Peterson: Iowa State's basketball NET ranking meets reality once Big 12 play starts
AMES − Say what you want about college basketball’s NET rankings, an analytical tool the NCAA Tournament’s selection committee uses to pick and seed teams for the annual extravaganza that hopefully returns to Des Moines’ Wells Fargo Arena within a couple years.
Say what you want about teams, like Iowa State, holding a lofty Basketball Power Index ranking despite beating only four opponents with winning records. It’s the system, or at least part of a selection system, that cannot be overlooked when compiling an NCAA Tournament-conducive schedule.
I’ve heard and read plenty of criticism regarding the Cyclones’ 11-2 record, during these days before metrics meet reality in Saturday's Big 12 Conference opener at Oklahoma. Ridiculous. Unfair. Not a true guide of who’s good and who’s not. It’s all been out there – about many programs’ non-conference schedules.
Iowa State can take a few steps toward calming some of that narrative by winning Saturday’s game, the first of 18 in the most competitive college basketball conference in the country.
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Then it’s at Hilton Coliseum on Jan. 9 against Houston, then a Hilton game on Jan. 13 against Oklahoma State and then . . . you get the picture.
Analytical and computer data aside, the Big 12 boasts six teams in the AP and coaches’ ratings – Kansas, Houston, Oklahoma, BYU, Baylor and Texas. Kansas and Houston are consensus No. 2 and 3, after top-ranked Purdue from the Big Ten.
Iowa State faces four of those six in January.
Game on – both on the court and in the metrics, because Iowa State’s goal (which always will be the goal) is to reach the NCAA Tournament.
“Ten or so of the top 15 teams in the country, in terms of strength of schedule last year, were in our league," coach T.J. Otzelberger said during the Marshalltown stop of the Cyclones Tailgate Tour back in May. “We'll always play a competitive schedule and do what we need to do to put ourselves in the best position to, hopefully, go to the NCAA Tournament.”
If that means soundly and efficiently beating seven teams that were 209th or worse on the KenPom ratings, which Iowa State did during this non-conference season, then so be it. Remember, the Cyclones annually play in a high-end Thanksgiving tournament, face Iowa, and play someone in the Big 12-SEC Challenge.
Bottom line: Win the games you’re supposed to win
In this instance, that meant beating Quad-2 VCU and losing against Q-2 Virginia Tech and Q-1 Texas A&M in ESPN’s tournament at Disney World. It meant beating the Quad-2 Hawkeyes in Ames and winning at Q-4 DePaul.
“What you do in the non-conference – it’s unique to each school,” said Iowa State athletics director Jamie Pollard, in his fifth and final year on the prestigious NCAA Tournament selection committee. “There’s a different formula. If you’re trying to be a No. 1 seed, (or) if you’re trying just to make the NCAA Tournament, there’s different ways to get there.
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“And depending on what conference you’re in – our league schedule is just so challenging, that you have to ask yourself where do you think you’re going to fit in our league?"
Look at last season, when the selection committee determined that 18-15 Oklahoma State had too few Quad-1 wins, and not enough quality non-conference victories to be among the tournament’s 68 teams. The Cowboys’ resume included 12 wins against non-Quad-1 opponents – but a loss at home against Southern Illinois, in which the Cowboys blew a 13-point lead, stood out like a badly missed breakaway dunk. Additionally, coach Mike Boynton’s team lost a double-digit lead and a game against UCF.
“When you look at their resume, they had 18 opportunities in the Quad-1, and they won only six," last season’s tournament chairman Chris Reynolds told reporters. "They had opportunities in the non-conference to win some games to enhance their resume and they fell short."
West Virginia, which went just 7-11 in the Big 12 last season and 19-14 overall, made the 2023 field after winning 13 times against non-Quad-1 opponents.
Sometimes the difference between being one of the final teams selected for the NCAA Tournament, and the No. 1 seed in the NIT, can be that close.
“In our league, you probably have to go 8-10 to get to the NCAA Tournament,” Pollard continued. “If you go 8-10, you probably need to win 11 or 12 non-conference games. If you go 7-11 (in the Big 12), then you probably can’t lose any non-conference games.”
It’s not just about winning, it’s about how you win
“In our particular case, we play Iowa, we play the Big East-Big 12 Battle, and we play three teams (in a holiday tournament),” Pollard said. “That’s five of our 13 non-conference games, so the other eight – you can’t afford to play anybody else.”
Furthermore. . .
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“It’s also what you do in those games,” Pollard added. “The NET isn’t about who you necessarily play, it’s how you played them. Why our NET is high this year, is we’re fifth in the country in defensive efficiency, and we’re 40th in the country in offensive efficiency.”
I interviewed Pollard after the Cyclones’ victory against New Hampshire. After that victory, they’re third nationally in defensive efficiency, and 44th on the offensive end. They’ve beaten eight non-conference opponents by 25 points or more.
“The NET, the KenPom, the BPI, the KPI – all are metrics that get used by the committee,” Pollard said. “All reward teams for being more efficient defensively and offensively. That’s what we’ve done.”
Confused? Here’s your refresher course on terms and acronyms the NCAA uses straight from the NCAA website:
NET: Looks at game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. (Iowa State was No. 8 on Jan. 3).
BPI: According to the NCAA, College Basketball’s Power Index, invented by ESPN, is a statistic that measures how far above or below average every team is, and projects how well the team will do going forward. (Iowa State was No. 4 on Jan. 3)
KPI: The formula uses the opponent’s winning percentage, the opponent’s strength of schedule, scoring margin, pace of game, location, and the opponent’s KPI ranking. (Iowa State was No. 17 on Jan. 3).
KenPom: Adjusts production based on tempo and the quality of the opponent. (Iowa State was No. 17 on Jan. 3).
Offensive efficiency: Points scored per 100 offensive possessions. (Iowa State was No. 44 on Jan. 3).
Defensive efficiency: Points allowed per 100 defensive possessions. (Iowa State was No. 3 on Jan. 3).
Quad-1, 2, 3 and 4: There are four quadrants, which are outlined below along with the NET rankings that apply for each location and quadrant:
Quadrant 1: Home win vs. NET 1-30; Neutral court 1-50; Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home win vs. NET 31-75; Neutral court 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home win vs. NET 76-160; Neutral court 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home win vs. NET 161-357; Neutral court 201-357; Away 241-357
You’re free to form opinions about the Cyclones’ home non-conference schedule. There’s no disputing, however, the difficulty of the journey on which Iowa State is about to embark in Big 12 play.
Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson is in his 52nd year writing sports for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, on X @RandyPete, and at DesMoinesRegister.com/CyclonesTexts
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Peterson: Looking at Iowa State basketball's road to NCAA Tournament
