.

I also want to make a shout out to the Tennessee Titans. Look, nobody wants to pick the Titans during the Super Bowl, right? But the fact is they're the number one seed in the AFC and they're that way for a reason. Could be getting Derrick Henry back, they're two home wins away from a Super Bowl, and a plus 800-- which is tied for the fourth best odds in the NFL-- I think they're a little bit underpriced. Not crazy so, but the Titans have been disrespected this whole season. I've done it too, but getting Derrick Henry back is a huge deal for them.

And again, when you're the one seed, you have a big advantage. From 1990 to 2019, 80% of Super Bowl teams came from teams that got the [? buy. ?] Now, only one team in each conference gets that advantage. The Titans have that edge in the AFC. Do I expect them to win the Super Bowl? Not necessarily, but plus 800 is pretty good on any number one seed, so I'd actually punch a ticket on the Titans here.

I also want to make one more play, and that's the Bengals plus 900 win the AFC. The Bengals have the upside to make a run. We've seen quarterback Joe Burrow really heat up late in the season. He's got the weapons around him. Their defense is a little underrated. The Bengals here at plus 900, tied for the fourth best odds in the AFC, I think that there's value on that team. That is a fun ticket to have because this Cincinnati team could make a run. They could really get going, fun team to root for. And if Joe Burrow is going to continue the play he showed late in the season, I think that Bengals AFC ticket at 9-1 has a chance to cash.

So to recap, here's what we got. Dallas 12-1 to win a Super Bowl, little bit of a bet on the Titans plus 800-- just because they're the number one seed, I'd take pretty much any number one seed at 8-1-- and also the Bengals 9-1 to win the AFC. Hoping they continue their hot streak from late in the season. You can follow me on Twitter over @YahooSchwab and follow all of our content over at Yahoo Sportsbook.

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