The Regression Files: Week 14
Spotting guys who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance — because “luck” is so crass — can help us with waiver wire additions, start-sits, and sneaky DFS plays, if you’re into that sort of thing.
That’s my goal with the Regression Files: Pinpointing players seemingly due for regression to the mean, for better or worse.
We’ll start with players who have run cold of late, and who might be due for something of a bounce back in Week 14 and beyond.
Regression Candidates (The Good Kind)
Quarterback
Sam Howell (WAS)
I wouldn’t go so far as to call Howell a screaming regression candidate. But he’s definitely a mewling regression candidate.
Washington remains among the league’s pass heaviest offenses — 6 percent over their expected drop back rate and 2.6 percent higher in their red zone pass rate over expected — while Howell’s efficiency crashes. He’s converted a meager 40 percent of his air yards into actual yards over the past four games, down from a season-long rate of 50 percent. Over the season’s first six weeks, Howell turned 55 percent of his air yards into passing yards.
We know the Commanders are going to throw the ball until the cows come home, or whatever farm animals are near FedEx Field. If (or when) Howell’s air yards conversion rate normalizes, he should get back to solid passing production. The rushing production he had in Week 13 against Miami is the definition of variance — it cannot last.
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Running Back
Zack Moss (IND)
The Zack Moss Experience in Week 13 was a lot less fun than I remember it. Back when I was a kid (September), you woke up on Saturday and watched three straight hours of cartoons and you plugged Moss into your fantasy lineup and he gave you 20 fantasy points, no questions asked. I prefer those good old days.
The good news: Moss had 19 of 19 running back carries for the Colts last week against a tough Tennessee rush defense. He was wretched on those attempts, logging 2.7 yards per carry and forcing a single missed tackle. That 99 percent of his rushing yards came after contact probably means the Colts offensive line was overwhelmed by the Titans. Moss finished Week 13 with the second most expected fantasy points among running backs. Expected points won’t fill your belly though. I’ve tried. They’re like rice cakes.
Critically, Moss saw all of the team’s snaps inside the 20. The Colts on the season have the fifth lowest pass rate over expected in the red zone; almost no one establishes it like the horseshoes near the end zone. Moss, meanwhile, has had bad luck (variance, if you will) inside the ten, converting three of 19 rushes for touchdowns.
Moss’ locked-in RB1 workload and Indy’s red zone run heaviness should lead to better, more touchdown-filled days. Moss in Week 14 faces a Bengals defense giving up the league’s fifth highest rushing success rate and the third highest yards before contact per rush (for context, the Titans rank 26th). Things are about to soften up for Moss.
Wide Receiver
Elijah Moore (CLE)
The following is written under the assumption that slingin’ Joe Flacco will continue starting for the Browns after proving more than capable in Week 13 against the Rams.
Flacco, amazingly, led the NFL in passing air yards with 534. Jalen Hurts was second with just 347 air yards. It was quite the aerial display for Flacco, who probably would have made the Jets the No. 1 seed in the AFC if New York had signed him off the couch in October. Flacco against the Rams last Sunday attempted a truly remarkable 19 passes of more than ten air yards -- the most by any Cleveland quarterback since 2018.
Moore functioned as the recipient of many of those air (prayer) yards. He piled up a whopping 255 air yards — leading all NFL pass catchers — and converted that opportunity into a humble 86 scoreless yards. This is hardly the first time Moore has dominated the Browns’ air yards though. Since Week 9, he has seen 41 percent of the team’s air yards; only Mike Evans and CeeDee Lamb have out-air yarded Moore over the past month. Amari Cooper is second on the Browns with a 19 percent air yards share over that stretch. And Moore has been targeted on 23 percent of his pass routes over that span, an uptick over his early-season target earning rate.
With at least seven targets into four straight games, Moore should be treated like a low-end WR2 option in PPR formats, especially if Cooper misses time with a brain injury he sustained in Week 13. The Browns, by the bye, were 5 percent over their expected drop back rate last week against LA. If we can get that kind of commitment to the pass in the next few weeks, Moore — an afterthought for most of the season — could be one of the strangest fantasy football difference makers we’ve seen for quite some time. Moore’s luck could hardly be worse: He has seen the league’s second lowest rate of catchable passes this year.
In Week 14, Moore gets a crack at a Jaguars secondary allowing the ninth highest drop back success rate since Week 7. It could be fun if the prayer yards become usable receiving yards.
Tight End
Taysom Hill (NO)
How, you might ask, can Hill be a positive regression candidate after posting the sixth most tight end fantasy points since Week 8 (and the most tight end points in caveman standard scoring leagues). Denny must have placed Hill in the wrong regression category, you think.
Well, dear reader, you’re wrong. Hill belongs in this space because he’s run terribly cold with his high-value inside-the-ten touches over the past couple months. Hill’s 17 rushes in the green zone — the 15th most in the NFL, tied with Alvin Kamara — have netted the hybrid superstar a mere three touchdowns this season. Hill has managed three touchdowns on seven inside-the-five carries. Against the Lions in Week 13, he was stuffed twice at the goal line.
The Saints are force feeding touches to Hill that could (should) make him an elite weekly fantasy option (Hill missed an open Chris Olave in Week 13 for what would have been a 60-yard touchdown too). If his red zone usage continues — and there’s little reason to believe it won’t — Hill should eventually cash in more of these incredibly valuable green zone opportunities. That the Saints average the league’s second most offensive snaps per game and the seventh most red zone possessions per game doesn’t exactly hurt Hill’s cause.
A Week 14 date with a Panthers defense allowing the NFL’s highest rushing success rate could be a nice little invitation for the Regression Reaper to visit Taysom.
David Njoku (CLE)
Njoku could see a (good) visit from the Regression Reaper for the same reason Elijah Moore might: The Browns very well could become one of the NFL’s pass heaviest teams if they stick with Joe Flacco at quarterback.
Last week was bleak for folks who started Njoku with visions of three-yard Flacco dump offs dancing in their heads. Njoku ran a route on a solid 75 percent of Flacco’s drop backs but managed just two catches on six targets. That way the second most targets on the team in a decidedly spread-out target distribution.
Don’t freak out and bench Njoku in Week 14 against Jacksonville. Cleveland should continue being pass heavy against an exploitable Jaguars secondary. And I don’t believe Flacco is done with his old check down tendencies. Hopefully Harrison Bryant doesn’t steal Njoku’s thunder like he did against the Rams (five catches on five targets for 49 yards while being targeted on 28 percent of his routes).
Regression Candidates (The Bad Kind)
Quarterback
Jordan Love (GB)
I have been accused of “hating fun” and “raining on parades” since I was in third grade. These attacks have been unfair, as I only report facts. Maybe you don’t like facts. I can’t help that.
Today my fun hating starts and ends with Jordan Love’s astounding green zone (inside the ten) efficiency. Thirteen of Love’s 14 completions inside the ten yard line have gone for touchdowns this season. And yes, that has been fact checked by my interns, who also hate fun in any form.
Christian Watson’s absence won’t help matters. Watson has seen seven of the team’s 27 green zone targets this season and won’t be easily replaced.
Love’s progress is one of the NFL’s most intriguing and important storylines. As Rotoworld’s Patrick Daugherty wrote on Monday, Love is not the typical EPA-machine quarterback terrified to make mistakes. Love is letting it rip and it’s working beautifully. He’s all but secured his spot at the next potentially great Packers quarterback. But man, I can’t look at those green zone numbers and not see the Regression Reaper lurking in the background, scythe in hand, ready to deliver for the fun haters.
There is one factor that could stave off a reaper visit for Love: Green Bay is tenth in pass rate over expected inside the 20.
Running Back
Derrick Henry (TEN)
If Henry drafters are still hanging on by their fingernails to a fantasy football playoff spot, the past two weeks have been a soothing balm on an otherwise rough season. Henry has scored four touchdowns on the ground on 39 rushing attempts. That Henry has just 13 inside-the-ten rushes on the season -- the 22nd most among all players -- can be swept under the proverbial rug for now.
But Henry remains terribly game script dependent. The Titans, as usual, are riding Henry when they have game script on their side. He’s averaging 21.8 rushes per game in Tennessee wins this season and just 13.5 in losses. Henry is locked in for 20-plus touches when the Titans grab a lead because only four teams have a lower neutral early-down pass rate than Tennessee in 2023. They’re 7 percent under their expected drop back rate since Week 10.
The problem, naturally, is that Henry is phased out of the game plan when the Titans are forced to chase points, as they likely will in Week 14 against the Dolphins. Tyjae Spears this season has averaged 23.6 pass routes per game; Henry has averaged 14.5. In negative script against the Bucs in Week 10, Spears logged 19 routes and four targets while Henry had one target on nine routes.
Henry’s path to decent fantasy output is exceedingly narrow on a bad Titans team. Just know that going into Week 14, where the Titans are 13.5-point dogs.
Wide Receiver
DeVonta Smith (PHI)
A.J. Brown drafters have surely noticed the shift in Philadelphia’s pass-catching pecking order over the past month. DeVonta Smith, after functioning as a distant WR2 behind Brown throughout the season’s first two and a half months, has now seen 48 percent of the Eagles’ air yards over the team’s past three games. Brown has a 35 percent air yards share over that span — not hateful, but not the dominant share he had in September and October.
There’s no two ways about it: Smith is running red hot. Crazy hot. Stupid hot. He’s converted nearly 80 percent of his air yards into receiving yards since Week 8, the second highest mark among wideouts behind fellow regression candidate — mentioned in last week’s column — Brandin Cooks. It’s a flip of the script from the season’s first six weeks, when Smith converted a lowly 44 percent of his air yards into real-life yards. The regression, in other words, has hit, and hit hard.
We’ll likely see backsliding on Smith’s hyper-efficient ways over the next few weeks. It might not help that the Eagles offensive coordinator is calling for a renewed commitment to establishing the run no matter the game script.
