Stop arguing about fourth-down decisions, the worst current debate in sports: Meet me at the Logo

Please, no more. It’s the worst debate in sports right now. Not LeBron vs. Jordan. Not who the true home run champion is. (It’s Barry, by the way.) The current worst debate in sports has sinisterly bonded generations of NFL fans every Sunday to argue and yell about something they have no control over.

That’s right, the dreaded fourth-down debate.

NFL teams have more data than ever when it comes to deciding when and when not to go for it on fourth down. In general, teams are going for it on fourth down more often than they did in the past. Of the top 10 teams with the most fourth-down attempts in a season since 1991, seven of those 10 are from the 2020 and 2021 seasons. As far as the pure on-field entertainment goes, this has been a great addition to the flow of NFL games. Fourth-down attempts instantly add stakes and tensions to every game and at the end of the day, it’s more fun to watch great players try to eke out a few yards to keep their drive going.

Of course, this hasn't happened without debate. As the pro-attempt arguments continue to make their way into mainstream football discourse, it has become an unavoidable part of NFL broadcasts and, man, these guys seem like the most risk-averse people on the planet. It’s a strange dichotomy to see a bunch of people who put the quality of their lives on the line to play this game shrivel up when it’s time to try and convert a fourth down, but it tracks within the sport's culture. The decision-makers in football tend to be conservative, so they need a little push to get them to see where they might be able to score more points.

On the surface, the reasoning behind going for it on fourth down in a given instance is an innocuous piece of data. Hey, trust your offense to gain a few yards to increase your chances of winning. Of course, on the flip side, missing a fourth-down conversion can put your defense into sticky situations. It’s not really that complicated of a decision, just more about how willing certain people are to take risks during the course of a game.

Here’s where it's become annoying: The math on this has already been figured out and NFL teams are adapting. Still, the pushback on teams going for it on fourth down is loud — and it doesn’t seem like the people pushing back against being more aggressive point out the instances when it works. No strategy is infallible, including punting the ball as time runs down on the clock and hoping your defense and stashed timeouts can get the ball back for you. The people who don’t want to understand how this works never will at this point.

So, why don’t we stop arguing about it all together? This isn’t a big political point where burying it could lead to the harm of others. It’s just a small sample size of plays in a football game. Let’s all agree to disagree on whatever side you believe in and move on — because the NFL has already made this decision. Teams are going to only increase their fourth-down attempts as they continue to learn how advantageous it can be to hold onto the ball. Let’s all stew in our corners, because no one is changing their mind anytime soon.

And if you feel passionately about your right to argue about a fourth-down decision, meet me at the logo about it. Or don’t, because I won’t be there for this one.