Talking Points: History says Indiana will give Mike Woodson more time to get things right

BLOOMINGTON – Let’s address the question on everyone’s mind.

There is a lot of understandable frustration around Indiana’s season. The Hoosiers have won just four games since the Big Ten restart in the new year. They’ve lost seven of their past nine, and three in a row at home for the first time since the no-fans COVID season. They are on course to finish comfortably in the bottom half of the conference, perhaps as low as bottom four, and even an NIT berth seems a stretch at this point (not that anyone’s desperate for that).

All of which has led to inevitable conversations about the possibility of a coaching change. As things stand today, I do not sense that’s likely.

DOYEL: For IU, the writing is on the wall. But Mike Woodson can't see it — among other things.

INSIDER: IU is just a badly constructed team, waiting for frustrating season's quiet end

On Indiana’s end, Mike Woodson is only coming to the end of year three. Archie Miller got four years. Tom Crean got nine. Mike Davis got six. Of post-Bob Knight coaches, only Kelvin Sampson — for Kelvin Sampson-specific reasons — got a quicker hook.

Woodson signed a contract amendment that handed him a raise of more than $1 million, through additional compensation and also the conversion of some easily triggered bonuses (like APR score) into guaranteed pay. He also received an additional year of buyout protection, though language in the amendment actually eased the year-on-year burden of buying out Woodson’s contract in the event the department wanted to take that action.

Crucially, Woodson received all that without adding years onto his deal. The timeframe of his original contract, signed in 2021 through 2027, remains in place.

Woodson addressed his own long-term thinking in the job earlier this week, when asked about his “mindset” regarding his future.

“I came back to try and put this team in the best position possible, and I’m going to continue to do that,” he said. “I’m almost 66, but I feel good and still move around, and I think I still think well in terms of the game, and I still think I can teach the game.

“I don’t know. There are coaches that are coaching into their 70s. I don’t know if that’s something I’ll do. I don’t know. But at this point I’ll take it a day at a time, a year at a time. I’m not going anywhere any time soon.”

These things are never concrete. Situations can always change. Thinking can always evolve. And for better or worse, there’s still a fair bit of season left to finish before taking big-picture stock either way.

As things stand, though, I do not sense anyone bracing themselves for change. Woodson appears committed to the job, and history says IU will give him more time.

The real-time impact of shooting woes

Maybe this seems obvious, but it’s worth exploring after Wednesday laid bare just how fundamentally Indiana’s shooting issues are undercutting the Hoosiers’ season.

Nebraska is a good offensive team. On its day, very good. Yes, the Huskers have struggled away from home, but this is a team that’s top-five in the Big Ten in league games in effective field goal percentage, 2- and 3-point percentage, and free-throw percentage.

Fred Hoiberg’s team put up 88 on Purdue, 82 at Rutgers, 83 on Ohio State, 80 on Wisconsin, and so on. It’s not surprising to see Nebraska give even a good defensive team trouble.

To its credit, in the first half that got out of hand and ultimately defined Wednesday game, Indiana tried to punch back. The Hoosiers attempted 11 3-pointers in the opening 20 minutes, out of 32 total field goal attempts. That means roughly 34% of their FGAs in the first half were 3s, about 6% higher than their season average.

And they made just one.

In the second half, aggression and assertiveness from Kel’el Ware, Mackenzie Mgbako and others threatened to weaponize the free-throw line during Indiana’s comeback. Instead, the Hoosiers shot just 8-of-15 from the stripe in the second half, and 14-of-24 for the game.

The depth of IU’s shooting issues, and the frankly staggering number of years we’ve been talking about them now, make this discussion feel existential sometimes. But while it’s reductively simple, it is worth just doing the basic math. If Indiana had hit even three of those 3s and one more free throw in the first half, the deficit would have been halved. If the Hoosiers sank eight of those 10 missed free throws across the course of the game, plus three or four of the 17 3s they missed, the outcome could be different entirely.

And that’s just a purely statistical reading. If Indiana makes some of those shots we’re talking about in the first half, Nebraska probably doesn’t score 51 points. Assembly Hall gets involved. Confidence doesn’t bottom out. Effort is better, confidence higher, etc.

Again, I understand this might seem obvious. It’s just instructive sometimes to contextualize the forest with a handful of trees.

Woodson maintains the Hoosiers’ offense is producing good looks that just don’t go in. On balance, he’s probably right. Which means the solution lies outside the scheme.

IU needs to find it, and soon. This has been a problem for far too long, and a drag on a program that’s probably never going to regain a serious competitive level in the Big Ten until said problem is solved.

Indiana basketball 2024-25 scholarship situation

Given this season could end as soon as the Hoosiers exit the Big Ten tournament, triggering an early start to an enormously important offseason, a check-in of the Hoosiers’ scholarship situation seems warranted.

IU carried 12 scholarship players into this season, of a possible 13. Two, Xavier Johnson and Anthony Walker, will exhaust their eligibility when that season is over. Two more, Anthony Leal and Trey Galloway, are seniors holding a COVID year if they wish to use it.

Numerous players could explore NBA opportunities. Kel’el Ware sits atop that list, his name appearing consistently anywhere from mid-first round to high second round across a quick survey of mock drafts. Underclassmen including Mackenzie Mgbako and Malik Reneau could at least test the waters for feedback.

Then there is, of course, the likelihood one or more players will opt to transfer. We won’t speculate on names without hard information behind it, but it’s always safe in the present climate to expect attrition there.

IU has one player, Liam McNeeley, signed in 2024. The Hoosiers’ last established target in the class, Derik Queen, announced his commitment to Maryland on Wednesday.

So, one incoming and two guaranteed outgoing knocks Indiana down to 11 scholarships for next year. If Ware leaves for the draft, that number dips to 10. Any further attrition — be it draft declarations, transfers or even simply players declining their COVID year — pushes the scholarship portion of the roster into single digits.

Mike Woodson and his staff have proven adept in quick-turnaround spring recruitments. Tamar Bates, Malik Reneau and Mackenzie Mgbako all signed with the Hoosiers in the spring of their senior years, after reopening their recruitments for various reasons.

And the portal is an obvious option for any program, much less one needing experience, depth and production, and holding the NIL resources necessary to be aggressive there.

While, again, working to avoid guesswork speculation, it’s not hard to envision a scenario wherein IU needs to add at least four players — be they prep prospects or portal targets — in the spring. Woodson will have serious work to do on his roster if he wants to ensure this season is the exception, not the rule.

ODDS & ENDS

∎ Based on the timing of last weekend’s foray into Adidas alternates, coupled to the presence of high-level executives including John Miller, president of Adidas North America, I think it’s safe to assume IU is entering the final furlong in renewal of its apparel deal. It’s appeared increasingly likely for a while the department will stay with Adidas, which covets Indiana as one of its signature brands, especially in basketball. Final details might still need some ironing out, but I don’t think that’s far away now.

∎ A strong opening weekend, which included a win over ranked Coastal Carolina, in Myrtle Beach landed IU baseball in both Baseball America’s and D1 Baseball’s national polls this week. The Hoosiers clocked in at No. 22 in the former poll, No. 23 in the latter. Based on folks we talked to on hand, the Hoosiers were impressive in their 2-1 weekend start, and they backed that up by pummeling Miami (Ohio) in their home opener Tuesday. This team’s offensive depth has the capacity to give a lot of midweek starters fits.

∎ If you were at all tapped into social media Thursday, you’ll have seen it widely reported EA Sports has confirmed all FBS schools will be included in the forthcoming renewal of its college football franchise. According to ESPN’s Mike Rothstein, athletes can begin opting into being included in the game now. EA will pay $600 to any athlete who provides their name, image and likeness to the game, plus a free copy of the game itself. Per multiple reports, EA will build out further NIL opportunities for select athletes.

Follow IndyStar reporter Zach Osterman on Twitter: @ZachOsterman.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: IU basketball: History says Mike Woodson will get more time as coach