Rangers vs. Capitals NHL playoff preview: 3 questions, key matchups and prediction

Some believe the course of the New York Rangers' franchise was altered on May 3, 2021.

That was the night Washington Capitals menace Tom Wilson punched a defenseless Pavel Buchnevich in the back of the head and rag-dolled Artemi Panarin, setting off a chain of events that led to the sudden firings of Blueshirts team president John Davidson and general manager Jeff Gorton.

It wasn't that incident alone that convinced owner James Dolan to blow up the front office − the way the Rangers were manhandled by the rival Islanders late that season had just as much, if not more, to do with it − but the narrative took hold nonetheless.

The Capitals, and more specifically Wilson, broke the Rangers.

Three years later, New York and Washington will faceoff in the first round of the NHL playoffs, beginning with Game 1 on Sunday at 3 p.m. at Madison Square Garden.

Any remaining bad blood is a bigger topic for fans than it is within the walls of either locker room, but the symbolism can't be the denied.

The Rangers have taken off since the spring of 2021, with Chris Drury ascending to the top of the organization and executing a series of moves aimed at making them a "harder team to play against." In reality, the star power of Panarin, Igor Shesterkin and others is most responsible for the Blueshirts' recent run of success − three straight postseason appearances, capped with the fourth Presidents' Trophy in franchise history this season − than any added grit. But there's no question New York has molded itself into a more complete team since the Wilson drama.

The Capitals have been trending in the opposite direction. Only four players are left from the team that won a Stanley Cup in 2018 − Wilson, John Carlson, T.J. Oshie and future Hall of Famer Alex Ovechkin − with three of them now 34 or older. They haven't won a playoff series since that championship and missed the tournament altogether last season for the first time in nine years.

But to the surprise of many, here they are. Washington was expected to enter a rebuild period, yet rallied its way to claiming the Eastern Conference's second and final wild card.

It's hard to figure out exactly how, especially given the Caps' unsightly negative-37 goal differential − the worst of any NHL playoff team in the salary-cap era. They were seven points out of a playoff spot entering the all-star break and sellers at the trade deadline, shipping away veterans Joel Edmundson, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Anthony Mantha. Yet, with a hot goalie and a knack for pulling out close games, they clawed their way past an underwhelming field of wild-card contenders.

The Rangers will enter as heavy favorites, as they should be after setting new franchise records for wins (55) and total points (114). A convincing series win would bring closure and end any last-gasp hopes of milking one last run out of this Washington core. But the Blueshirts can't afford to take these battle-tested Caps lightly − a team they split the season series with, 2-2 − or else their championship DNA might take hold.

3 questions

1) Will the Rangers' stars start strong?

They may not need everyone clicking on all cylinders to beat the aging Caps, but it would be a good omen for the rest of the playoffs if most of the New York's stars look the part.

All eyes will be on Panarin, who's coming off a stellar 120-point regular season but has averaged only 0.67 points per game in 30 career postseason appearances with the Rangers. That includes going six straight games without a point in last year's first-round loss to the New Jersey Devils, which left him feeling "empty" and fueled this season's dominance. No one could use a fast start more than No. 10 to exorcise those demons.

Shesterkin feels like a fairly safe bet given his strong second half (17-5-1 with a .930 save percentage since the all-star break) and history of playoff success, as does Adam Fox (36 points in 33 games since the break, ranking third among NHL defensemen). But it would also be encouraging to see Mika Zibanejad heat up coming off his lowest points per game season (.89) since 2017-18.

The Rangers have plenty of other key players, including but not limited to Chris Kreider, K'Andre Miller and Vincent Trocheck, but they need the aforementioned four to lead them.

2) What will the D pairs look like?

After keeping the same defensemen pairings basically all season (excluding injury absences), Rangers coach Peter Laviolette decided to change things up at the 11th hour.

For the final two games of the regular season, he split up his usual matchup duo of Miller and captain Jacob Trouba and tried playing them with different partners. Miller reunited with Braden Schneider, with whom he put together a promising stretch while Trouba missed 11 games due to a lower-body injury last month, while Trouba was moved with veteran Erik Gustafsson.

The results were fairly encouraging, with the Rangers allowing only two goals in their final two games while outshooting their opponents by a combined 77-61 margin. The balanced approach allowed Laviolette to roll all three pairs evenly, as opposed to asking one or two to take on the toughest assignments all game. The Miller-Trouba pair, in particular, was prone to costly mistakes when consistently faced with the most difficult matchups.

For those reasons, signs are pointing to the Blueshirts entering the playoffs how they finished the regular season. That means Ryan Lindgren and Fox, Miller and Schneider, Gustafsson and Trouba. And if at any point Laviolette decides he wants to pivot, he knows he can always go back to the familiar setup he used for the vast majority of the season.

3. Will we see Filip Chytil?

This is the biggest mystery of them all entering the playoffs.

A few weeks ago, there seemed to be no chance. Chytil was expected to miss the season following a suspected concussion on Nov. 2 and ensuing setback on Jan. 26, but he was medically cleared last week and made a surprise return to practice.

The Rangers are understandably proceeding with caution given the nature of head injuries and the 24-year-old forward's increasing sensitivity to them. But if all goes well, one person with knowledge of the situation told lohud.com, part of the USA TODAY Network, there's a real possibility he suits up in the playoffs. Laviolette has repeatedly stated "there's no timetable" for when that might be, but they surely have at least a loose plan in mind.

With Chytil cleared for contact and practicing with the team, an appearance in the series against Washington can't be ruled out. But it's also very possible they give him a slower ramp-up period before throwing him into the playoff fire.

Other considerations could be need and/or timing. There's no reason to rush him right now, but if the Rangers fall behind in a series and want to create a spark, they could call on the speedy Chytil to provide it. There's also a chance of injury to another top-nine forward, which would open a spot for the 6-foot-2, 208-pounder.

If the decision is made to insert him, the most logical landing spot would be at third-line center. That would ease him in with a relatively light workload while creating a new version of the Kid Line with rookie Will Cuylle and old friend Kaapo Kakko. It could also slide trade-deadline acquisition Alex Wennberg down to the fourth line, where his defensive skills might play well in between Barclay Goodrow and Jimmy Vesey.

The other option would be using Chytil to replace Jack Roslovic at right wing next to Kreider and Zibanejad, but that line finished the regular season strong and would come with a more demanding defensive role.

3 key matchups

1) Alex Ovechkin's line vs. Mika Zibanejad's line

The Caps don't have an elite scoring line that can match the Rangers' high-flying trio of Panarin, Trocheck and Alexis Lafrenière, but even at 38 years old, Ovechkin remains a threat any opposing team should be aware of.

He scored a team-high 31 goals − 22 of which came after the all-star break − and finished the season playing with Oshie and Washington's top young forward, Connor McMichael. It led to some odd results. They've outscored opponents, 5-4, in over 136 minutes together and produced both of the Caps' goals in their playoff-clinching win over the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday, but they've also posted an ugly 36.4% xGF, according to moneypuck.com.

At times this season, Laviolette has designated his fourth line for defensive assignments against opposing teams' top lines. But more often than not, he's given those responsibilities to Kreider, Zibanejad and whoever their RW is. If that's the case in this series, they should win their matchup handily.

It will be imperative for Kreider, Zibanejad and Roslovic to continue the five-on-five breakout that began in the final two games of the regular season, when they outshot their opponents, 18-5, and scored a key goal in the Presidents' Trophy-clinching win over the Senators.

That line sputtered offensively much of the season, with only eight of Zibanejad's 26 goals coming at 5v5. But he was flying in those final two games, with a chance to keep that momentum rolling against the Caps.

2) Charlie Lindgren vs. Rangers' scorers

The Capitals likely wouldn't be here if it weren't for the efforts of goalie Charlie Lindgren, who seized the starting job from Darcy Kuemper this season and hasn't looked back.

The older brother of Rangers' defenseman Ryan Lindgren, Charlie finally broke through at age 30 after six years of grinding away in the AHL. He went 25-16-7 with a .911 SV% and 18.58 goals saved above expected, which ranked ninth in the league and three spots ahead of Shesterkin, according to Evolving Hockey. Down the stretch, he may have been Washington's most important player.

He could be an X-factor in this series, as well, if he can stay hot and frustrate the likes of Kreider, Panarin and Zibanejad. He's done it before, with a .955 SV% and 1.35 goals against average in three career appearances against New York, including a 4-0 Caps' win on Dec. 9.

The key will be creating traffic around the Capitals' net and forcing Lindgren to fight through screens, which has been the most vulnerable facet of his game.

3) Tom Wilson (and others) vs. Rangers' grit

It's not about finding something to drop the gloves with Wilson, although Rangers rookie Matt Rempe will surely be ready and willing if called upon, but rather being ready to handle the size and muscle Washington will try to throw at them.

The Caps lack the speed and skill necessary to win high-scoring track meets. Their best chance at pulling off an upset in this series will be to slow things down and drag their opponents into the mud. They're comfortable in that environment, as evidenced by 20 wins in one-goal games this season.

That's largely how they made their second-half playoff push. First-year head coach Spencer Carbery recognized the need to adjust on the fly and got the players to buy into a heavier, grinding style.

That shift in thinking has been visible in their offensive approach. Washington likes to load up bodies in the home-plate area in front and around opposing teams' nets, with many of its goals − tips, rebounds, screens and things of that nature − coming from those high-danger parts of the ice.

Since the all-star break, the Caps have created 94 broken play scoring chances and scored on 23 of them, with those totals respectively ranking third and eighth in the NHL, according to Clear Sight Analytics. There's an added emphasis on scoring greasy goals in the playoffs, when finesse plays are harder to come by as teams ramp up their forecheck and tighten their defense.

The Rangers are going to have to prove they can effectively defend those areas while matching − or exceeding − Washington's physicality. Wilson is just the kind of player who cause headaches in that regard, along with the Capitals' fourth line of Beck Malenstyn, Nic Dowd and Nicolas Aube-Kubel.

Prediction

My two main concerns for the Rangers entering these playoffs are their ability to defend against the rush and their five-on-five scoring beyond the Panarin-Trocheck-Lafrenière trio, which finished the season as the highest-scoring line in hockey.

The thing is, I don't think the Capitals have enough firepower to expose either of those weaknesses. New York ranks 29th in expected goals against in rush situations, according to CSA, but Washington only ranks 24th in capitalizing on those opportunities. The Caps aren't quick enough − and don't have enough skill in transition − to consistently make the Blueshirts pay for those mistakes.

As for the 5v5 scoring, we've already gone over the advantage Zibanejad's line should have by not having to go against an upper-echelon center. That gives me confidence they can ease the offensive burden on Panarin, Trocheck and Lafrenière, with Washington lacking the scoring punch to match New York's top six. Consider that the Rangers finished the season with five players who registered more than 70 points (Panarin, Trocheck, Kreider, Fox and Zibanejad), while the Capitals' leading scorer was Dylan Strome with 67 points.

Making it even more of an uphill climb for the Caps will be their disadvantage on special teams. They ranked 17th on the power play (20.6%) and 18th on the penalty kill (79.0%), while New York finished third in both categories (26.4% on the PP and 84.5% on the PK).

All the pieces are in place to make this a short series, which would be huge for the Rangers to begin what they hope will be a long postseason. The vast majority of their roster was around for the 2022 run to the Eastern Conference Finals, when they went seven games in each of the first two rounds and played 20 games in 40 days before running out of gas.

They have a chance to conserve some of that energy if they back up my prediction of Rangers in five.

Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.

This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Rangers vs. Capitals preview: 3 questions, key matchups and prediction