Southern Miss football game-by-game predictions: Seven wins for sure in 2023
You won't find many more difficult nonconference schedules than what Southern Miss football has put together for its third season under Will Hall.
The Golden Eagles will play two road games against Power Five programs, with a visit from Tulane – the preseason favorite to win the American Athletic Conference – mixed in for good measure.
Those challenges mean that, if USM improves on its win total of seven from last season, it will have made considerable strides forward as a program. The bookmakers have set the Golden Eagles' preseason win total at 5.5.
Will Southern Miss beat that mark and go a bowl game for the second year in a row?
Here are our picks, game-by-game.
Alcorn State, Sept. 2
It has been 36 years since Southern Miss last lost to a non-FBS program. Louisiana-Monroe, which now shares the Sun Belt Conference with the Golden Eagles, was the last to pull it off. Don't count on Alcorn State – which went 5-6 in 2022 and lost 52-0 to a Tulane team USM beat – snapping that streak.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 45, Alcorn State 3
At Florida State, Sept. 9
Similarly, it's probably a bit too early in Hall's reconstruction of Southern Miss' program to expect the Golden Eagles to go on the road against a top-10 team and win. USM's last victory over a ranked team came at Houston in the Conference-USA title game in 2011. If the quarterback situation is indeed sorted out, maybe USM can be a threat in Tallahassee. But even then, just about everything is going to have to break the Golden Eagles' way.
Score prediction: Florida State 41, Southern Miss 17
Tulane, Sept. 16
Hall earned his first signature win when Southern Miss upset Tulane on the road last season in the Battle for the Bell. That was one of only two losses on the year for the Green Wave, which went on to win 12 games and top USC in the Cotton Bowl. Quarterback Michael Pratt returns to lead the Green Wave which has holes to fill elsewhere. Look for him to be the difference in a tight one.
Score prediction: Tulane 28, Southern Miss 24
At Arkansas State, Sept. 23
On offense, the Red Wolves offer a similar feel to what the Golden Eagles have going into the season, hoping for improved quarterback play from Colorado transfer JT Shrout. Defensively, though, the Golden Eagles should be much better. It won't be easy, but a win to open up the Sun Belt slate is on the cards here.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 24, Arkansas State 21
Texas State, Sept. 30
The Bobcats are starting over, dipping into the FCS ranks to snag GJ Kinne to be their next coach. They're going to have some talent, bringing in more than 50 newcomers as they look to reload on the fly. Still, this is the type of program that Southern Miss has to beat in Hall's third season.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 31, Texas State 20
Old Dominion, Oct. 7
Southern Miss did not fare well against the SBC East last season, taking a home drubbing from Georgia State and falling on the road to a Grayson McCall-less Coastal Carolina. Old Dominion looked out of place in that division last season, though, finishing with just three wins. The Monarchs have serious quarterback uncertainty coming into this season, too. This is a game that Southern Miss should win.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 28, Old Dominion 14
At South Alabama, Oct. 17
Southern Miss' SBC slate starts getting spooky on a Tuesday night in Mobile. The Jaguars are the second-favorites among the sportsbooks to win the SBC, coming in just narrowly behind Troy. Even if the Golden Eagles get the kind of program-wide progression they're hoping for in 2023, this one might be beyond their reach.
Score prediction: South Alabama 30, Southern Miss 17
At Appalachian State, Oct. 28
Appalachian State is going to be relying on a first-year starter at quarterback, whether that be Ryan Burger or Joey Aguilar. The Golden Eagles are probably the better team on the defensive side of the ball, so this game might be more winnable for USM than it looks at first glance. But Boone is not an easy place to win. Every team that has beaten App State at home since 2020 has claimed at least a share of its division title.
Score prediction: App State 35, Southern Miss 31
Louisiana-Monroe, Nov. 4
The Warhawks have shown themselves to be capable of competing with their SBC peers under Terry Bowden, but winning on the road is a major issue. ULM has had one road win since 2020, and two road wins since it was last bowl eligible in 2018. This should be a comfortable win for Southern Miss.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 35, ULM 17
Louisiana, Nov. 9
You couldn't dream of going into Lafayette and getting a win two or three years ago, but that feels very possible for Southern Miss here. The Ragin' Cajuns were a disappointment last season under new coach Michael Desormeaux, and their transfer portal dealings this offseason weren't substantial. Look for the Golden Eagles to secure bowl eligibility here.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 21, Louisiana 17
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At Mississippi State, Nov. 18
Dismiss the Golden Eagles' chances in this game at your own risk. It is scheduled between a trip to Texas A&M and the Egg Bowl for the Bulldogs. And there's very little Southern Miss would like more than to get one over on one of the state's SEC schools. Depending on how the Bulldogs' offensive transition goes with Zach Arnett moving away from the Air Raid, they could be vulnerable. Ultimately, this game being on the road is what keeps us from picking USM, but it would be a surprise if this game didn't end up close.
Score prediction: Mississippi State 24, Southern Miss 20
Troy, Nov. 25
The Golden Eagles conclude their season against the SBC favorite. The Trojans won 12 games and finished 19th in the AP Poll in Jon Sumrall's first year in charge. That success was built on the strength of the SBC West's best defense. That unit should be very good once again, but don't discount the impact of some very key departures there. Southern Miss will have to wait, but it will get its signature home win.
Score prediction: Southern Miss 20, Troy 14
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Here are our Southern Miss football game-by-game predictions for 2023
