Projecting Quenton Nelson’s upcoming contract extension
Indianapolis Colts left guard Quenton Nelson is entering the final year of his rookie contract, playing the 2022 season on the fifth-year option. While he’s already one of the highest-paid guards in the NFL, his upcoming contract extension is going to reset the market at the position.
It’s not a matter of if Nelson will get extended. It’s only a matter of when the deal comes to fruition. It could happen before the team officially reports for training camp on July 26. It could happen sometime during the regular season. But we should expect it to happen sooner rather than later.
Nelson has been everything the Colts have wanted when they selected him with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft. He’s earned three All-Pro First Team and four Pro Bowl selections since entering the NFL. He has missed only three games in his career, all of which came in 2021.
Before we get into the actual projection for Nelson’s contract, we need to take a look around the league first. Nelson is going to reset the market at the position, but it’s important to see what he will be comparing his potential deal to.
According to Spotrac, these are the highest contracts at the guard position, sorted by average annual value (AAV):
(Figures courtesy of Spotrac)
Even though Nelson would only need to make $17 million annually to be the highest-paid guard, that’s likely going to be too low of a figure. We should expect something in the $19-20 million range per season. That’s likely coming on a five-year deal considering Nelson is 26 years old.
While Nelson is likely going to exceed the total values of those contracts by a significant margin, the number to keep an eye on is the guaranteed money. That’s what it always comes down to and when teams get in trouble with the salary cap, it typically stems from an abundance of guaranteed money.
Given the likelihood of the extension having a higher total value than the current list, we shouldn’t expect Nelson to see a guaranteed percentage like Brandon Scherff’s. That would be unrealistic.
However, we could see Nelson approach Thuney’s guaranteed percentage, especially with the salary cap expected to go up again in 2023.
The other question that will be difficult to answer will be when the extension kicks in. Does the first year of the new deal replace the 2022 season, or does it become effective afterward?
The trend with other players has been that the extension kicks in after the conclusion of the current season. So the contract extensions that Darius Leonard, Braden Smith and Nyheim Hines signed before the 2021 season don’t begin until the 2022 season.
Nelson is already guaranteed a $13.8 million salary in 2022 due to the fifth-year option.
So what will the contract look like? Here’s our projection:
Five years, $97.5 million with $53 million guaranteed
