RB Frenzy: How Cook to Jets, Elliott to Patriots Impacts Fantasy Landscape

Exploring how Cook will elevate the Jets, Rodgers

Mike Florio and Chris Simms unpack the news Dalvin Cook has signed a one-year deal with the Jets, explore why he’s exactly who Aaron Rodgers needed and how far New York will go this season.

Free agent running back dominoes fell late Monday afternoon, and fantasy managers everywhere were left coping with the impact these signings would have on their early best ball and redraft teams.

As news broke of Ezekiel Elliott joining the Patriots on a one-year deal worth up to $6 million, the Jets were in talks with Dalvin Cook to finalize a one-year deal worth up to $8.6 million.

Both running backs join backfields that had the potential to feature elite bell cow backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and Breece Hall. While Stevenson and Hall should still lead their respective backfields in touches, the signings of Zeke and Cook certainly complicate things.

Still, we don't need to lose all hope in the stud running backs we've spent the past six months drafting. Both backs are well past the age apex when running backs begin to decline, and neither has been particularly efficient in recent years. Rather than lose our collective minds over these signings, let's reassess these situations as we prepare for the final weeks of fantasy draft season.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, Pro-Football-Reference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

NOTE 2.0: Be sure to check out the 2023 Rotoworld Online Draft Guide for updated tiers and player rankings.

Zeke, Touchdown Vulture Elite

Make no mistake about it, Ezekiel Elliott is very much on the decline. We've witnessed this for the last few seasons, but it finally came to a head in 2022.

After watching Zeke rumble to the tune of a career-low 3.6 YPC, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones knew the $10.5 million due to Zeke in 2023 couldn't come to fruition. Jones and head coach Mike McCarthy made perhaps the most gut-wrenching decision of their careers on March 15th when they decided it was time to cut ties with Elliott. A rushing line of 50-100-0 over the Cowboys' final four games of the regular/postseason likely served as the final nail in the coffin for the former All-Pro running back.

While Zeke struggled to produce the explosive runs we have grown used to seeing over the years, he remained a highly effective goal-line threat. Elliott converted 56.3 percent of his rushes from inside the five-yard line into touchdowns, which was good for the fourth-best touchdown rate among running backs in the same area of the field. Rhamondre Stevenson, on the other hand, converted 28.6 percent of those same touches into scores — ranking 23rd among running backs.

Stevenson's lack of touchdown production and short-yardage success likely spurred Bill Belichick's desire to go out and acquire Zeke. Last year's poor goal-line production was the opposite of what the Patriots saw in 2021, when Damien Harris (now with the Bills) punched in 64.3 percent of his touches from inside the five-yard line, converting 16 plunges into nine touchdowns. That season, Harris finished with 15 total rushing touchdowns, tying with James Conner for second-most in the league.

Harris' touchdown production from inside the five-yard line ranks as the second-best among any running back since 2021 (min. 10 i5ruATTS), while Elliott's production is good for the eighth best.

It seems glaringly obvious that Belichick hopes to get better touchdown production down in the green zone after Stevenson struggled in that area of the field all of last season.

Zeke will be a thorn in the side of Stevenson's overall touchdown upside, but Stevenson remains far and away the best back on the team. On a points-per-touch basis, he ranked 11th among qualified running backs at 0.90 points per touch and was third in yards after contact per attempt (3.81). Zeke will threaten to cut into the 32 percent opportunity share Harris enjoyed last season, but I'd expect most stolen touches to come in short-yardage situations or near the goal line.

The loss of goal-line touches undoubtedly hurt, but Stevenson was also utilized heavily as a receiver, with a 17 percent target share — tying with Saquon Barkley for the third-best target share among running backs. Since 2020, Zeke has seen only a nine percent target share and is coming off a career-low 17 receptions. Stevenson's receiving floor remains high as he should handle most third-down work.

How to Play It

Belichick isn't asking Elliott to completely replace Stevenson. He needs him to do the one thing Stevenson has struggled with — scoring touchdowns in the most valuable area of the field.

That's tough news for those who have spent all summer drafting Stevenson, but the outcome could have been far worse had the team opted to sign Cook or Leonard Fournette.

Unlike Cooke and Fournette, Zeke won't threaten for work in the passing game, and early down runs should primarily go to Stevenson, who is the far more efficient runner. Looking at last year's rushing yards over expected, Stevenson ranked 10th in the league on a per-touch basis at 0.58 RYOE/ATT. Conversely, Zeke ranked 43rd among 48 qualified backs (min. 90 ruATTS) at -0.34.

I'm by no means out on Stevenson. In fact, any dip he sees in ADP could benefit those still willing to draft him. His receiving upside and rushing efficiency should be enough to keep him in the conversation as a high-end RB2 in a Patriots offense that's expected to improve in 2023. It's worth remembering Stevenson scored just six touchdowns in 2022 and still finished as the RB11 in fantasy points per game (15.0) last season. He still has a chance to outperform that total, even with Elliott in town.

Zeke is almost certain to see a rise in ADP after going in the mid-double-digit rounds for much of the offseason, but a low-volume role could make him a nightmare when it comes to start/sit decisions. Barring an unexpected turn in this backfield's touch distribution, Zeke feels like little more than a touchdown-dependent RB3 who will deliver his share of dud weeks.

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Dalvin Joins Gang Green

On the surface, it's hard to imagine Dalvin Cook is hitting a decline. The four-time Pro Bowler posted a line of 264-1,173-8 on the ground and still averaged 4.4 yards per carry. Couple that with his 39 receptions for 295 yards and two touchdowns, and we're led to believe the Jets found themselves a high-end back to pair with Breece Hall, right?

Well, not exactly.

Cook's six-year career has been marred with injuries. And despite him playing all 17 games in 2022, he nursed a shoulder injury throughout most of the season and will be sidelined for at least a week of Jets training camp after undergoing shoulder surgery earlier this offseason. He's dealt with multiple shoulder injuries since 2019, which includes a torn labrum and dislocation in 2021.

We can't knock Cook's toughness for gutting out games, but his efficiency has likely taken a direct hit because of it. Here's how he fared in several advanced metrics last season.

Entering his age-28 season, Cook's best years appear to be behind him. While he's still capable of shouldering a significant workload, his overall lack of efficiency makes him difficult to trust. Especially when you compare him to second-year running back Breece Hall, who was among the league's most efficient backs before going down.

Hall ranked fourth among running backs as a rookie with 1.18 fantasy points per touch (min. 50 carries) and averaged an impressive 5.8 yards per carry. His 4.13 yards after contact per attempt was second among qualified runners, behind only Rashaad Penny (4.23).

The biggest question surrounding Hall heading into this season is how he'll perform on his surgically repaired knee. Head coach Robert Saleh has appeared mostly optimistic about Hall's return throughout the offseason, but he's yet to test it out in training camp.

At some point, Hall will return, but the signing of Cook raises questions about whether or not he'll officially be ready for Week 1. It's also possible the Jets spend several weeks easing Hall back onto the field.

When he does return, Cook's role in the offense will take a toll on his fantasy upside. While I'd expect Hall to remain the RB1 for the Jets, the fact he and Cook both possess three-down skillsets makes the two backs somewhat interchangeable. Cook can spell Hall on any down and distance and could just as easily be used in the red zone.

How to Play It

Hall and Cook will see slight hits to their fantasy values as a result of this signing. Hall, who has been going as a high-end RB2 for the last two weeks in BB10 drafts, now projects as a low-end RB2, while Cook projects as a high-end RB3.

Cook's fantasy value early in the season would see a boost if Hall were to miss the first few weeks, but his season-long outlook remains lower than Hall's overall.

If there's one unknown in all of this, it's how Aaron Rodgers' influence could play a role in the Jets' running back situation. The pay cut he took earlier this offseason helped put the team in a position to sign Cook, and we know Rodgers' influence led to the signings of players like Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.

Still, if we play it straight and bet on talent, Hall will ultimately be the back to roster in this offense once healthy.