Tiering the Texans: Where do Houston players rank in the rebuild?

Mike Sando of The Athletic dropped his annual “QB Tiers” article. The premise revolves around 50 NFL personnel workers, either coaches, scouts or general managers, ranking all 32 quarterbacks into different groupings. The exercise is designed to provide more insight and clarity than simply trying to rank the league starters 1-32 while highlighting value at a position that offers different ways to win.

With that idea in mind, the thought of hypothetically “tiering” the current Houston Texans’ roster and their respective values to the team is an interesting one. Plenty has been made of trying to determine the one or two most valuable pieces on the roster but little has been said of how the team could be collectively grouped.

For a roster that’s so young and in the middle of a rebuild, it may not be fair to build tiers in comparison to the rest of the league. However, the following players are ranked exclusively within the context of Nick Caserio’s rebuild over the last two years. Each tier will address how players are expected to contribute in 2022 and how likely they are to contribute to the future beyond that in 2023 and 2024.

Contracts and potential trade probability are not taken into account in this exercise. This is a measure of talent and what a player has shown at an NFL level.  Players such as Laremy Tunsil, who Houston may ultimately decide to trade rather than extend, are not discounted for their current contract or the uncertainty regarding any future negotiations. Positional value, and how coaching and the league works around it, is taken into account when determining future value.

With these parameters set, here is how the Texans roster may be ranked.

Tier 1: Anticipated contribution in both 2022 and the future, regardless of circumstances

(AP Photo/Jeff Lewis)

• Brandin Cooks

• Jonathan Greenard

• Laremy Tunsil

• Kenyon Green

• Derek Stingley Jr.

These five players are as theoretically “bullet proof” in the grand scheme of the Houston Texans rebuild as anyone on the team. All five would likely start or at least see significant rotational minutes if traded to another club and are amongst the most talented current players on Houston’s roster.

These players should be foolproof to coaching fallacy or any competition. Cooks has gone for 1,000 yards on four different teams at this point in his career and Tunsil has been regarded as one of the league’s best left tackles for years. The two of them would start amongst the top-3 receivers or on the offensive line for all 32 NFL clubs. Greenard has flashed the speed to consistently find sacks at the NFL level and, regardless of future scheme, should continue to be successful in Houston and would be considered a valuable edge rusher anywhere.

Stingley and Green are yet to play an NFL snap; however, they were selected in the first round for a reason. Stingley is one of the most talented corners to enter the league in the last decade and, barring injury, could make a real impact on any NFL defense. Green is the type of run mauling right guard that teams need to win football games in December and January. Their talent, and the straightforward nature of their positions, make them safe bets to contribute to winning football in Houston both in 2022 and beyond.

These players represent the most solidified foundation of how the Houston Texans are currently structured.

Tier 2: Expected contribution in both 2022 and the future, somewhat dependent on surrounding circumstances

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• Jalen Pitre

• Christian Harris

• John Metchie

• Nico Collins

• Tytus Howard

The next group of Texans on the list still certainly represent a large part of the team’s foundation moving forward. These are young players who have either been signed or drafted with the explicit intent that they will contribute towards the future of the team for a long time. The differentiating factor between Tier 1 and Tier 2, however, is that the players in this group have fair questions regarding their potential for success in the league.

Pitre tops the list as the most talented and unique of the group. He was the Big 12’s only defensive All-American for a reason and an absolute terror at Baylor last season. However, his projection to the league raises some questions. Pitre spent much of his time at Baylor playing the STAR, a role that doesn’t exist within Lovie Smith’s traditional Tampa 2, he’s not the traditional high safety many are trying to project him as. Smith’s ability to tailor his defenses for Pitre may be the difference between a Pro Bowler and a good starter for Houston. In a similar fashion, Harris was a monster blitzing at Alabama but struggled with run discipline and is somewhat undersized. The defensive staff will have to find the right role for Harris if they want the 75th overall selection in the draft to succeed.

Collins and Metchie are far more talented than their offensive skill position counterparts and are accompanied with high draft capital investments by the current general manager. For that reason, they qualify for Tier 2, but each have their own questions. Metchie will spend 2022 fighting his battle with APL (Houston is praying for you) and will have spent two years away from football by the time next season comes. Collins needs to put his size and speed combination together and finally produce at the NFL level to be the cornerstone piece they potentially view him as. Either translating their immense talent and solid college production into the full professional potential is far from promised.

Howard sneaks into Tier 2, and has looked every part of an NFL tackle when given the opportunity. Houston also solidified their desire to see Howard on the edge when they selected Green to play guard. Howard’s turbulent development curve up to this point prevent him from slotting as a Tier 1 player but his talent and the team’s clear commitment to seeing him succeed in 2022 place him in this group.

Tier 3: Expected 2022 contribution with possible future impact dependent on circumstances

(AP Photo/Justin Rex )

• Davis Mills

• Dameon Pierce

• Brevin Jordan

• Garrett Wallow

• Christian Kirksey

• Maliek Collins

• Roy Lopez

• Marlon Mack

• Jonathan Owens

• Tavierre Thomas

• Desmond King

• MJ Stewart

• Ogbonnia Okoronkwo

• Rasheem Green

• Cameron Johnston

Mills is listed at Tier 3, but hold off on the outrage. The players listed in Tier 3 all have a few things in common. They’re young players (all under 27 except for Kirksey) with talent that has flashed for periods in the league. However, in all of these cases, there are legitimate reasons to believe they may not have staying power in Houston’s long-term plans.

For Mills, the factors are largely outside of his control that prevent him from landing in Tier 2. We have a very limited NFL sample size from Mills and an almost smaller view of how he performed in college. More importantly, he lacks the draft capital to provide the confidence that the team won’t look elsewhere at quarterback if the season goes south. Mills may be extremely talented but if he’s unable to will the Texans to wins in 2022, he could find himself in a position where the team has to consider drafting a quarterback. The volatility of the QB landscape in the NFL, Houston’s likely poor outlook for 2022, and the upcoming elite quarterback class in the 2023 draft make it almost impossible to declare Mills’ future confidently in any direction.

Jordan, Wallow, Lopez, and Pierce were all drafted by the current regime and are all likely starters for the 2022 campaign. Their low draft capital investment, all Day 3 selections, in conjunctions with no flashes of star material (yet) leave them just outside of the second tier. If Houston were to change coaches again, these are players who may get lost in the regime changes. They could also become staple starters at their position, the variance is ultimately what lands them at Tier 3.

The rest of the players in this tier are veterans. Some of them are former starters on other teams and others have come to Houston for the potential to breakout with more playing time. Kirksey is one of the darling veterans of the Texans rebuild and has firmly carved out his role at middle linebacker. Mack has come from Indianapolis hoping to secure the starting position and regain his 1,000-yard rushing form from the 2019 campaign. Thomas, Okoronkwo, Collins, and Owens have all flashed at the professional level but have yet to put it all together. Nobody will be surprised if these players are re-signed to be key contributors in Houston moving forward and nobody will be surprised if Houston decides to go in another direction in 2023. Ultimately, these players’ ceilings and talent keep them above the Tier 4 range.

Tier 4: Expected 2022 contribution with unlikely future impact

(Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

• Ross Blacklock

• Thomas Booker

• Steven Nelson

• Kamu Grugier-Hill

• Andy Janovich

• Mario Addison

• Teagan Quitoriano

• Rex Burkhead

• A.J. Cann

• Justin Britt

• Austin Deculus

• Chris Conley

• Jerry Hughes

• Steven Nelson

• Terrence Brooks

The players listed in Tier 4 are veterans who are expected to carry important roles in the 2022 season but don’t easily project towards the future. Nelson, Cann and Hughes are all likely to open the season as starters on the team but it would be somewhat of a surprise to see them starting in 2023 and beyond. Blacklock was the team’s second round selection in the 2020 NFL draft but has failed to flash thus far in his career and appears to be on the outside looking in at the defensive tackle rotation.

Conley, Burkhead and Grugier-Hill may see significant snaps but none are viewed as the future at their positions and that was evident in Houston’s draft strategy as receiver, running back and weak side linebacker were addressed in the first four rounds.

Late round draft picks Booker, Quitoriano, and Deculus are on the outside looking in as Day 3 selections. They’ll likely be on the team in 2023 but projecting their role is too difficult to estimate anything beyond Tier 4.

These are important players for Houston to get through the 2022 season, field a competitive team, and properly evaluate the youth on their roster. However, in their quest to become a Super Bowl contender, it’s unlikely many of these names stay.

Tier 5: Unlikely to be on the roster in one to two seasons

(AP Photo/Matt Ludtke)

This Tier speaks for itself. Any player not listed before this point will likely be lost eventually to the churn of a rebuilding NFL roster.

That doesn’t mean there won’t be exceptions. Almost certainly someone not listed above will make an impact and find themselves with a key role and staying power within the Texans organization. Finding players like that will be very important if Houston wants to accelerate their process but projecting them is impossible.

The “Texans Tiers” list ends with roughly 25 players who are either expected or hopeful to make an impact in Houston’s ongoing rebuild into the future. An additional 14 players in Tier 4 will play big roles in the 2022 campaign but are much more difficult to project beyond that.

Story originally appeared on Texans Wire