Start over? Stay the course? Chicago Bears GM Ryan Poles is nearing a series of landmark decisions

CHICAGO — Certainly Ryan Poles knows the cameras are everywhere, his every move being watched. Analyzed. Interpreted. Debated.

Before Monday’s road matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, Poles was doing his usual pregame speed-walk around the perimeter of the field when he crossed paths with Justin Fields, who was on his way to the locker room. Without breaking stride, Poles gave his quarterback a fist bump and, quite naturally, a Chicago television reporter caught the moment, delivering it promptly to Bears fans, including all the ravenous social media sleuths seeking clues on what the general manager might be considering.

Was there possibly anything in Poles’ stride or Fields’ facial expression to decode?

In the third quarter of the Bears’ 12-10 victory, the ESPN broadcast zoomed in on Poles, this time inside a U.S. Bank Stadium suite after a first down running play to Roschon Johnson. Briefly, the GM shook his head and circled his right index finger in a bit of a “hustle up” gesture. Instantly, 137 more conclusions were drawn.

Clearly, Poles is unnerved with the play calling of offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, right? Perhaps he needs Fields and the offense to step up the tempo.

Or maybe this is the GM’s way of trying to get the rest of the regular season over to get on to more pressing matters?

Later, inside a jubilant Bears locker room moments after the late-game rally, Poles found Fields and gave him such a forceful bear hug that he lifted the 227-pound quarterback 8 inches off the ground. The team videographer captured that celebratory fun and well …

Seriously, does this look like a GM unhappy with his quarterback? Didn’t that feel like the energized embrace of a duo wanting to stay together for a long, long time?

Professional lip readers and body language experts stand by. Your services will remain in high demand. Heck, maybe soon we should request a scan of Poles’ brain and link up the requisite AI technology to truly learn what he’s thinking. Can’t hurt to try, right?

A world of possibility

Here we are, Chicago. With a little more than a month left in the season, Poles remains an incredibly compelling character in this Bears saga, a decision maker who is about to become one of the most influential figures within a 2024 NFL offseason that will be both pivotal and historic at Halas Hall.

December is just Poles’ slow roll toward the hectic intersection that will offer the team a dozen possible roads to head down.

Because of the ongoing tumult in Carolina and the pileup of Panthers losses — 10 and counting — the Bears seem destined to land the No. 1 pick in the draft for the second consecutive year. That would open a world of possibility for Poles, offering a license and the organization to imagine anything and everything with their planning for the future.

USC star Caleb Williams? A Chicago Bear? For real? North Carolina’s Drake Maye even?

Or what about again trading the No. 1 pick for another gift basket of talent and potential, working to stockpile the roster in that way and backing Fields for at least a little longer?

At the quarterback position alone, the organization has several intriguing options.

By extension, though, the Bears — presumably under Poles’ direction — also will have to consider every possibility of how they want their team led going forward. And that decision with the coaching staff might be needed first.

Keep everything intact? Stick with Matt Eberflus but seek significant changes within his staff? Start anew with a new coach who will implement a new vision?

It’s easy to understand why Poles’ brain must be spinning like a carnival Gravitron these days. He has options. He has freedom. He shoulders the weight of a series of momentous no-turning-back choices in the coming weeks and months.

Those decisions might feel both empowering and daunting. To the football world, the decisions the Bears make and the explanations they provide will prove fascinating.

What’s next?

The first thing Poles will have to announce, likely on Jan. 8, 9 or 10, is what he plans to do with Eberflus, the man he hired less than two years ago to help the Bears “take the North and never get it back.” Under Eberflus’ guidance, though, the Bears have lost three times more often than they have won. A big handful of those defeats have been downright painful. Or embarrassing. Or both.

Eberflus has never won consecutive games and has only one division victory in two seasons.

Without question, the talent deficits of the 2022 Bears must be considered in the comprehensive evaluation of Eberflus. The recent resurgence of the defense is a plus for the coach as well. Maybe, as Poles stated during another period of turbulence last month, Eberflus really is a picture of stability, a productive leader who is molding a team with a “never quit” spirit and has this team revving up for a convincing finish.

Or maybe, for these final five games, Eberflus merely will be a placeholder until a new leader is selected and a new era arrives at Halas Hall.

The chatter within leagues circles is that it will be far more difficult for Poles to justify keeping Eberflus next month than it will be to dismiss him. And the popular sentiment is that the timing couldn’t be more optimal for the team to justify a coaching change on circumstances alone.

The chance to control the draft with the No. 1 pick and another selection in the top 10 or even the top five is exciting. Plus the opportunity to link a new coach with a highly regarded rookie quarterback isn’t something most GMs ever have the luxury of doing.

“Let’s be real,” one league source said. “Given the Bears’ history, in my mind it’s highly important that they start 2024 with somebody who can successfully develop a quarterback. Anybody. … And if you’re the GM there, how could you turn down the rare opportunity to go do both at once? You choose the best quarterback in the draft class and link him up with one of the best offensive head coaching prospects of the moment.”

Timing, sometimes, offers the most important and convincing direction.

The chance to reset

Poles, though, also has to reach important conclusions soon about his preferred direction at quarterback: about Fields in particular; about the current QB1′s production through three seasons; about his potential for the next five; about whether the Bears want to stick behind him; and, if so, what level of investment they’re willing to attach to that commitment.

And if not, are the Bears ready, both with the state of their roster and their internal setup, to reboot smoothly at the most important position in the sport with a young prospect whose NFL readiness would be assessed with a fairly significant leap of faith.

To many inside the league, Poles’ two biggest upcoming decisions — what to do at coach and quarterback — are inevitably intertwined, even with as much as an NFL GM might want to keep those evaluations independent of one another.

Could the Bears really push Fields into a make-or-break fourth season — his third in the “This is the year we find out” category — with a third coach and third play caller?

And wouldn’t the list of dynamic, offensive-minded coaching candidates dwindle if the Bears were firmly staying the course with Fields?

The sentiment inside the league is that the Bears job — which, by the way, could be one of as many as 10 coaching vacancies in the league by wild-card weekend — would be far more attractive if it came with a clean slate at quarterback. Prospective candidates likely would feel far more eager to marry with a rookie than take on a time-sensitive developmental challenge with Fields, especially with no promise that a potential reset would provide anywhere near the same choices for the team that this draft cycle will.

Plus the Bears wouldn’t just be drafting any rookie quarterback this spring. It would be the rookie, the one the front office and coaching staff ultimately tab as the top player in the draft class.

“I’m not saying Fields is a bad quarterback,” the league source said. “But I think there’s enough evidence in now that he’s not ‘The guy.’ And if you now have your chance to go grab a prospect who’s been deemed ‘The guy’ for two years and you decide not to go get him, you have to ask yourself serious questions about your direction.”

Is Fields irreplaceable?

You can see where this gets exhilarating and sticky, where the “Choose Your Own Adventure” Poles is about to embark on will be exciting and vexing.

Stick with Fields? Certainly the Bears quarterback has shown growth and still offers signs of next-level potential. But whereas Poles spent 2022 looking for flashes from Fields, 2023 was set up to be a test of consistency and durability. And to this point, Fields hasn’t played anywhere close to a level that would convince the team without any hesitation to start hammering out his second contract.

So should Poles then draft Williams or Maye? Roll the dice on Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy or LSU’s Jayden Daniels? The pull of the draft is always strong. And for so many reasons, it will be even more powerful this year.

Wouldn’t it be soul crushing, though, if the Bears chose to go in a new direction and Fields then became a standout with a new team? Perhaps.

On the flip side, though, isn’t there incredible risk with sticking behind a quarterback who has had three seasons to show who he is and who he can be while passing on a prospect such as Williams, who has been propped up by many evaluators as a future star with elite arm talent and generational playmaking artistry?

Put another way, with the probable privilege of choosing No. 1, the potential for regret seems much larger for the Bears in seeing Williams become a Super Bowl-winning leader with another franchise than it is rolling the dice on his potential and seeing how far his ability can lead them.

These are the kinds of dilemmas Poles must sort through daily while retaining a grounded and unemotional evaluation of Fields.

As one source suggested, the verdict on Fields might become clearer by posing one critical question: What has he shown to date that makes him irreplaceable?

“If it takes you longer than 45 seconds to come up with your answer, then you have your answer,” the source said. “And while that can be difficult to conclude sometimes, you’re walking into a year where Williams and Maye are being regarded as the two of the best quarterback prospects people have seen in a long, long time. I think you have to use that top pick accordingly. You have to.”

With the comfort of distance from the Bears situation, the source made his recommendation for Poles’ action plan: Trade Fields, draft a quarterback, buy more time. But that is merely one suggestion from one detached observer and will prompt understandable pushback from those who believe Fields’ biggest developmental breakthroughs are close and can be realized if he is given better support.

Learning from the past

On the plus side, Poles should know what a transcendent quarterback looks like. He was the Kansas City Chiefs director of college scouting in 2017 when the front office and coaching staff became enamored with Patrick Mahomes and made him their “must have” QB. They then paired Mahomes with offensive guru Andy Reid and … voilà! Worked out pretty well, right?

That’s an important note too — the Reid influence on Mahomes. The Bears’ choice at quarterback this offseason will mean far less if they don’t identify their ideal offensive visionary, either as coach or coordinator, to design and activate a developmental launching pad.

So what are the Bears’ best options if they target an offensive-minded coach with quarterback expertise? Lure Jim Harbaugh from Michigan? Court Lions coordinator Ben Johnson or the Texans’ Bobby Slowik?

Eric Bieniemy, Press Taylor or Kellen Moore?

When the season ends, the Bears will have to declare their plans with the coaching position before they show their hand at quarterback. But privately at Halas Hall they could choose to make those decisions in reverse order to get comfortably aligned.

Poles of course will have guidance and direction from his boss, Kevin Warren, the team president who joined the Bears in January with an unmistakable “think big and swing hard” approach. With Warren setting the tone, many around the league sense that this feels like the time for the organization to be calculated but bold, thorough but aggressive, to see their predicament as an invigorating opportunity and not a pressure-packed plight.

The Bears will return from their bye week Monday and jump back into game action Dec. 10 against the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field. Poles, per usual, will do that pregame speed walk around the field. As always, he will find his way up to his box to watch the game. And win or lose, he’ll head to the locker room to wrap up the afternoon.

The cameras will be everywhere, of course. The scrutiny on Poles’ every gesture will continue to intensify, and the speculation that prompts only figures to spread.

A truly landmark period in Bears history has arrived, and keeping track of the man in charge remains paramount.

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