Resources: Yahoo survival pool pick distribution • SurvivorGrid.com
Week 14’s biggest killer: Bears over Bengals (28.64 percent)
Week 14’s biggest success: Packers over Browns (29.33 percent)
My picks so far: Buffalo – Oakland – New England — Seattle — Philadelphia — Atlanta (x) — Minnesota — New Orleans — Jacksonville — Detroit — Kansas City (x) — Cincinnati — LA Chargers — Green Bay/Pittsburgh
If there’s a good thing about being required to make two selections per week, it’s that it frees you from the strategy of trying to sidestep an upset from the week’s biggest underdog.
At this point, there isn’t much value in passing on a heavy favorite on the slight chance they lose and take out a large portion of the opposition. Think of it this way: You’re taking on enough risk with that second pick that there’s no reason to introduce more with the first. Take your win with the crowd favorite if you still have them available and hope the second pick is the one that keeps you alive while drowning the rest of the field.
All of that is to say: Don’t hesitate in picking Baltimore over Cleveland this weekend if you didn’t pick the Ravens over the Browns in Week 2. Baltimore is considered a 77 percent favorite to win by Numberfire and the Browns? Well, they’re the gift that keeps on giving, Clark.
It gets a bit dicey from there. There’s actually lot to like as the Vikings, Saints and Jaguars are all big home favorites. Atlanta and Philadelphia also looks like they’ll survive on the road.
I like the Saints, Vikings, Jaguars, Falcons and Eagles in that order.
If you’ve used them all up (like I have?) Well, there’s the Lions over the Bears on Sunday if you didn’t use Detroit over Cleveland last month, Washington over Arizona or, well, the Panthers over the Packers in Carolina.
No, it’s not ideal to be picking against Aaron Rodgers in his return from injury but at this point I think I’d rather be going with a good team (the Panthers) then staking my season on an inconsistent team that’s been all over the place (Washington and Detroit).
No one ever said this would be easy.