SEC Unfiltered writer predicts eight wins at best for Texas
It was a warm night in Tuscaloosa in mid-September. Fans of SEC programs across the country were eager to watch Nick Saban’s Alabama squad humble Texas and prove the Longhorns an inferior Big 12 squad.
One dose of humbling was prepared for the game that night, but it wasn’t for Texas. The Longhorns bullied the Tide running away with the game with a dominant 21-point fourth quarter.
We knew Texas would have its hands full in its new conference, but this game was a warning shot at what the SEC would be up against.
The win was so decisive Alabama head coach Nick Saban began reflecting on what a great program his team had built. It was the kind of postgame press conference that had us thinking Saban would retire. And then he did.
Fans of the SEC are still dealing with Texas’ convincing defeat of Alabama in their own way. Most comically, media members who cover the conference are predicting a significant fall off for the ‘Horns.
Predictions of drop off are rolling in despite Texas having the third easiest SEC schedule. The Longhorns do, however, face a Michigan team that replaces 16 starters including eight of its nine starting linemen departing across both lines of scrimmage.
SEC Unfiltered contributor Lucas Hill writes that Texas is in for a “rude awakening.” Let’s break down a few of his claims.
“Texas is back folks!”
Hill argues that Texas thinks it’s back before proceeding to tell us why it is not back. Tim Brando did that before the season mockingly joking, “Texas is back? Really?” Brando argued that the team could be comparable to the 2022 Texas A&M team that went 5-7.
The Longhorns would, of course, go on to win 12 games and defeat Alabama in Tuscaloosa by more points than any other team had done at Bryant-Denny Stadium in the Saban era. Texas isn’t worried about being back. They’re worried about getting back to the playoff.
“Where’s your star tight end to replace Ja’Tavion Sanders?”
That’s a pretty easy one to answer. Alabama transfer Amari Niblack is Texas’ next star tight end. Niblack is one of four starter quality receivers the Longhorns added in the transfer portal.
“Is CJ Baxter really the guy?”
Critics asked who would replace Bijan Robinson at running back and were certain there would be a steep production drop off. Jonathan Brooks then ran for over 1,100 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6.1 yards per carry in 10 games. Baxter and Jaydon Blue combined for 1,057 yards and eight touchdowns after replacing Brooks post-injury. It doesn’t really matter who’s the guy. All that matters is, Texas will be strong at running back.
“How are you going to improve your secondary?”
Experience is usually a strong indicator of future success for a secondary. Returning nickel corner Jahdae Barron, safeties Derek Williams Jr. and Michael Taaffe, top cornerback Terrance Brooks and late season starter Malik Muhammad should help. Adding three year Clemson starter Andrew Mukuba is a significant get for the team.
“How will Simmons perform with no Bo Davis?”
Several other multi-sack players like Trey Moore, Ethan Burke and Barryn Sorrell will probably start for Texas before Simmons. Simmons could still make a strong impact in 2024.
“Eight (wins) at best.”
Hill claims that the Longhorns face one of the easiest schedules in the SEC yet still won’t win more than eight games. It’s a bold prediction after Texas shellacked the SEC champion Alabama in its own building last season. It’s worth recalling that Texas sacked Alabama five times to the Tide’s zero sacks on Texas. It’s worth questioning whether or not SEC fronts can handle the Longhorns and not the other way around.
“The last two games are going to determine whether or not I’m right or wrong.”
Hill’s earnest hope that Texas will reach its SEC floor at 4-4 or 5-3 in conference with no impressive wins hinges on Texas losses in Austin to Kentucky and on the road against Texas A&M. The matchup against the Aggies is a potential loss, and Kentucky will be a tough battle. But assuming that a brand new coach in College Station is a lock to defeat a 2023 playoff team in Year 1 is certainly bold. Texas also plays at Vanderbilt (2-10), at Arkansas (4-8), Mississippi State (5-7) and Florida (5-7).
