Super Bowl LVI against the spread pick: Bengals vs. Rams is momentum vs. analytics
Analytics isn't a dirty word. It becomes one when a coach goes for it on fourth down and doesn't get it. But advanced statistics are a good way of measuring what teams or players are better or worse than their surface numbers.
Analytics shouldn't be a dirty word for Los Angeles Rams fans before Super Bowl LVI, because most of them indicate the Rams will win a championship on Sunday.
Analytics is not the only word in breaking down a game, team or player either. It's one tool. And the tools are pointing to the Rams over the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI. The Rams are 4.5-point favorites at BetMGM. The spread opened at Rams -3.5, moved to 4 and then 4.5 and hasn't moved since at BetMGM.
The Rams are the better team. The Bengals are one of the lowest rated Super Bowl teams ever in Football Outsiders' DVOA (fourth-worst if a Week 18 game in which Cincinnati rested starters is removed). For the regular season the Rams were the No. 5 team in DVOA and the Bengals were No. 17. The Rams had a better offense (No. 8 vs. No. 18), defense (No. 5 vs. No. 19) and special teams (No. 4 vs. No. 8).
The Rams win the Super Bowl 65.3% of the time in Football Outsiders' simulations. ESPN's FPI gives the Rams a 66.3% to win. Whether you look at Massey-Peabody, USA Today's Sagarin ratings, TeamRankings.com, NumberFire, Pro Football Focus or any other analytical site, the Rams are ranked higher. Sometimes by a wide margin.
But does it matter? The Bengals weren't supposed to beat the Tennessee Titans or Kansas City Chiefs, and here they are. The Bengals are clearly improving, and they're on a roll. Some of that is due to fortune — a referee's inadvertent whistle that was ignored and a last-minute goal-line interception against the Raiders, Ryan Tannehill's turnovers against the Titans, the Chiefs' end-of-half fiasco and a late regulation stop that could have gone either way in the AFC title game — but catching some breaks doesn't eliminate all the positives for a resilient Bengals team.
Joe Burrow is playing fantastic football. Ja'Marr Chase is one of the best receivers in football already, Tee Higgins is one of the best No. 2s, Tyler Boyd is one of the best No. 3s and don't forget about Joe Mixon either. The defense has a dangerous front and some talent in the secondary. Don't sleep on the Bengals. They deserve to be in the Super Bowl. And for that "one of the worst teams to make a Super Bowl by DVOA" stat, four of the six lowest-rated teams before the Bengals won (1987 Washington, 2001 Patriots, 2007 Giants, 2011 Giants) and two lost in the final seconds (2003 Panthers, 2008 Cardinals). Momentum can matter and the Bengals have plenty of it.
And yet, I still think the Rams win and cover the 4.5 points. It is a good team. Being at home for a Super Bowl might not matter in terms of a home crowd, but there is an edge not having to travel. I think Sean McVay will learn from his first Super Bowl failure. And I do believe in analytics.
The Rams are the better team. The Bengals seem to be the one on the magical ride. Sometimes the ride goes all the way to the finish line and results in a championship. I just don't think it happens this time for the Bengals.
Last week: 2-0
Playoffs to date: 10-2
Season to date: 163-120-1
