Russ to Pittsburgh: A good fit in every way
Those of us who doubted the wisdom of Pete Carroll’s decision to limit Russell Wilson have long since made our tearful apologies and realized the error of our fantasy-inclined ways.
Forgive us, Mr. Carroll. We knew not what we asked.
Carroll was right about Wilson. He is not — as we saw so painfully in Denver — the kind of quarterback who can single handedly carry an offense. And whatever his strengths, Russ should under no circumstances be at the head of a pass-first offense. Every time teams have experimented with letting Russ cook, the kitchen has burned down.
It’s why Wilson signing with the Steelers makes sense. He fits in every way: Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith can (and will) run an offense that emphasizes the run and efficient passing. It’s a formula, however fraught and old fashioned, that once worked beautifully with Ryan Tannehill in Smith’s Titans offense, and it’s the formula that made the Seahawks perennial Super Bowl contenders with Wilson under center.
This signing represents a potential return to Russ’s highly efficient game manager roots. The best part for the Steelers: Wilson will play for the bare-bones league minimum in 2024. It’s an ideal fit for all parties.
Russ Wasn’t All Bad in 2023
Don’t tell Sean Payton, but Wilson wasn’t exactly disastrous in his second and final season with the Broncos. Even with Payton badgering Wilson about his decidedly team-unfriendly contract, Russ was fine as a passer in 2023. He finished the season third in completion rate over expected and 18th in adjusted drop back EPA, right around Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow. Wilson’s drop back success rate was in line with Justin Herbert and Baker Mayfield.
Russ, importantly, remains a pretty good deep ball thrower. While he’s not at the peak of his moon-ball powers, Wilson in 2023 was top-ten in adjusted yards per attempt and completion percentage over expected (CPOE) on pass attempts of 20-plus yards. He’s still very much willing to let it fly in the Age of the Checkdown, as only six QBs had higher downfield passing rates than Wilson (13.4 percent). That Wilson’s average depth of target (aDOT) dropped to a career-low 7.8 in 2023 was probably a function of the vanilla offense Payton ran as an apparent protest against his franchise quarterback.
Out-of-pocket throws was an area in which Wilson struggled mightily in his second year in Denver. What was once a strength — recall Wilson making something out of nothing with wild scrambling throws during his Seattle heyday — looked to be a weakness in 2023. He was 18th out of 25 qualifying quarterbacks on CPOE on pass attempts outside the pocket, and his yards per attempt on those throws ranked 22nd out of 25 quarterbacks, according to Fantasy Points Data.
Ryan Tannehill Redux
Under Arthur Smith’s run-heavy ways, Ryan Tannehill in 2019 led all quarterbacks in CPOE and drop back success rate. Tanny trailed only Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in drop back EPA in what was an absurdly efficient season.
Tannehill was top-ten in yards per attempt on downfield attempts and shredded defenses on attempts of between 10 and 19 yards with a 72 percent completion rate, far beyond his career rate on such attempts. Tannehill posted a career-low rate of turnover worthy plays, per PFF, and had a career-high aDOT. He outpaced his career marks in every way under Smith.
Just a year prior, Tannehill ranked 31st out of 32 qualifying QBs in drop back EPA; only Josh Rosen had a lower drop back success rate that year. Tannehill was miserable in every regard. Smith turned him into the league’s most brutally efficient passer the following season. The 2019 Titans finished sixth in EPA per play. During Tannehill’s 11-game run as starter, only the Ravens had a higher EPA and no one had a higher offensive success rate. It really was a remarkable season without the aid of a top-end signal caller.
This all happened in an unapologetically run-first scheme: Tennessee had the sixth lowest neutral pass rate and were under their expected pass rate in (almost) every situation.
I don’t expect Wilson to re-enter the NFL’s elite quarterback conversation in Pittsburgh, but he showed more than enough in 2023 to suggest Smith can work with Russ as a carefully-deployed game manager who remains a good downfield passer. That deep ball acumen should be a major boon for contested-catch maven George Pickens. Russ, with Smith’s experience managing viable quarterbacks (which he did not have in Atlanta), should keep defenses honest enough for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to see reasonably favorable defensive fronts.
Probably the Steelers signing Russ is a better real football move than it will be for fantasy, though I think — if Arty Smith can recreate some of that Tannehill magic — Wilson could improve the prospects of every fantasy-relevant Steelers player.
