Runnin’ Utes turn focus to Pac-12 tourney while clinging to fading NCAA Tournament hopes

When Utah finished up nonconference play in late December, the Runnin’ Utes were viewed by many national prognosticators as an NCAA tournament team.

They had Quad 1 caliber wins at home over BYU, on the road at Saint Mary’s and at a neutral site over Wake Forest, boosting the Utes’ chances to break a seven-year tournament drought.

Things have changed over the last two and a half months, as Utah struggled to a 9-11 record in Pac-12 action.

As a result, the Utes head into the Pac-12 tournament this week (Wednesday through Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas) with their NCAA hopes hanging by a thread.

“We always look at it like there’s three seasons: you have nonconference play, conference play and now we go into postseason play. Like we said to our guys yesterday when we were watching film of Oregon State, they call it March Madness for a reason,” Utah coach Craig Smith said Saturday.

“You look around the country — I don’t remember what league it was, but on the first day in the quarterfinals of whatever league, I believe the No. 1 seed lost and the No. 3 seed lost in the quarters. So anything in March Madness can happen. That’s one of the things that’s so amazing about this sport, anything can happen.”

While blowout victories over Stanford and California in their final two home games of the regular season put Utah among the last four in the NCAA Tournament by many national projections, the Utes’ subsequent week — falling at last-place Oregon State on Thursday and at Oregon in a heartbreaker Saturday — has Utah (18-13) in a precarious position heading into the league tournament.

“Utah badly needs quality wins after an 0-2 road trip at season’s end dropped Craig Smith’s team to ‘next four out’ status (or possibly even one tier below that),” ESPN’s John Gasaway wrote about the Utes’ NCAA bubble outlook.

Utah, following those losses, will enter the Pac-12 tournament as the No. 6 seed and will play No. 11 seed Arizona State in the first round on Wednesday (9:30 p.m. MDT, Pac-12 Network).

Going into last week, the Utes had an opportunity for a top-four seed in the league tournament if they went 2-0. Now, Utah needs as many wins, and Quad 1 victories, as the Utes can earn themselves in Las Vegas, with Selection Sunday only a week away.

“If there’s any glimmer of hope it’s that, relatively speaking, the Utes caught something of a break with their draw in the Pac-12 bracket. No, Utah doesn’t get Arizona in the quarterfinal. Still, If the Utes can advance against Arizona State they will get Colorado in the quarters,” Gasaway wrote.

“Win there, and a game against Washington State could be next if the bracket holds form. The Buffaloes and the Cougars are both top-50 NET opponents, the only ones in the league not named Arizona.”

There’s another issue: the Utes may be without their team leader, fifth-year center Branden Carlson, as well. He left the loss to Oregon after getting tangled up with the Ducks’ N’Fale Danty early in the second half and had ice wrapped around his left elbow when he returned to the bench.

Smith didn’t have any update on Carlson’s status immediately after Saturday’s game, though his absence would be a major issue in Las Vegas.

Carlson leads the Utes in scoring (17.5 points per game), rebounding (6.9) and blocks (1.6). Moreover, his presence and experience are invaluable for a Utah program that’s struggled to make much postseason noise in recent years.

“We don’t know the status of Brandon. We just don’t, and so I didn’t even talk about that after the game,” Smith said about his message with the team following the loss.

If there’s something to build off of, it was Utah’s ability to show resilience at Oregon, even after falling behind 15-5 early, after Carlson left the game hurt and after the home team used a 10-0 second-half run to retake the lead.

Utah’s defense tightened up, the Utes overcame poor second-half shooting and still had a chance to beat the Ducks at Matthew Knight Arena, but Ben Carlson’s 3 from the corner at the final buzzer bounced off the back rim and out in a 66-65 loss.

“I’m really proud of how we competed tonight. We played with a great competitive spirit. We played with a will and tenacity and multiple efforts. That’s what this game is about,” Smith said.

“We played with great connectivity, our guys were really communicating on that floor tonight consistently, and it gave us a chance. In order to win big, you’ve got to be able to guard people.”

One of Utah’s biggest struggles this season has been consistency — that was evident last week, when the Utes looked lackadaisical in their seven-point loss at Oregon State, only to turn around and nearly beat Oregon in Eugene, which they only did once during their time in the Pac-12.

Now, the coach has the challenge of making his team believe that it can find success in Las Vegas, with or without Carlson.

“I truly believe for anything to happen, you have to believe it can happen. And you have to believe that you can go out there and do it. And you have to believe in your training. You have to believe in yourself. You have to believe in your teammates, and they should show a desire and that spirit to you,” Smith said.

Smith saw that belief in his team Saturday evening at Oregon, and it gives him something to cling to as they head to the Pac-12 tournament where, outside of Arizona and Washington State, most anyone is vulnerable.

“Quite frankly, we had that (belief) tonight — we obviously came on the short end, but we had that,” Smith said after losing to the Ducks.

“... Nothing surprising in this league. I think it’s a wide-open race and anything can happen and we’re gonna have a tough first-round draw.”