Penn State vs. Michigan State: The tale of the tape for the regular-season finale
It is safe to say Penn State and Michigan State have had much different seasons. But in the end, with one final game to play, the Nittany Lions and Spartans appear to be on a pretty level playing field.
So let’s go strictly by the numbers and break some key comparisons down for you. We took a look at the starting quarterbacks, leading rushers, and leading receivers for each team, and then compared a few offensive vs. defensive numbers for the teams. In the end, is there one clear winner or will this be as tight as some expect it to be?
Sean Clifford vs. Payton Thorne
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Breaking down the quarterback matchup.
Clifford | vs | Johnson |
6-2 | Ht | 6-2 |
219 | Wt | 210 |
Senior | Class | Sophomore |
224 | Comp | 187 |
362 | Att | 309 |
61.9 | Comp % | 60.5 |
2,599 | Yards | 2,611 |
7.2 | YPA | 8.4 |
17-6 | TD-INT | 22-8 |
Edge: Payton Thorne
Strictly statistically speaking, Michigan State’s starting quarterback has turned in the better season between the two coming into the weekend. Thorne has a higher touchdown total, although two more interceptions thrown. Thorne has a slightly lower completion percentage than Sean Clifford, but he has also thrown for more yardage on fewer attempts and completions.
Of course, Clifford should be expected to have a good game in the box score as he will be passing against the nation’s worst pass defense. Michigan State ranks 130th out of 130 FBS teams against the pass. But we’ll circle back to this one in a bit.
Keyvone Lee vs. Kenneth Walker III
Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s dig into a bloodbath here and compare the leading rushers for Penn State and Michigan State. This won’t be pretty for the Nittany Lions.
Lee | vs | Walker III |
6-0 | Ht | 5-10 |
239 | Wt | 210 |
Sophomore | Class | Junior |
89 | Att | 233 |
416 | Yards | 1,498 |
4.67 | YPC | 6.43 |
2 | TDs | 17 |
0 | 100-yard games | 7 |
Edge: Kenneth Walker III
Penn State has struggled mightily all season on the ground, and that likely isn’t about to change with one final game to play in the regular season. Keyvone Lee has shown some glimpses of a good running game developing, but Penn State is still without a 100-yard game from any player on the roster, one that included three Doak Walker Award watch list players at the start of the season.
Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker III was firmly in the Heisman Trophy conversation until Ohio State derailed that hype last week. But the combination of one of the top running backs going up against a mediocre at best rushing defense gives the Spartans a decided advantage when it comes to comparing running games this weekend.
Jahan Dotson vs. Jayden Reed
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Breaking down the leading receivers for each team.
Dotson | vs | Reed |
5-11 | Ht | 6-0 |
184 | Wt | 185 |
Senior | Class | Junior |
11 | Games | 11 |
83 | Rec | 47 |
1,045 | Yards | 857 |
12.59 | YPR | 18.23 |
10 | TDs | 7 |
Slight Edge: Dotson
Penn State’s Jahan Dotson is among the best receivers in the Big Ten. Even though he didn’t make the finalist cut for the Biletnikoff Award, Dotson should be able to show once again just how valuable he is to the Penn State offense. Count on him making some big plays, even if it takes a little bit of time to find a way to get him involved. Dotson is too good to be contained for long stretches of time, and the Michigan State defense has struggled against some of the best receivers in the Big Ten in recent weeks.
When Penn State has the ball
Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
Ranking Comparison (FBS Ranking)
Penn State vs. Michigan State
Passing Offense | 270.9 (25th) | 339.9 (130th) | Passing Defense |
Rushing Offense | 110.73 (116th) | 122.36 (25th) | Rushing Defense |
Total Offense | 381.6 (83rd) | 462.3 (120th) | Total Defense |
Scoring Offense | 26.2 (80th) | 25.5 (61st) | Scoring Defense |
When Michigan State has the ball
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Ranking Comparison (FBS Ranking)
Michigan State vs. Penn State
Passing Offense | 242.6 (58th) | 202.9 (30th) | Passing Defense |
Rushing Offense | 185.82 (43rd) | 133.3 (35th) | Rushing Defense |
Total Offense | 381.6 (83rd) | 335.9 (28th) | Total Defense |
Scoring Offense | 32.1 (41st) | 15.5 (4th) | Scoring Defense |
Who gets the edge?
Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports
When it comes down to the numbers, it looks as though Penn State has the inside edge in this matchup. Michigan State got a narrow edge in the quarterback comparison, but a look at the team stats suggests Penn State’s Seans Clifford could be in for the more productive afternoon in the box score. Michigan State’s only clear advantage appears to be at running back, with a stud like Kenneth Walker III expected to have a nice rebound after a tough outing against the Buckeyes.
All things considered, this does appear to be a pretty close matchup, and the line movement throughout the week has backed that up. But, of course, games are won on the football field and not on paper. We will see if the Nittany Lions can use some of these numbers to their advantage on the field on Saturday afternoon in East Lansing.
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