Red River Rivalry flip: Updated look at ESPN’s matchup predictor after Oklahoma’s win over SMU
Two weeks into the season and the Oklahoma Sooners sit 2-0 like everyone expected. They’ll take on Tulsa this week and should be able to come away with another big win before going on the road for the first time in week 4 when they face Cincinnati.
The ESPN Football Power Index is a big fan of the Oklahoma Sooners. After two wins, the Sooners sit at No. 8 in the nation. Even after the Longhorns win over Alabama, Texas is just two spots ahead of OU in the computer-based model.
So after the Sooners 28-11 win over SMU, what does the ESPN matchup predictor say about the remainder of the schedule? Let’s take a look.
Sept. 16: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Tulsa)
Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium (Tulsa)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 96.4% (Down from 96.5%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma 20-7-1
Projected running record: 3-0
Sept. 23: Cincinnati Bearcats (Cincinnati)
Nippert Stadium (Cincinnati)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 69.8% (Down from 78.2%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma 2-0
Projected running record: 4-0
Sept. 30: Iowa State Cyclones (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 90.3% (Up from 89.2%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma 79-7-2
Projected running record: 5-0
Oct. 7: Texas Longhorns (Dallas)
Cotton Bowl (Dallas)
Predicted Winner: Texas
Sooners Win Probability: 46.3% (Down from 58.9%)
All-Time Series: Texas leads 63-50-5
Projected running record: 5-1
Oct. 14: Bye Week
If the matchup predictor proves true, heading into the bye week with a loss to Texas will leave a sour taste in the mouths of the team. Texas’ win over Alabama is a big reason the probability flipped from a week ago. But given it’s close to 50-50 is still a strong indication that the computers love the Sooners.
Oct. 21: UCF Knights (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 81% (Down from 81.2%)
All-Time Series: First meeting between the two teams.
Projected running record: 6-1
Oct. 28: Kansas Jayhawks (Lawrence)
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium (Lawrence)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 86% (Down from 90.9%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 80-27-6
Projected running record: 7-1
Nov. 4: BEDLAM - Oklahoma State (Stillwater)
Boone Pickens Stadium (Stillwater)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 82.7% (Down from 86.9%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 91-19-7
Projected running record: 8-1
Nov. 11: West Virginia Mountaineers (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 93.3% (Down from 94.7%)
All-Time Series: 11-3
Projected running record: 9-1
Nov. 18: BYU Cougars (Provo)
LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 90.8% (Down from 91.3%)
All-Time Series: BYU leads 2-0
Projected running record: 10-1
Nov. 24: TCU Horned Frogs (Norman)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 86.2% (Down from 88.1%)
All-Time Series: 17-6
Projected running record: 11-1
Analysis
The Oklahoma Sooners lost win probability points in every game, except their week five matchup with Iowa State.
The ESPN Matchup Predictor believes the Sooners will still have a strong season but dropped the record projection from last week’s 12-0 to this week’s 11-1. The only game the Sooners aren’t favored in, according to the matchup predictor, is Texas. But the win probability makes that contest the coin flip game that the Red River Rivalry has become.
If Oklahoma goes 11-1, they’ll be playing in the Big 12 title game with a chance to enact revenge on the Longhorns.
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