Ranking the 12 NFL playoff teams from worst to first

Playtime's over. The little kids have gone home for their nuggets and chips and an early bedtime, leaving the big boys to play their big boy games. Let the 2018 NFL playoffs begin.

There was plenty of high drama to close the regular season, with the Baltimore Ravens needing a last-ditch interception to seal a win over Cleveland and take the AFC North over the Pittsburgh Steelers, who had squeaked past the Cincinnati Bengals earlier in the day.

In the NFC the Vikings relinquished their grip of the sixth seed with defeat by the Bears and let the champion Eagles in the back door. Now Nick Foles has the opportunity to go and do it all again.

With a week's break before the Colts and Texans, Chargers and Ravens, Eagles and Bears, and Seahawks and Cowboys battle it out on wild card weekend, we've ranked the last 12 teams standing in the NFL by how likely they are to win the grand prize. Here they are, from worst to first ...

12. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are the wild card of this season's playoffs, and I don't just mean in the sense that they are literally a wild card team. They looked dead and buried just a few short weeks ago. The season had been written off as a colossal disappointment. Then Carson Wentz suffered a back injury, Nick Foles was back in, and he was beating the Rams in their own building - just as he did on the way to the Super Bowl.

Make no mistake, Wentz is a better quarterback than Foles, but Foles is the one the Eagles need right now. Sometimes narrative trumps all reason. What Foles has done, though, is get the best out of Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor, who had both been struggling with Wentz under centre. Zach Ertz had been doing the brunt of the work in the receiving game, breaking the season receptions record for a tight end in the process, but Foles has spread the love a little, and is offering more of a deep threat. Maybe it's because he's playing with nothing to lose.

Logic says Philadelphia can't defend their title. Beating the Bears in wild card weekend feels like an insurmountable task. But sport isn't always logical. Just ask Leicester City.

11. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have been one of the most fun teams in the league this year, and no one really saw it coming. We all cautiously hoped Andrew Luck might get somewhere close to being the same player we all fell in love with five years ago, but no one predicted him leading the Colts to 10 wins and into January football. Luck has been aided by the best offensive line and running game he's had the pleasure to work with, but he deserves all the headlines. He's been excellent, and appears to be a smarter quarterback for his time on the sidelines.

The Colts went into the offseason with the sole aim of building a team to protect Luck. They drafted Quenton Nelson and created an line which has kept him sack-free in six of his 16 games. Most crucially, they've given him time in the pocket, which is when he's at his best. Not even a wide receiver room full of potentially made up players has been able to stop him.

The defense has also been an extremely pleasant surprise. They finished the season just outside the top 10 in yards allowed, and didn't let a rusher go over 100 all season. Rookie linebacker Darius Leonard deserves a special mention - the second-rounder leads the league in tackles and his Pro Bowl snub is a total crime. Will the Colts find themselves overmatched at some point in the postseason? Probably. But the future is extremely bright in Indianapolis once again.

10. Dallas Cowboys

If you're looking for a reason the Cowboys can win the Super Bowl, go back and watch their win over the Saints a few weeks back. That was the best defensive display I've seen from any NFL team all season. Dallas utterly dominated Drew Brees, words you rarely get to utter without ridicule, and then punished them on the ground with Ezekiel Elliott. That's exactly the blueprint for the Cowboys' success into January. If the likes of Jaylon Smith, Byron Jones, Leighton Vander Esch and Randy Gregory can play to the elite level they were during Dallas' five-game winning streak, they know Elliott will provide the goods to pound teams into submission when Dak Prescott has the ball.

Speaking of Prescott, is there a more underrated, or more unfairly maligned quarterback in football? Last week he became the first QB ever to win at least 30 games and throw fewer than 25 interceptions in his first three seasons. The comeback over the Giants on Sunday was his 14th game-winning drive of his career - no one has more since he entered the league - and it also marked his third straight season with 20 passing and five rushing touchdowns. No other quarterback in history even has two. 

The Cowboys' issue is in their coaching - I have no faith in Jason Garrett to take them to the Super Bowl, and think he is probably foiled by Pete Carroll on wild card weekend, but hey, stranger things have happened, right?

9. Houston Texans

The Texans have one very clear problem - Deshaun Watson can't stop getting sacked. Part of that is on the offensive line, which has been far better at run blocking than pass protection, but Watson is still guilty of holding on to the ball too long, and that's why he's taken an absolute battering this year - 62 sacks to be exact, the most in the NFL.

However, outside of that the Texans have a lot going for them. Watson has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the second half of the season, and hasn't thrown an interception since week 11 against the Redskins. His mobility in the pocket is a joy to watch, and he's hurting teams in the running game too - three rushing touchdowns in the last two weeks may be a sign of things to come in January.

It's in the running game that Houston have built the majority of their success. They're eighth in the league in rushing yards, with Lamar Miller enjoying one of the best seasons of his seven-year career. They rush the ball 45.5 per cent of the time, the sixth most in the NFL, and follow the old school philosophy of grinding teams down on both sides of the ball. The defense in top 10 in the league in yards and points allowed.

Finally, I can't talk about the Texans without mentioning DeAndre Hopkins, who's been the best receiver in the league this year for my money. Hopkins has 115 catches for 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns. Want to know how many drops he has? Zero. Hopkins is so good it's often safer to throw to him in coverage than to another receiver when open. An incredible talent. 

8. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have the same philosophy as the Texans, except they do it just a little bit better. Seattle run the ball more than 50 per cent of the time - that's the most in the NFL - and the result is they lead the league in rushing yards. Chris Carson is the workhorse - a real tough, never-say-die back who anyone would want on their roster - but Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny are excellent second and third options.

No one saw the Seahawks' playoff run coming in September, but they're a different team now. A team which has shown an ability to win close games and push the very best opposition to the wire. The victories over Carolina, Green Bay and Minnesota stand out, as do the two one-score losses to the Rams, but it was last week's shootout defeat of the rampant Chiefs that really made the NFL sit up and remember: by god Russell Wilson is good.

Wilson was a secondary part of the Seahawks' offense for much of the year, often asked to throw fewer than 20 times per game. That's in total opposition to how he's been asked to carry the team in past seasons, but Seattle seem to have found the perfect balance down the stretch. Wilson outshone Patrick Mahomes in that win over Kansas City, and he's developed an almost telepathic connection with wide receiver Tyler Lockett. Wilson had a perfect passer rating when targeting Lockett this season, that's never happened before in NFL history, with any quarterback or any receiver. Watch out for these Seahawks, they can beat anyone on their day.

7. Baltimore Ravens

Can I tell you a secret? I was really happy when the Ravens, not the Steelers, scraped their way into the playoffs last night. It was not without drama. I don't mean anything against Pittsburgh - they serve fries inside their sandwiches there, which is inspired stuff - I'm just really excited to see what Lamar Jackson and this team can do in January. I think they're a sneaky bet to win the whole damn thing.

The Ravens are a totally different proposition since Jackson replaced Joe Flacco at quarterback. Everyone knows they want to run the ball at every opportunity - not just with the quarterback, but Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon too - but Jackson's sheer ability and awareness makes it so hard to stop. Just ask the Browns, Chargers, Buccaneers, Chiefs... you get the idea. Jackson's rushing stats in his first seven starts are incredible. He's gone for 119, 71, 75, 67, 95, 39 and 90, but he's far from the psuedo-running back/wide receiver so many would have you believe. Jackson has proved himself as a passer. Teams will come up with strategies to stop him as he puts together more tape in this league, but right now no one seems to have the answer.

Of course, Jackson couldn't be so successful without Baltimore's league-leading defense. They're the only team in the NFL averaging less than 300 yards and less than 18 points per game. I have a feeling these guys could go deep into January. In one-on-one match-ups, the Chiefs are the only team I'd take over Baltimore in the AFC.

6. New England Patriots

When the Patriots book their customary first-round playoff bye (this is their ninth in a row, ludicrous behaviour), you normally expect them to go on and win the Super Bowl. That's just how it works. Not this year. I mean, not a single fibre of my being would be surprised to see Tom Brady hoist the Lombardi on Feb 3, but I think there are five other teams better set up to go all the way this season.

This is the worst Patriots defense in years - they're bad at stopping both the run and the pass - they have a lack of quality options at receiver now that Josh Gordon has been suspended, Rob Gronkowski appears to be in the twilight of his career and - whisper it - Brady has only been good, not great. Brady is far from a problem - he's still playing like a top 10 quarterback - but he's not the same world-beating guy who won MVP last year. He looks fallible.

The Pats have responded to this by leaning more on their run game, which makes sense, as they have one of the most varied and dangerous backfields in the league. Rookie Sony Michel had made a nice start to life in New England, James White is everything you expect from James White, and Bill Belichick has even been using Cordarrelle Patterson effectively as a rusher. Belichick can outcoach anyone - that's why you can never write off the Pats - but for the first time ever I'd feel comfortable betting against them this year.

5. Chicago Bears

I think each one of these top five teams has a great shot at winning the Super Bowl, and the Bears have an opportunity to go from last in their division to first in the whole league, just as the Eagles did 10 months ago. Chicago have won their first division title since 2010 off the back of a formidable defense. The Bears already had a top 10 unit last year, but Khalil Mack has taken them to the next level. Mack's seven turnovers have helped Chicago to the second best differential in the NFL behind Seattle. He also has 12.5 sacks and 47 tackles, but Mack is far from the only star on this defense. Akiem Hicks has been excellent alongside him, and Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson have been unstoppable in the secondary. It feels like one of them pulls off a game-changing interception every week.

On offense, I don't see Mitchell Trubisky ever developing into a quarterback at the level of Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson from his same draft class, but I do think he's solid. With a defense this good, that can be enough. Chicago have been able to get Jordan Howard more and more involved as the season's gone on, and Tarik Cohen is that X-factor player you never want to take your eyes off. There's a reason they called him the human joystick in college.

4. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers may just be the most balanced team in the NFL. They've actually been good for a couple of years, but couldn't help but pull off that oh so Chargery trick of blowing games and failing to live up to their massive potential. Such fun for their fans! This team is different. They proved that when they beat the Steelers with that brilliant come-from-behind win in week 13. They proved it again when they turned over the Chiefs two weeks later. Yep, these Chargers are for real, and they have the tools to go all the way.

Philip Rivers has played to an MVP level all year - his one wobble was in the defeat by Baltimore last week - Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler have been the most effective running back duo in the league, the offensive line is top level and Keenan Allen is one of the best receivers out there. Offense: check.

The defense gets a huge boost from Joey Bosa's return. He's now fit enough to line up alongside pro bowler Melvin Ingram, but LA's headliner has actually been a rookie - 16th overall pick Derwin James. The Chargers couldn't believe it when James fell to them in the draft, and his making a lot of other front offices look silly with his clear talent on the field. His 105 tackles, 3.5 sacks and three interceptions are indicative of a safety who can do it all. The game tape backs that up soundly. Defense: check. 

They even seem to have sorted their kicking problems out, with Michael Badgley looking accomplished since joining midway through the season. It might seem cruel to the San Diego faithful if their once-beloved team finally won the big one after deserting their city, but football, like life, can be a real SOB.

3. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams gave us a scare down the stretch. Three poor games in a row had us worrying they'd peaked too early, but they've assuaged fans' fears by blowing out the Cardinals and 49ers to close the season. I know, beating the Cardinals and 49ers isn't anything to shout about, but the Rams looked like their old selves in those victories. Most importantly Jared Goff rediscovered some form after putting in horrible showings against the Lions, Bears and Eagles.

The Rams have the most stacked offense in the NFL. Todd Gurley has been a touchdown machine, and now has CJ Anderson for support in the backfield. At receiver they miss Cooper Kupp, but still have Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds all playing to a really high level. Question marks still hang over Goff despite his excellent start to the season, but Sean McVay is a good enough head coach to paper over his QB's cracks. It's hard to argue there's a better offensive play caller in football right now.

The defense has been an issue. It's given up 30 or more points seven times this season, and the return of Aqib Talib hasn't been the fix-all bandage many fans hoped. However, what LA do have on defense is possibly the best player in the National Football League period in Aaron Donald. Donald alone can turn games on their heads with his elite playmaking ability. His 20.5 sacks are silly numbers for an interior lineman. There's not been an easier Defensive Player of the Year vote in years. The Rams may be an offense-first outfit, but Donald is their MVP.

2. Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is the MVP, and I will not hear otherwise. It's not even just the stats (though he's thrown for an outrageous 50 touchdowns and more than 5,000 yards), it's the manner in which he's gone about putting up those numbers. Every week Mahomes makes throws no one else in the league can. And yes, that includes Aaron Rodgers. He'll rip you apart in the pocket and is lethal on the move. Name a more entertaining player to watch in the NFL right now and I'll call you a liar.

Mahomes is certainly helped by having one of the more unique receivers in the league at his disposal, in the form of Tyreek Hill, and one of the best receiving tight ends in Travis Kelce, but it's the big man on the sideline who really allows him to flourish. Andy Reid is one of the greatest offensive minds in football, and this Chiefs team is his greatest creation. He may never get a better shot at that elusive Lombardi trophy.

Kansas City's achilles heel is their defense. Yes they have big playmakers like Dee Ford and Chris Jones, but only five teams gave up more than the Chiefs' 26.4 points per game this season, and they're all picking at the top of the draft. In the last three weeks the Seahawks and Chargers - teams with top defenses - have found ways to beat them, and the Ravens came very close too. It's the Chargers and Ravens Reid will be most worried about facing again en route to Atlanta.

1. New Orleans Saints

The Saints are the team to beat in the NFL, and if anyone wants to stop them making it to the Super Bowl they're going to have to do it in New Orleans. That's an enormous factor - we know how good Drew Brees is in the Superdome, and that stadium will be absolutely rocking with a chance to win it all in their most hated rivals' hometown on the line.

For me, Brees finishes just behind Mahomes in the MVP race, but he's had another stunning season. His completion percentage of just under 75 per cent is the best in NFL history - the fourth time he's broken that record. He's thrown 32 touchdowns to just five interceptions - no starting quarterback in the league has fewer picks - and his QB rating of 115.7 is also a league-best.

But what's been most impressive about the Saints this year is the manner of some of their biggest wins. That commanding 45-35 victory over the Rams in week nine, the 48-7 demolition of the reigning champion Eagles in week 11, the desire and winning mentality they showed in week 16's comeback against the Steelers. This is a team who can win big football games, and once you get into January they don't come much bigger.

We know all about the Saints' offensive weapons - Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas are among the best players in the league at their position - but the New Orleans defense has improved markedly as the season's gone on. Their run defense ranks first in the NFL, and while the pass defense stats don't look great, they've been much better in the second half of the season, when Marshon Lattimore has got back to last season's level and with the addition of Eli Apple. The Saints are Super Bowl-bound. Change my mind.