How seller's market this winter might impact Cincinnati Reds' free agent pitching plans

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As the Cincinnati Reds drive into the teeth of a ferocious seller’s market for starting pitching this winter, upgrades to one of the most injury-wracked and worst-performing starting rotations in the majors might be challenging at best for the playoff-minded Reds.

And that’s despite the fact team president Nick Krall said over the weekend he expects to have more ability to spend this winter than last winter — the flexibility enhanced with Joey Votto’s $25 million 2023 salary off the books for the 2024 budget (minus the $7 million buyout on his contract option).

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With as many 29 teams seeking an avenue to contend in 2024 — the first time in at least two decades so many teams seem to have reasonable expectations of winning — there are perhaps 15 to 20 teams seeking starting pitching additions this winter.

Competition for pitching will be fierce

That includes the no-doubt-about it, all-in, big-money Chicago Cubs, who made the splash of the early offseason Monday by signing free agent manager Craig Counsell to a record five-year, $40 million deal.

It also includes the deep-pockets St. Louis Cardinals, who have publicly vowed to add three starting pitchers after their last-place flop in 2023.

And the Reds.

“I’ve talked to a couple of clubs, and it’s kind of like a running joke,” Krall said. “You talk to every club and they’re looking for starting pitching depth — like everyone.”

That’s nothing new, he said.

But whether it proves to be a market with high enough demand this time around to create scarcity and higher prices, Krall and his staff are about to find out as he pursues one of the team’s offseason priorities.

“Everybody’s looking to improve their starting pitching, whether it’s at the top of the rotation or just adding depth, and we’re no different,” said Krall, whose surprising 82-win team finished two wins short of making the playoffs despite a 5.43 rotation ERA that ranked third from the bottom in the majors.

Young rotation is in need of help

Krall identifies eight in-house pitchers who made big-league starts in 2023 who could compete for spots in the spring, including what appears to be a clear top five assuming good health: Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson.

The flip side of that apparent in-house depth and talent is that the average number of pitchers teams used in their rotations this year was about double that, Krall pointed out.

And this: The Reds don’t have a pitcher on their roster who has made 30 starts in a season. They have only one who has even made 25: Ashcraft, the second-year right-hander who made 26 this year before a broken toe put him on the injured list for the second time and ended his season.

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Williamson, who debuted in mid-May out of extreme need, wound up with more starts than Opening Day starter Hunter Greene, who was on the IL twice. Lodolo, the third of the big second-year guys in 2023, was done after seven starts because of a leg injury.

All of those big three are expected to be ready for normal, full workloads by spring training.

“I would like to be able to add some quality innings to this team, yes,” Krall said.

Ideally, that would be in the form of at least one veteran starter over the alternative of a reliever combination (with bullpen depth also on the wish list regardless).

Some familiar names on the market

To that end, a potentially fraught free agent market looks roughly like this:

• At least five starting pitchers could be looking at nine-figure deals of at least five years, including Cy Young finalist Blake Snell of the San Diego Padres, Japanese superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Philadelphia Phillies ace Aaron Nola.

• Newly minted World Series champion Jordan Montgomery, who raised his value after a deadline trade from the Cardinals to Rangers, and former Reds starter Sonny Gray of the Twins also are in that top tier, along with Detroit ace Eduardo Rodriguez and maybe Shota Imanaga, another highly regarded Japanese free agent.

• Pitchers such as Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty are in the next tier, with Wacha — a ground-ball pitcher who declined his side of a mutual option with the Padres — somewhere in that mix.

• Wacha, an often undervalued right-hander who has been with four teams in four seasons, has a 3.27 ERA in 47 starts over the past two years, with the bidding expected to start somewhere north of the $18.5 million he left on the table in San Diego by opting out of what could have been three more seasons there.

• And then there’s a group that includes Miley, the respected 36-year-old lefty who, when healthy, has been as effective as most in the league. He had a 3.14 ERA for the Brewers (9-4 record) in 23 starts.

“Wade’s a great guy,” said Krall, who had Miley through the 2020 pandemic-shortened season and a 28-start 2021 season in which Miley produced a 3.37 ERA and 12 wins for a team that was in the playoff hunt into September.

“We’re kind of canvassing the landscape right now of the entire starting pitching market,” he said, “whether it’s trade or free agent, and figuring out what makes sense to be able to go down the road.”

And if 29 teams actually are trying to win in 2024? How many trade fits does that leave?

“I really don’t know the answer to that question,” said Krall, who figures to begin to get a better view of the landscape over the next few days.

“We just have to continue to have those conversations,” he said. “And it might be that we only work in the free agent market, and it might be that we make a trade or two.”

And it might be a tougher hill to climb in that effort, either way, than it has been in years.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: How Cincinnati Reds might navigate crowded road toward more pitching