How prop bets became a Super Bowl betting phenomenon
Yahoo Sports’ Jason Fitz is joined by Doug Kezirian of Only Players to discuss how the practice has been the main method for the betting public - and offer up a pair of enticing picks for Sunday’s game between the 49ers and Chiefs.
Video Transcript
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JASON FITZ: Jason Fitz with Doug Kezirian at the Yahoo Sportsbook in the Venetian Resort Las Vegas and Doug, everybody at the Super Bowl is going to start talking about prop bets. We're all doing it when we're hanging out. How did we get here?
DOUG KEZIRIAN: Yeah, we started in 1986 when the Fridge scored a touchdown for the Bears back in the day and over the years it's just grown exponentially. I believe the first cross-sport prop was 1990-- Michael Jordan's total points versus the Niners points in the Super Bowl-- and it's just become such a big thing, as you alluded to, Jason.
And right now-- I mean, a few years ago it was a little bit more than 50% representing the total money bet on the Super Bowl, but now I'm hearing from oddsmakers like 2/3 of the total money bet on the Super Bowl will be on prop bets because there's so many of them. And about one third of the total money on the point spread and the over-under.
JASON FITZ: Let me oversimplify here though because I feel that to my bones. When we go to Super Bowl parties everybody starts talking-- what are your props? Like, that's the first question, right? Like, people joining each other. It's like, hey, I'll ride that with you. It feels like this is part of it. Like, it's become a cultural phenomenon because of the conversation it creates.
DOUG KEZIRIAN: It's part of the fabric of the game, for sure. It's like the fight world, right? UFC, boxing, it's talked about in that sense and acceptable. To your point, Super Bowl parties.
JASON FITZ: So let's talk props you like. Give me a couple of these stand out to you.
DOUG KEZIRIAN: All right, first and foremost, Patrick Mahomes. A little obscure, but his first rush attempt over 6 and 1/2 yards. Now what happened last year, and books took one on the chin, usually quarterbacks are priced around 3 and 1/2 yards because you have the potential of a fourth and inches, a QB sneak, right? But the Chiefs don't run sneaks with Mahomes. The last time they did it was a few years ago and he got hurt. So it's sometimes Kelce taking the snap or it's a conventional handoff. So they bumped it up to 6 and 1/2 and I just don't think that's high enough, because if he breaks containment, he's fast enough, and he'll go the extra yards.
There's no sliding in the Super Bowl. All hands on deck. Last year his first run was eight yards on the first drive, I believe, so I like over 6 and 1/2 there. Second one is pretty conventional-- Brock Purdy MVP. I understand that other guys can win, particularly McCaffrey, but you're telling me the quarterback-- so the quarterback position gets a lot of deference-- the quarterback of the team that's favored and that has received sharp money from professional syndicate betting groups to win the Super Bowl-- the quarterback is like plus-230.
I mean, even in the conference title weekend where both the AFC and NFC games were like a little so-so, the quarterbacks didn't play that great, I think both would have won MVP if those were the Super Bowl. So, again, the deference component, I think plus 230-range is just-- that's value in my eyes.
JASON FITZ: That's the beauty of the prop system, right? Like, you just mentioned one play and one player. And no matter how you're watching the game, that one play, that one player makes it more fun to do all of it. Thanks for hanging out with me.
DOUG KEZIRIAN: You got it, buddy. Thanks.
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