Reassessing our preseason top 25 after the first month of the 2018 season
September’s over, so it’s a good time to take an early look at how good and bad our preseason top 25 looks so far. The 25 teams that made our beginning of the season poll are listed below with their current AP poll ranking and record along. Some, like Oregon and Oklahoma, have proved us right so far. Others, like Florida State and Wisconsin, have not. If you want to re-read any of our season previews, they’re at the links below.
No. 25 South Carolina, No. 24 Utah, No. 23 West Virginia, No. 22 Central Florida, No. 21 Texas, No. 20 USC, No. 19 Florida State, No. 18 Oregon, No. 17 Mississippi State, No. 16 TCU, No. 15 Michigan, No. 14 Boise State, No. 13 Notre Dame, No. 12 Auburn, No. 11 Michigan State, No. 10 Stanford, No. 9 Miami, No. 8 Penn State, No. 7 Oklahoma, No. 6 Wisconsin, No. 5 Georgia, No. 4 Washington, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 2 Clemson, No. 1 Alabama
Let’s see how we’ve done.
25. South Carolina
Current ranking: Unranked
Current record: 3-2 (1-2 SEC)
Expectation: That South Carolina was the team best-positioned to beat Georgia in the SEC East.
Reality: The Gamecocks could look like the fifth-best team in the division with a loss to Missouri on Saturday.
Outlook: The East is pretty much out of the question. Georgia needs to lose three times for South Carolina to have a chance thanks to the Bulldogs’ early-season win. And that’s not taking Florida or Kentucky into account. The Gamecocks’ offense hasn’t shown up in games against Georgia or the Wildcats, combining for 27 points in its two losses.
24. Utah
Current ranking: Unranked
Current record: 2-2 (0-2 Pac-12)
Expectation: We thought the Utes had the best chance of any team not-named USC in the Pac-12 South.
Reality: Utah still may be in that position. The Pac-12 South is that much of a mess right now. Arizona is a disaster and so is UCLA. Colorado and Arizona State are far better than we thought. The Utah offense is not as good as we thought.
Outlook: With games against USC, Colorado and Arizona State still on the schedule the Utes have a chance in the South. But a loss to Stanford on Saturday will be a third straight loss inside the conference and could put the Utes out of contention before they play a divisional opponent.
23. West Virginia
Current ranking: 9
Current record: 4-0 (1-0 Big 12)
Expectation: That West Virginia would jump out to a hot start based on a weak early season schedule and come back down to earth in November.
Reality: We got that one right, so far. We can’t be too disappointed with where WVU is now compared to where we had them at the beginning of the season given that expectation.
Outlook: Check back with us in November about the Mountaineers. QB Will Grier is a Heisman candidate right now and will solidify his candidacy with wins and great games over Texas, TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State later in the season.
22. Central Florida
Current ranking: 12
Current record: 4-0 (1-0 AAC)
Expectation: That UCF would be one of the two non-Power Five teams contending for the lone New Year’s Six bowl berth available to Group of Five teams.
Reality: The Knights have continued winning and boast a 17-game win streak. QB McKenzie Milton looks like a guy who will get some Heisman votes if UCF keeps on the path to a second straight NY6 bowl.
Outlook: UCF is in the driver’s seat for another big bowl game thanks to Boise State’s loss to Oklahoma State. The biggest question the Knights face is just how long the win streak will last. It could stretch into November. Or even longer.
21. Texas
Current ranking: 18
Current record: 4-1 (2-0 Big 12)
Expectation: That Texas would be back in some way, shape, or form in 2018.
Reality: After a weird loss to Maryland to open the season, the Longhorns have gotten wins over USC and TCU. Texas may not be winning in the prettiest of fashions but it’s winning. And that’s all that matters in Austin at the moment.
Outlook: Saturday’s game against No. 7 Oklahoma looms large. And could be the prequel to a rematch in the Big 12 title game. The winner will be in first in the conference.
20. USC
Current ranking: Unranked
Current record: 3-2 (2-1 Pac-12)
Expectation: That USC would recover from a potential early bump in the road or two and emerge as the best team in the Pac-12 South.
Reality: Pretty similar to the expectation here too. Though we would have pegged 4-1 for USC at this point and not 3-2. The losses to Stanford and Texas were a reality check for an offense that lost a lot of talent from 2016.
Outlook: The Trojans’ offense should keep improving throughout the season as freshman QB J.T. Daniels gets accustomed to playing college football. USC needs to take care of business against Colorado and Arizona State to win the division.
19. Florida State
Current ranking: Unranked
Current record: 3-2 (1-2 ACC)
Expectation: That Florida State would rebound from a disastrous 2017 and be one of the better teams in the ACC.
Reality: Oops. The Seminoles have been dominated by both Virginia Tech and Syracuse. FSU is 1-2 in the conference thanks only to a choke by Louisville in the final minutes on Saturday.
Outlook: There’s been both a lack of talent and discipline in Tallahassee this season. And it’s hard to see the season getting any better soon. Florida State plays Miami, Wake Forest, Clemson, NC State and Notre Dame over the next five weeks of the season before finishing with Boston College and Florida. Can you find three more wins there?
18. Oregon
Current ranking: 18
Current record: 4-1 (1-1 Pac-12)
Expectation: The Ducks would pose a serious challenge to Washington and Stanford in the Pac-12 North.
Reality: Hey, we got this one right. Let’s focus on it and not Florida State. Oregon is a string of plays from being 5-0. We won’t relive the second half of that Stanford game.
Outlook: Oregon still has a chance in the Pac-12 North if Washington beats Stanford and Oregon can beat Washington. That’s doable if the Ducks have learned from the mistakes made against the Cardinal. Justin Herbert could be the best quarterback in the Pac-12.
17. Mississippi State
Current ranking: Unranked
Current record: 3-2 (0-2 SEC)
Expectation: Mississippi State was the team best positioned to spoil the state of Alabama party in the SEC West.
Reality: Quarterback is starting to become a real issue for the Bulldogs. Nick Fitzgerald has struggled recently as Mississippi State has lost to both Kentucky and Florida. Thirteen points in two games against conference opponents isn’t going to cut it.
Outlook: With LSU now positioned inside the top five and the Bulldogs with two losses, MSU is playing the role of spoiler the rest of the season. The Bulldogs are talented enough to pull an upset somewhere the rest of the season. But that’s now the ceiling.
16. TCU
Current ranking: Unranked
Current record: 3-2 (1-1 Big 12)
Expectation: TCU was primed to play Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game for the second straight year.
Reality: A trip to the Big 12 championship game is still achievable, but TCU is going to need some help from Oklahoma and Texas. The Longhorns have the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of a Week 4 win over TCU.
Outlook: TCU hung with Ohio State in Week 3 and showed flashes of potential. Is that potential sustainable? Shawn Robinson is completing 63 percent of his passes but is averaging less than seven yards an attempt and has just seven touchdowns to six interceptions. Games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma over the next three weeks will tell us a lot.
15. Michigan
Current ranking: 15
Current record: 4-1 (2-0 Big Ten)
Expectation: Michigan had the talent to compete with the Big Ten’s best but also had a real chance at four losses.
Reality: Michigan struggled in Week 1 against Notre Dame but things got better over the next three weeks. The start of Saturday’s game against Northwestern game was awful but the 20-point comeback was a big statement for the Wolverines.
Outlook: Michigan and Penn State look like the top challengers to Ohio State in the Big Ten West. The Wolverines get both the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes at home and also have a Oct. 13 road game at No. 16 Wisconsin.
14. Boise State
Current ranking: Unranked
Current record: 3-1 (1-0 MWC)
Expectation: Boise State would seize the title of best Group of Five team from Central Florida thanks to a lot of talent returning on both sides of the ball.
Reality: The Broncos got outgunned on special teams and dominated up front by Oklahoma State. As long as UCF keeps winning, Boise State will keep playing second fiddle.
Outlook: Boise State looks to be the class of the Mountain West. Another conference title is nice, but a New Year’s Six bowl game is the real prize. Without Central Florida stumbling, that prize looks out of reach.
13. Notre Dame
Current ranking: 6
Current record: 5-0
Expectation: We were high on the Notre Dame defense and the potential for its running game to continue operating at a high level, despite losing Josh Adams, Mike McGlinchey and Quenton Nelson to the NFL. But we had questions about the passing game with Brandon Wimbush that made us skeptical about the Irish’s ceiling.
Reality: Apparently Brian Kelly had those same quarterback concerns. The Irish defense carried the load through three weeks and the offense has taken off with the switch to Ian Book at quarterback.
Outlook: The Irish, now 5-0, made it through Michigan and Stanford unscathed, but have a tough trip to No. 24 Virginia Tech on Saturday. Notre Dame is favored in that one, as it should be the rest of the season. A path to the College Football Playoff is clear.
12. Auburn
Current ranking: 8
Current record: 4-1 (1-1 SEC)
Expectation: We thought the Tigers would boast one of the nation’s best defenses while the offense, with another year of Jarrett Stidham, would take a step forward despite some question marks on the offensive line.
Reality: We had Auburn as the top challenger to Alabama in the SEC West, but that changed when LSU came into Jordan-Hare Stadium and pulled out a last-second win. While the defense has been as advertised, the offense has fans very concerned moving forward.
Outlook: Auburn doesn’t have much, if any, margin for error to play itself into the CFP picture, but when you have Georgia and Alabama on the schedule to close out the year, the Tigers can jump back into the frame provided there are no slip-ups to inferior opponents in October.
11. Michigan State
Current ranking: 20
Current record: 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten)
Expectation: When a team that won 10 games returns 19 starters, it was hard not to have high expectations. Michigan State was a team that had as good a chance as any to emerge from the loaded Big Ten East.
Reality: The word to describe MSU through one month is underwhelming. The Spartans barely squeaked by Utah State, lost to Arizona State and looked OK in wins over Indiana and Central Michigan. The run game has been especially concerning. MSU averages just 3.3 yards per rush.
Outlook: With games against Penn State and Michigan in the coming weeks, MSU has the chance to make a move up the rankings and become a factor in the Big Ten.
10. Stanford
Current ranking: 14
Current record: 4-1 (2-0 Pac-12)
Expectation: We had Stanford as the top contender in the Pac-12 North behind Washington. With Heisman runner-up Bryce Love returning, our eye was on the quarterback position with K.J. Costello inheriting the starting role full time. We were a bit skeptical Costello could get the job done considering the road schedule he was set to face.
Reality: The passing game has been a strength while the running game has been inconsistent. Costello and JJ Arcega-Whiteside (19.9 yards per catch, 8 TDs) have been a lethal big-play combination while Love is averaging 4.3 yards per carry — down from 8.1 in 2017 and 7.0 in 2016.
Outlook: A 38-17 loss to Notre Dame dropped the Cardinal from the ranks of the unbeaten, but the team’s conference title hopes are still ahead of it. That is especially true because of the dramatic comeback win over Oregon on Sept. 22.
9. Miami
Current ranking: 17
Current record: 4-1 (1-0 ACC)
Expectation: We had some concerns about the offense, namely QB Malik Rosier, but fully expected Miami to take advantage of what was perceived to be an easy early schedule before working its way into ACC play.
Reality: LSU — who we didn’t even have in our preseason rankings — beat Miami soundly in Week 1, quickly putting a halt to the Hurricanes hype. But the team has bounced back with four straight wins, including two straight with N’Kosi Perry getting the majority of the reps.
Outlook: The ACC Coastal is completely up for grabs and Miami’s schedule is not exactly a juggernaut. If UM keeps winning the games it is favored in, it could set up a rematch with Clemson in the ACC title game and maybe even open a door to the playoff.
8. Penn State
Current ranking: 11
Current record: 4-1 (1-1)
Expectation: With Trace McSorley at quarterback and an improved offensive line, confidence in the Penn State offense was high even with Saquon Barkley in the NFL and Joe Moorhead now at Mississippi State. The inexperience on defense, however, had us concerned if PSU could compete with Ohio State in the Big Ten East.
Reality: The defense was shaky in Week 1 as PSU barely edged Appalachian State at home. Things have gotten better since there, with the offense putting up big numbers. However, a massive chance to put itself in the pole position in the Big Ten slipped away in Saturday’s dramatic home loss to Ohio State.
Outlook: Penn State is still going to win a bunch of games, but Ohio State is going to have to drop a few games for the Nittany Lions to sneak into the Big Ten title game. Otherwise, it looks like a New Years Six bowl and a ranking barely outside the top four is PSU’s ceiling after Saturday’s loss.
7. Oklahoma
Current ranking: 7
Current record: 5-0 (2-0 Big 12)
Expectation: Oklahoma was our top-ranked Big 12 team entering the season despite potential offensive drop-off with Kyler Murray taking the reins from Baker Mayfield at quarterback. We had some concern about the youth on defense as well.
Reality: Murray has been an absolute stud so far with Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb establishing themselves as two of the better receivers in the conference. Murray’s ascendence is critical to OU’s national title hopes, especially with RB Rodney Anderson out for the season.
Outlook: The Sooners have been impressive, no doubt, but they have yet to face tough competition to this point in the season. That changes this week against No. 19 Texas. OU also has Oklahoma State and West Virginia (in Morgantown) in November.
6. Wisconsin
Current ranking: 16
Current record: 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten)
Expectation: We weren’t quite as high on Wisconsin as some. The Badgers had plenty of CFP hype with Jonathan Taylor returning at running back behind one of the nation’s top lines. Plus, UW actually had cross-division games that could give it the résumé boost it has lacked in recent years.
Reality: Yeah, you can’t lose at home to BYU. Some of our fears about the Badgers came to the surface in the 24-21 loss to the Cougars. Most notably, the lack of a downfield passing game with Alex Hornibrook was apparent. The Badgers bounced back by beating Iowa, but the loss to BYU could end up being a killer.
Outlook: The Big Ten West is a dumpster fire, so Wisconsin is still a significant favorite to win the division yet again. However, the Badgers have no margin for error whatsoever if they want to get to the College Football Playoff. Beating Michigan and Penn State, both on the road, would go a long way.
5. Georgia
Current ranking: 2
Current record: 5-0 (3-0 SEC)
Expectation: It wasn’t hard to pencil Georgia in as the class of the SEC East, but we had a few questions about the Bulldogs’ ability to make up the production they lost on the defense. Also, would Jake Fromm progress enough to hold off five-star freshman Justin Fields?
Reality: Georgia is still very good with ridiculous talent from top to bottom. Kirby Smart has really elevated the program and done so quickly. The Week 2 blowout win over South Carolina in Columbia was an emphatic statement to start the year, showing that Georgia is in a class of its own in the SEC East.
Outlook: UGA’s first challenge of the year is approaching. After hosting Vanderbilt this weekend, the Bulldogs travel to Baton Rouge to play No. 5 LSU in Death Valley in the first of four straight games against ranked opponents (Florida, Kentucky, Auburn).
4. Washington
Current ranking: 10
Current record: 4-1 (2-0 Pac-12)
Expectation: We were really high on Washington as the class of the Pac-12 and a legitimate CFP contender because of the amount of returning talent on both sides of the ball, especially the offense with Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin. The lone concern was the lack of proven downfield threats in the passing game.
Reality: An opening loss to Auburn was a setback for sure. The Huskies bounced back with four wins in a row. The victories over Utah and Arizona State were a bit underwhelming, especially on offense, but the Huskies put together their most complete win of the year by beating up on BYU, 35-7.
Outlook: A win in the Auburn game would have been a huge boost for UW and also the Pac-12 as a whole, but UW couldn’t get the job done. But that didn’t spell the end of the season by any means. If the Huskies can move through the Pac-12 unscathed, with games vs. No. 18 Oregon, No. 21 Colorado and No. 14 Stanford still to go, their CFP dreams will be within their grasp.
3. Ohio State
Current ranking: 3
Current record: 5-0 (2-0)
Expectation: Things were tenuous with the Buckeyes thanks to the offseason scandal involving former assistant Zach Smith that resulted in a three-game suspension for Urban Meyer. Provided OSU got through that stretch unscathed, the potential for the team in 2018 would be as high as we initially thought earlier in the offseason.
Reality: OSU won all three of its games without Meyer, setting up a showdown with Penn State in Happy Valley in Week 5. The Buckeyes came back from a two-score fourth quarter deficit and pulled out a 27-26 victory. All the while, Dwayne Haskins has been an improvement over J.T. Barrett as the team’s skill position players have taken noticeable steps forward in their development.
Outlook: The win over Penn State was huge. Now sitting atop the Big Ten East, Ohio State controls its own fate moving forward. OSU will be huge favorites in all of its October games before facing Michigan State and Michigan in November. Those games should ultimately decide the division and propel OSU on a path to the CFP.
2. Clemson
Current ranking: 4
Current record: 5-0 (2-0 ACC)
Expectation: The prowess of Clemson’s offensive line was written about plenty, but the underlying drama at the quarterback position was the team’s biggest question mark. Would senior Kelly Bryant, who struggled in the College Football Playoff semifinals against Alabama, be able to hold off star freshman Trevor Lawrence?
Reality: The quarterback drama came to a head after Week 4 when Dabo Swinney named Lawrence the starter, prompting Bryant’s decision to pursue a transfer. And then when Lawrence finally made his first start, he got injured. Chase Brice, the third-stringer, came in and engineered a comeback win over Syracuse. Lawrence is expected to return this week on the road against Wake Forest.
Outlook: Clemson is still clearly the best team in the ACC, but the health of Lawrence moving forward is paramount to the team’s success. His talent is obvious. If he wasn’t the better option to get the Tigers back to the CFP, Swinney would not have made the move. But he didn’t count on Bryant bolting, either.
1. Alabama
Current ranking: 1
Current record: 5-0 (2-0)
Expectation: We expected the Alabama juggernaut to barrel through its competition for yet another year — even with the potentially lingering awkwardness of an in-game quarterback switch in the national title game. And that awkwardness did linger, but the machine Nick Saban built would not let it become a distraction for another title-caliber team.
Reality: Tua Tagovailoa, as the entire world expected, supplanted Jalen Hurts as the Tide’s starter. The offense has taken off and Tagovailoa is the early favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Alabama has been so dominant in its 5-0 start that Tagovailoa hasn’t thrown a single pass in the fourth quarter.
Outlook: As things currently stand, it will be a few more weeks before Alabama faces much of a challenge. LSU, who we’re still not entirely sold on as a legitimate CFP contender for the long haul, will host the Tide on Nov. 3. The other test for the Tide before the postseason will be the Iron Bowl. As things currently stand, though, it’s hard to see Alabama losing to anybody in the regular season.
Who we missed … so far
Kentucky and LSU are the two biggest whiffs. Both SEC teams are undefeated and inside the top 15. Kentucky sits at No. 13 and LSU is at No. 5. The Wildcats travel to Texas A&M on Saturday while LSU takes on No. 22 Florida. The Gators are another team currently ranked inside the top 25 that we didn’t have on our preseason ballot. NC State, Colorado, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State are also in that group.
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