Penalty nosedive among 3 keys to Cowboys victory over Bucs
As bad as last Sunday’s loss against the Washington Commanders looked, the team came away healthy and the result had zero impact on the overall standings for the Dallas Cowboys. Both the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers won their respective games in Week 18, so Dallas was destined to play Tampa Bay regardless. The Buccaneers lost their season finale as well, resting their starters for most of the game and insuring quarterback Tom Brady the first losing season of his career.
Neither of these teams are the same as they were in their Week 1 matchup. Tampa Bay, for a multitude of reasons, doesn’t have one of the best defensive units in football any longer, the Cowboys have Michael Gallup and T.Y. Hilton at receiver instead of Dennis Houston, and Dallas is down two starting cornerbacks in Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown.
The keys to victory in Week 1 mainly focused on both offensive lines, whether it was running the football for the Cowboys, or handling Micah Parsons for the Buccaneers, but is that still the case for their playoff matchup? Here are the keys to the Cowboys living to play another week this season with a win over Tampa Bay.
Don’t beat themselves
Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
This was a signature of Tom Brady’s old team, the New England Patriots. Make the other team do the work to win the game, don’t help them with game-changing plays that set the team back while propelling the opponent forward.
Penalties have normally hurt Dallas; it was the offseason focus of head coach Mike McCarthy and for the first part of the year it was still a problem. Over the five previous games, before they faced the Washington Commanders, the Cowboys were only called for three penalties per contest. In the first 11 games though, they averaged 7.5 penalties a game.
Drive-killing penalties, or a call that takes away a turnover, could turn this game on its head.
Then there are the turnovers themselves. Quarterback Dak Prescott is tied for the league lead in turnovers even though he has played less games than the man he is tied with, Davis Mills. Prescott has thrown an interception in seven straight games and about half of them were just bad reads by the QB. Just last week, the Pick-6 to Kendall Fuller was simply a bad play by Prescott. He has talked about it for a month and a half, but those plays must stop.
The other half of the interceptions thrown by Prescott aren’t about the QB at all. Whether it is pass catchers running the correct route, the offensive line keeping Prescott from getting hit while throwing the ball, or just catching the football when it hits you in the hands, the players around the QB must do their job as well.
The turnover battle is a key in nearly every game, but with how the Cowboys offense has been humming along so far except the turnovers, if Dallas wins the turnover battle, and doesn’t have momentum killing penalties, it will be hard for the Buccaneers to stop them in this matchup.
Win the battle in the redzone
After the Cowboys failed to reach the redzone in their Week 1 loss was truncated by Dak Prescott missing the next five games with a thumb injury, not many would’ve believed this offense would go on to lead the league in red-zone touchdown percentage. They ended the season over 70% and they will need to avoid settling for field goals against Tom Brady.
Allowing Brady to stay close in a playoff game by settling for three points instead of seven is devastating. The Tampa Bay defense was only middle of the pact in red-zone stops as well, so the Cowboys should have an advantage, making it that much more important.
On the other side, the Dallas defense held the Buccaneers to only one touchdown in three red-zone attempts in Week 1, which was the only reason the game was competitive as long as it was. Tampa Bay ended the season in the bottom third of the league in red-zone touchdown percentage, while the Cowboys red-zone defense was top-10.
If the Buccaneers can take advantage of Dallas injuries in the secondary and flip the numbers, then the Cowboys will have real trouble Monday night. If the trends continue it could be the reason they finally defeat Brady and move on to another week of playoff football.
Parsons must be the most impactful non QB in the game
(Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Parsons was the defensive rookie of the year in 2021, and an All-Pro linebacker. He started this season by getting to Brady two times and was an unstoppable monster most of the season. Playing mostly edge in 2022 has worn Parsons down some it seems as he been able to finish as well as he did earlier in the year.
He has only accumulated 15 tackles and 1.5 sacks over the last six games of the season after having 50 tackles and 12 sacks in the first 11 games. If the Cowboys hope to eliminate the best QB of all time, they need Parsons to play like the best defender in the NFL.
Last week Malik Hooker was able to intercept Sam Howell in the end zone directly because of how Parsons impacted the play. He pushed the Commanders left tackle right into Howell’s lap so the QB couldn’t step into his throw.
Whether it is a play like that, a strip sack, or he picks off a pass himself, then Dallas should be able to handle the rest.
You can find Mike Crum on Twitter @cdpiglet or at Youtube on the Across the Cowboys Podcast.
