Simulated World Series: Astros' Jose Altuve hits walk-off homer in Game 1 vs. Phillies

How will this year's World Series play out? Using the Dynasty League Baseball online simulation, USA TODAY Sports' Steve Gardner and DLB designer Mike Cieslinski will pre-play each game to provide some insight into the key matchups and strategy fans can expect to see in the Fall Classic.

Sim Series Game 1: Altuve comes up big with walk-off homer

Jose Altuve's leadoff home run in the bottom of the ninth inning gave the Houston Astros a thrilling 4-3 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of USA TODAY Sports' annual Simulated World Series.

Altuve's 395-foot blast into the left field Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park capped a furious comeback against the Phillies bullpen as the Astros plated the tying run in the bottom of the eighth and then won it in dramatic fashion.

BOX SCORE:  Astros 4, Phillies 3

FULL PLAY-BY-PLAY:  Altuve caps Astros' late-inning comeback

How it happened

The Phillies grabbed an early lead against Astros ace Justin Verlander when Kyle Schwarber drew a one-out walk in the top of the third inning and Rhys Hoskins followed with a two-run home run to right center.

But that wasn't all, Bryce Harper doubled with two outs and Nick Castellanos singled him in to give Philadelphia a three-run cushion.

Houston came right back in the bottom of the third, loading the bases against Phillies starter Aaron Nola on a single and two walks. Nola then hit Alex Bregman with the bases loaded to force in a run, and Kyle Tucker followed with a sacrifice fly to cut the deficit to 3-2.

Both teams squandered some good scoring chances -- Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez threw out the Phillies' Alec Bohm at the plate in the top of the seventh -- but Houston finally broke through in the eighth against left-hander Jose Alvarado.

Kyle Tucker singled with two outs, moved to second on a walk and came home to tie the game on pinch-hitter Aledmys Diaz's RBI single.

And after Houston reliever Bryan Abreu (1-0) held the Phillies scoreless in the top of the ninth, Altuve hit the first pitch from David Robertson (0-1) into the Crawford Boxes for the walk-off win.

What to watch in (the actual) Game 1

Verlander's rust: Despite his many career accolades and 2017 World Series ring, Justin Verlander doesn't have a stellar track record in the Fall Classic. Pitching for the first time since the ALCS opener nine days earlier, Verlander wasn't sharp in Sim Series Game 1. The home run by Hoskins was one of nine hits the Astros ace allowed in 5 2/3 innings. He also walked two, hit a batter and had another reach base on an error. However, Philadelphia couldn't deliver the knockout blow, stranding 10 runners on base over the first six innings.

Bullpen brilliance: Perhaps the greatest advantage the Astros have in the series is their deep pool of relievers. Anyone in the bullpen is capable of coming into the game in a tough spot and putting up zeroes. In Sim Series Game 1, rookie Hunter Brown took over for Verlander with two outs in the sixth, two runners on base and Bryce Harper at the plate.

Brown got the big strikeout to preserve the one-run deficit. And the Houston bullpen didn't allow a run over the final 3 1/3 innings of the game.

Lack of lefties: Speaking of the Astros bullpen, they don't have any left-handed relievers other than Will Smith to match up against the Phillies' big left-handed bats: Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Sure enough, Harper had three hits, including a double, in five at-bats in Game 1. (Note: Smith was added to the Astros roster after we began our Sim Series.)

Fortunately, Brown (.136), Bryan Abreu (.189), Rafael Montero (.157), Ryne Stanek (.175) and Ryan Pressly (.178) all held lefty hitters to sub-.200 batting averages this season.

Clutch hitting gene: Altuve has come through in the playoff spotlight many times before -- after all, he's played 86 postseason games in his career entering this World Series and he was the 2019 ALCS MVP. So it shouldn't have come as a surprise when he delivered the game-winning hit.

However, the key to Houston's win in Sim Series Game 1 was Diaz's two-out pinch-hit RBI single that tied the game at 3 in the eighth. Diaz was a bit better hitter against left-handed pitchers (.766 OPS) than starting DH Trey Mancini (.650) during the regular season. Bringing him in to face Alvarado turned out to be the right move.

Adventures in the outfield: This series has the potential for some unexpected excitement on balls hit in the air. The Astros' Alvarez misjudged a ball in Sim Series Game 1 that allowed Bohm to take an extra base in the seventh. However, Alvarez does have a strong throwing arm and he made Bohm pay for trying to score on Jean Segura's two-out single.

The Phillies, meanwhile, have below-average defenders in the outfield corners in Schwarber and Castellanos. Dynasty League Baseball gives both players range ratings of "D" in the outfield (on an A-F scale), which means they may not get to balls an average outfielder would. Nola's ability to keep the ball on the ground kept their range from being a factor in Game 1.

Simulate your own World Series. Get a FREE one-month subscription to Dynasty League Baseball online by going to DynastyLeagueBaseball.com, selecting the monthly option and entering code USA2 at checkout.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: World Series Game 1 simulation: Astros walk off Phillies on Altuve HR