There's no way Eric Rueb's RIIL Girls Basketball State Tournament picks backfire, is there?

As entertaining as the RIIL Girls Basketball Division Tournaments were, the State Tournament might surpass it.

The theme this season has been obvious. While the top teams have established themselves, there isn’t one girls basketball team in the state you’d have 100 percent confidence in winning a game. The sport has been volatile and it’s really come down to who’s the better team on that particular day.

So who’s going to play their best basketball when it matters most? Over the next 10 days, we’ll find out – but that doesn’t mean I can’t take a shot at figuring out what’s going to happen.

Eric Rueb’s 2024 RIIL Girls Basketball State Tournament outlook

Just how crazy will the state tourney be? On the top half of the bracket I see three teams that could make the finals and if you want to get crazy, there’s a fourth I could be talked into. On the bottom half, you could convince me every team minus one – sorry Hope – could end up at the Ryan Center.

Chalk seems to be the most likely outcome on the top half of the bracket, but the bottom half may end up providing the madness you expect in March.

First round predicitions

Starting on the top half of the bracket, we’ll get to the game that I probably have the most confidence in – No. 5 Bay View over No. 12 West Warwick. It’s a tough matchup for the Wizards, but it’s a winnable game for a team that hasn’t really played consistent all season. Defense will decide this thing and that’s where the Bengals shine.

It’s the third time No. 8 Chariho and No. 9 Mount St. Charles have faced off this season and the fourth if you count the coin toss that decided their seeding for the Division II Tournament. They split their season series, the Super Chargers won the coin flip to earn the No. 3 seed, which helped them reach the semifinals. Mount will come in with an edge, but Chariho’s the pick to win on its home court.

Ponaganset’s reward for being the No. 4 seed? Perhaps the most interesting matchup of the first round. No. 13 Toll Gate is not your typical Division III team. Adeline Areson is a 6-footer with guard skills that plays physical and the Chieftains don’t have a player who can match her. They have a difference-maker on defense with Dulce Garcia that will make All-Stater Jaina Yekelchik’s life difficult. I think Ponaganset’s superior athleticism and defense ends up being the difference and it wins, but if the Chieftains aren’t careful this is going to be the upset of the tourney.

Getting to the bottom half, we’ll be quick with No. 3 Moses Brown over No. 14 Hope. These two teams are friendly and for Hope, this game is more about celebrating their achievement than winning. It’s a great game for the Quakers, who can work out some of the kinks from their D-II title game loss to Pawtucket and start building some momentum toward a run at the Ryan Center.

Staying on the bottom of the bottom half, I’ll ride with No. 6 Pawtucket over No. 11 Cranston West. If the Falcons get hot from outside and Maia Riccio does her thing inside, this pick could end up backfiring tremendously. However, I like what Pawtucket’s bigs did in the D-II title game and I’d expect the same approach vs. Riccio. Armani Rivera and Tiyara Gonzalez will keep things running smooth and the Bucket gets the dub.

I’m taking No. 7 La Salle over No. 10 Portsmouth because I don’t think Grace Martone will let the Rams lose this one. When the money was on the line in the D-I semis, Martone showed up big and nearly carried La Salle to a win. Which Patriots team shows up for this one will determine their fate; if the second-half Portsmouth team shows up it’ll win, but if it looks more like it did in the first half of the season it will be in trouble.

Quarterfinal breakdown

No. 1 Barrington moves on over Chariho. The Eagles’ big three are better than anyone the Chargers have seen before and while Chariho has been solid defensively, Barrington’s size and athleticism is going to be the difference.

While I’m hesitant to pick Ponaganset after saying it might lose in the first round, I’m taking the Chieftains over Bay View in the quarterfinals. Is this a homer pick? Perhaps. Bay View is going to try and turn this game into a low-scoring grind, but on a bigger court I’m going to take the team that can has an elite scoring guard and that’s Yekelchik and the Chieftains.

Moving to the bottom half, I’m going to take La Salle over North Kingstown. At full strength I’m taking the Skippers without thinking about it, but NK’s offense struggled without Shea Kalin in the lineup and if she’s unavailable for this one, someone will need to fill that void as the team’s No. 2 behind Jaelyn Holmes. Also, I’m terrified of picking against Martone. La Salle keeps this in the 30s and pulls out this dub.

Moses Brown is my pick in the rematch with Pawtucket. A lot of things went wrong in the D-II final and fouls were one of them. If the Quakers’ guards avoid foul trouble – tough to do against Pawtucket’s aggressive, athletic guards – I like their chances. Vivian Stone is a player I think can have a sneaky big game in the rematch and Lauren Bousquet is doing to be locked in for this one. Pawtucket can certainly win – they showed as much in the D-II final – but I’ll be curious to see how they counter Moses Brown’s counters.

Semifinal selections

Let’s get crazy.

With the talent it has, when Ponaganset plays its best basketball, it’s the best team in the state. Yekelchik has turned into RI’s best pure scorer and they’ve got the pieces in place all over the court. The Eagles’ big three is a problem – namely Isys Dunphy, who’s size and athleticism makes her a matchup nightmare – but I’m riding with the Chieftains. For me, this game is the state title game.

If my bracket proves correct, I’m taking Moses Brown over La Salle. The Bousquet-Martone matchup will be incredible to watch. The difference, for me, is the Quakers’ speed and athleticism at the guard positions. La Salle has better basketball players, but in a game like this I lean on the team with better athletes. The difference maker for me in this one will be freshman Marielle Nassiff, who’s a future star in this state.

Who will win the 2024 RIIL Girls State Championship?

I’m taking Ponaganset.

Is this a homer pick? Maybe. But all winter all I’ve heard from the Chieftains – who coach and officiate in the community youth league my daughters play in – is that I never pick them to win anything. That changes now.

Ponaganset has the pieces that make a state champ. Yekelchik is an elite scorer. Anna Nerney is the best man defender in RI. Marron Nerney is a future All-Stater. Caroline Rhodes plays as hard as anyone and Kylee Field comes in and just does her job. Riley McCormick and Paige Doolittle fill their role, provide leadership and aren’t afraid of the big stage. Kaitlyn Simoneau and Giuliana Bachini don’t play how freshman are supposed to play. Now it’s time for them to all put it together for one last run.

Now Moses Brown will present problems. I cannot stress how impossibly difficult it will be for the Chieftains to stop Bousquet, who might be the strongest player in RI. The Quakers could try and slow pace; they’re better in halfcourt sets and that would suit them fine in a game like this.

But on a bigger court, Ponaganset gains a significant edge. So that’s why the Chieftains are my pick.

And if this happens I’m expecting to get every single call coaching rec basketball next winter.

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Eric Rueb predictions for the 2024 RIIL Girls Basketball State Tournament