RSM Classic: In-depth preview with strokes gained data, key stats, betting plays, and more
After a week in Texas, the PGA Tour heads to the east coast for the RSM Classic. Robert Streb—yes, Robert Streb—returns as the defending champion after taking down Kevin Kisner in a playoff last season. Streb is in good form, recording a pair of top 10s in his last three starts.
Scottie Scheffler (+1200) enters the week as the betting favorite, and like Streb, is in fantastic form. After turning in a solo fourth in Mexico, the Texan was a red-hot Jason Kokrak away from capturing his first Tour win in Houston last week (Scheffler finished T-2).
Important news: Twilight 9, the podcast I started over a year ago, has officially joined Golfweek. Andy Nesbitt is coming on as a co-host, and this week’s episode is live now. Download the episode to hear our chat about Kokrak, Phil Mickelson on Monday Night Football, Brooks Koepka’s struggles and the RSM Classic.
Golf courses this week
Seaside course
Par 70
7,005 yards
Plantation course
Par 72
7,060 yards
Both courses will be used on Thursday and Friday, while weekend play will be exclusively on the Seaside course.
Weather
Day | Conditions | Chance of rain | Wind and direction |
Tuesday | Sunny | 1 percent | 7 MPH (SE) |
Wednesday | Mostly Sunny | 7 percent | 7 MPH (ENE) |
Thursday | Partly Cloudy | 19 percent | 6 PMH (SE) |
Friday | Partly Cloudy | 9 percent | 18 MPH (NNE) |
Saturday | Partly Cloudy | 17 percent | 17 MPH (NE) |
Sunday | Partly Cloudy | 14 percent | 13 MPH (NNE) |
Key stats
Driving accuracy: I said it a few weeks ago, but on short golf courses, it’s important to find the fairway. Data Golf agrees with me, as it lists driving accuracy as the most important stat for the week.
Putting (Bermuda): If you listen to Twilight 9, or if you read the in-depth previews every week, you know what’s coming next. Some guys hate Bermuda greens, some love them. Just look at Kisner’s record at this place — dude loves Bermuda more than anyone on Earth.
Data Golf Information
Course Fit (compares golf courses based on the degree to which different golfer attributes — such as driving distance — to predict who performs well at each course – DataGolf): 1. TPC Twin Cities, 2. The Concession Golf Club, 3. Detroit Golf Club
Trending (among the players in the field): 1. Cameron Smith (last three starts: T-14, T-9, T-15), 2. Talor Gooch (T-5, T-11, 60), 3. Scottie Scheffler (T-38, 4, T-2)
Percent chance to win (based on course history, fit, trending, etc.): 1. Scottie Scheffler (5 percent), 2. Louis Oosthuizen (4.4 percent), 3. Cameron Smith (4.3 percent)
Bettings odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds a full list.
Scottie Scheffler (+1200) | Webb Simpson (+1300) |
Cameron Smith (+1500) | Louis Oosthuizen (+2000) |
Russell Henley (+2000) | Corey Conners (+2000) |
Alex Noren (+3000) | Kevin Kisner (+3000) |
Harris English (+3000) | Joaquin Niemann (+3000) |
Betting card for the RSM Classic
We’re coming off two winning weeks in a row. Monster week in Mexico, up 4.3 units, and a very modest week in the Lone Star state, up .22 units (Aaron Wise missed the top 20 by a shot. That one hurts the soul).
Scottie Scheffler — Top 10 (+185)
Scottie Scheffler plays his shot from the 14th tee during the second round of the Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on November 12, 2021, in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
He’s going back on the card. He’s hot. I refuse to be off the Scheffler bandwagon when he finally gets it done. He led going into the final round in Mexico, but couldn’t overcome Kokrak, finishing T-2.
Scheffler has made just one start at the RSM Classic, but he cashed a T-5. A week before his runner-up in his home state, Scheffler finished solo 4th in Mexico.
Russell Henley — Top 20 (+150)
Russell Henley watches his tee shot on the sixteenth hole during the third round of the Wyndham Championship. Photo by Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
When he’s on a heater, you have to bet the heater. He played well in Houston and cashed a T-7. He finished T-30 at this event last season, but grabbed consecutive top 10s in 2016 and 2015. Not much else to say, let’s go, Henley.
Robert Streb — Top 20 (+320)
Robert Streb celebrates with the trophy after winning in a sudden-death playoff against Kevin Kisner during the final round of The RSM Classic at the Seaside Course at Sea Island Golf Club on November 22, 2020, in St Simons Island, Georgia. Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images
Value play! And what a value play it is. Streb is in great form with two top 10s in his last three starts. He’s won at this golf course twice, his only wins on Tour, including last season. Form + course history = top 20? I think so.
