Preview and prediction: Michigan football vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

One team looked incredible through three-quarters of the season, the other struggled to get by. One team got an early ranked win on the road, the other got a late one. The past two weeks have changed some narratives, none bigger than for the program that employs Jim Harbaugh, who will not be roaming the sidelines in Ann Arbor.

The Game is nearly upon us, and what was long looked at as a formality for Michigan is back to being a pick ’em. And given the nature of this rivalry, there’s no telling what will happen.

The stakes have never been higher. Both teams are undefeated. A win for Michigan football, fair or not, validates what the Wolverines have done. Also fair or not, a loss invalidates it. A loss for Ohio State could be potentially catastrophic, upending the current regime, especially since the maize and blue will have an interim coach on the sidelines. There are multiple storylines off the field that heighten what’s already the greatest rivalry in sports.

So what will it be? Let’s dig in a little more.

Michigan offense vs. Ohio State defense

Photo: Isaiah Hole

The Buckeyes brought in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to right the wrongs from the loss in The Game in 2021. However, after the OSU defense looked vastly improved for the first 11 games in 2022, the result was similar, just with a different script.

The 2023 iteration likely relies heavily upon Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, whose ability to extend plays and use his legs provides a different element his rival on the other side cannot match. McCarthy has shown pinpoint accuracy up until the Purdue game (besides the Week 3 contest against Bowling Green). He was accurate against Penn State (7-for-8 for 60 yards) but wasn’t the star of the show. Michigan will likely need him to be this game. His health has been a concern since the tilt in Happy Valley, but he and acting head coach Sherrone Moore have insisted that he’s moving well and as healthy as he can be. However, his errancy at Maryland is giving many pause.

For the first time in this rivalry, both running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards are fully healthy. Neither has looked the part they played a year ago, and that’s in part to an offensive line that hasn’t been quite as dominant. There have been struggles when teams load the box, and there have also been struggles in pass protection of late. Ohio State’s edges are more of the power variety than speed (like Penn State’s Chop Robinson) but the Buckeyes are stout inside as well. The linebackers are good but not elite, so it will be incumbent for the Michigan O-line to get to the second level.

The secondary is also much improved since last year, and Ohio State has only given up one play over 40 yards all season (by contrast, the Michigan defense has given up five). A big mismatch here are the Wolverines’ tight ends duo, but with OSU’s stoutness in the red zone, the maize and blue will need to make long drives and finish if they’re to come out on the other side with a win.

By the numbers

NEXT: Ohio state offense vs. Michigan defense

Ohio State offense vs. Michigan defense

Photo: Isaiah Hole

Ohio State’s offense often takes awhile to get going, though that hasn’t been the case in some games. But the Buckeyes certainly look to get a now-healthy TreVeyon Henderson running so that quarterback Kyle McCord has less pressure and can get the ball downfield, particularly to wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

Michigan will need a strong plan of attack against the run game and Harrison in particular. McCord has decent stats, but according to PFF, he’s the worst quarterback in the conference when he’s under pressure. The key will be limiting Henderson while providing decent coverage, not only on Henderson, but WRs Emeka Egbuka, Julian Fleming, and Carnell Tate, as well as tight end Cade Stover. The Buckeyes love using Xavier Johnson on gadget plays, particularly sweeps, but they also occasionally use Harrison in such a fashion as well.

The plan for Michigan, should it be able to slow Henderson will be to tee off on the OSU offensive line. Center Carson Hinzman and tackles Josh Fryar and Josh Simmons have struggled mightily at times, particularly in pass protection. McCord is not nearly a mobile quarterback, but he can scramble forward for first downs. He does not throw particularly well on the run, but with his receivers, he just has to put it in their vicinity. The likely biggest mismatch in this game is the Michigan defensive front against the Ohio State offensive line, but one little mistake and the Wolverines could be looking at the backside of a number of white jerseys on Saturday.

Back to Henderson, he’s playing quite well now that he’s healthy, but we aren’t really sure what that will look like once he goes up against a line of Michigan’s caliber. Henderson was out for the Penn State game, and the Buckeyes relied on Miyan Williams (out for the season) and Chip Trayanum (who had a good game against the maize and blue last year). Henderson is mostly a one-cut back, but he’s a home-run hitter, so keeping him in check is likely priority No. 1 which opens up No. 2: keeping McCord from being in favorable down-and-distance situations, allowing Michigan to tee off a bit.

By the numbers

NEXT: keys to the game, bold predictions, final score prediction

Keys to the game

Photo: Isaiah Hole

As earlier stated, the biggest mismatch in our eyes is the Michigan defensive front against the Ohio State offensive line. But if the Wolverines struggle to tackle TreVeyon Henderson, then all bets are off. Ultimately, if Michigan does the majority of the following, it will win on Saturday:

• Limit TreVeyon Henderson

• Keep Marvin Harrison Jr. in check

• Get pressure on Kyle McCord

• Utilize the tight ends in the passing game

• Run play action

• Extend plays with J.J. McCarthy’s legs, both in the passing game and in the run game

• Show creativity and balance in playcalling

• Run the football effectively and wear down the OSU front

• Get to a two-score lead early and force Ryan Day to become one-dimensional

• Score touchdowns, not field goals

• Limit Ohio State to field goal attempts

• Win the turnover battle

Five bold predictions

1. The Wolverines are plus-two in the turnover battle. Michigan is decidedly better at forcing turnovers, and from what we’ve seen, Ohio State has more been the benefactor of bad plays whereas Michigan has made plays.

2. J.J. McCarthy throws for three touchdowns. Though the Ohio State defense is seemingly looking better, that was also the case last year. And yet the Michigan offense really shined when it mattered. McCarthy is a gamer and shows up bigger in most big games. Even against TCU, though McCarthy threw two picks, he still managed to throw for over 300 yards and battled back.

3. Michigan holds the OSU rushing game to about 100 yards. Henderson will have some good runs, but if the Wolverines can get on the board early, Ryan Day, though less impatient than before, will quickly switch to a different strategy and pass the ball. That may work for a spell, but the Michigan defense is overall better than others the Buckeyes have faced, and this will likely be the focal point of the defensive strategy.

4. The Wolverines get five sacks on Kyle McCord. McCord is not very mobile, and once Ohio State decides to start passing with frequency, the Michigan front will create pressure and get home. Again, we don’t think much of the OSU O-line, though certainly they could step up for this game. The Michigan front, however, has been consistent, even in adverse moments.

5. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards both bust out big plays. Perhaps it won’t be on the same level as either of the past two years, but both seem to play better in bigger games. OSU has little experience with either being healthy, and Edwards can finally be active in the pass game — something we’ve weirdly only seen sparingly this season.

Final prediction

Michigan has, at least, a slight lead in nearly every statistical category, including ones not included here, like time of possession and turnover ratio. With this being a home game, the Wolverines will need the fans to be raucous and help create false starts for the OSU offense to keep the scarlet and gray from staying on-schedule. J.J. McCarthy will need to play, perhaps not his best game, but a much better one than we’ve seen in the month of November. If he plays at a Purdue baseline and Michigan can run the ball, that should be enough. But if Michigan becomes one-dimensional, there’s a chance, but the defense would have to accomplish likely all of the above in order to win in that case.

Make no mistake, Michigan is the best team that Ohio State has played, and while the OSU offense is better than its Penn State counterpart, the Penn State defense is likely better (by a smidge) than what the Buckeyes offer on that front. Still, the Ohio State offense is much more dangerous, even though its been held to under 25 points four times this season. The Wolverines have played most of the common opponents the teams have had better and on the road, with Maryland perhaps being the exception — though Michigan had jumped out to a 23-3 lead while OSU struggled until late in the third quarter against the Terps at home.

Michigan is the better team in theory, but a bad game plan or a bad game in general could upend things. Not having Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines is a huge disadvantage for the Wolverines, but they managed to win at Penn State despite the same circumstances, and it was more dramatic as it appeared he’d be able to coach before finding out there’d be no temporary restraining order ruling about an hour before the game.

One former college football assistant coach who’s watched both teams told us that Michigan should win and it won’t be close. We think it will be — for the most part. But the result remains the same.

Michigan 27, Ohio State 16

Story originally appeared on Wolverines Wire