Patriots-Raiders preview: How Pats can end losing streak in Week 6
Patriots-Raiders preview: How Pats can end losing streak in Week 6 originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
FOXBORO -- Mac Jones has been up and down in Patriots practices over the course of the last couple of weeks. There are days when he throws the ball well. There are days when he does not. The first practice of the week ahead of the team's trip to Dallas, for instance, was a rough one for the third-year quarterback.
It's my understanding that things have looked better for Jones at practice this week. But before folks in the organization put much stock into those performances as a harbinger of what's to come, they want to see him do a couple of things when the reps matter that he hasn't been able to do of late: 1) play within the scheme and 2) don't turn it over.
There isn't overwhelming confidence that he'll be able to execute No. 1, which should lead to better odds of No. 2. There's almost resignation in some corners of the building when it comes to the quarterback position. It almost doesn't matter who's behind center, the thinking has gone, just don't put us in an impossible spot.
Not where you want to be at the most important position on the roster, but there's also an acknowledgement in the building that Jones is probably the best option for the team right now given what's behind him in the quarterback room. Bailey Zappe's summer was so rocky that he was released at the end of August. Will Grier is still too new to the system to be truly viable. And while there are some who'd like to see Malik Cunningham get more time to develop at quarterback, the vast majority of his work behind the scenes has been spent at receiver.
Jones is the guy. For now. And teammates continue to be encouraged by his work ethic, even over the course of the last couple weeks. "He practically lives (at the facility)," one veteran teammate said this week. "It's not a preparation thing with him."
His effort is not in doubt. The question, instead, is this: How much longer will Jones be preparing as the starter if things continue to trend in the direction they've been trending these last few weeks?
Matchup to win the first half
Mac Jones vs. Patrick Graham
The Patriots know they're being played a certain way. It's become readily apparent to players that teams don't fear New England's ability to hit on big plays down the field. The result? A lot of man-to-man coverage where defenses all but dare Jones to hit them vertically and outside the numbers.
Jones is second in the league in pass attempts against Cover 1 -- man-to-man with a free safety deep -- and he's fourth in attempts against all man-to-man coverages. That's remarkable given that the only three quarterbacks ahead of Jones in that category -- Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins -- rank in the top three in total pass attempts. Jones is 11th.
The good news for Jones and the Patriots? The Raiders are a porous man-to-man defense. According to Sports Info Solutions, they're allowing the fourth-highest quarterback rating when playing man (108.2) and the fourth-highest yards-per-attempt figure (9.9).
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The Patriots, in all likelihood, will want to try to run the football on Sunday. (More on that below.) But when forced to throw, if they get the same man-coverage looks they've been getting every week, they may actually have a chance to hit on a few plays down the field against Las Vegas.
On the other hand, if Jones continues to turn the football over against man-to-man, this game could get out of hand quickly for the Patriots. And they have no real recourse to make a comeback because of their lack of explosive playmaking ability. In some ways, because their starts have been so devastatingly bad this season, the "Matchup to Win the First Half" could effectively be the "Matchup that Determines the Outcome."
Matchup that will surprise you
Josh McDaniels vs. Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick
With Christian Gonzalez out, the Raiders have an obvious advantage over the Patriots for the second straight season: Who, exactly, is going to cover Davante Adams?
Those duties were left up to diminutive rookie corner Marcus Jones for large chunks of last year's meeting. This year? It could be up to newly re-acquired corner J.C. Jackson, who was eased back into the mix last week in his first game back with the Patriots.
Whoever sees Adams primarily, you can assume, will have some help over the top. While the Patriots defense knows it needs to do more in order to help them win games -- they've forced just two turnovers in five games -- they remain one of the best defenses in football. Even after playing games against some of the top offenses in the league (Philadelphia, Miami, Dallas), they remain fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed and fifth in success rate allowed.
How they perform against a turnover-prone Jimmy Garoppolo (NFL-leading seven picks) and Josh McDaniels -- even without their top cornerback and top pass-rusher Matthew Judon -- might surprise you.
Matchup that will bring you joy
Ja'Whaun Bentley vs. Josh Jacobs
The plan defenses have laid out for Josh Jacobs week after week has been relatively similar: Stack the box, take away the run, and force Garoppolo to execute.
According to Next Gen Stats, among backs with at least 40 attempts, Jacobs faces the eighth-highest rate of eight-man boxes from opposing defenses. He averages just 2.9 yards per carry overall, and out of 42 running backs with at least 10 carries against loaded boxes (eight defenders or more), he ranks 40th in yards per carry (1.8).
The Patriots should pursue a similar plan, and if the Raiders opt to give it to Jacobs anyway, then expect Ja'Whaun Bentley to be busy. Bentley had 11 tackles last week and is 28th in tackles among linebackers this season (36).
Matchup that will take years off your life
Maxx Crosby is one of the most physically-gifted pass-rushers in football. His 6-foot-9 wingspan seems to swallow up opposing tackles on a regular basis, and his motor is unrelenting. He's the fourth-highest graded edge defender this season, per Pro Football Focus, behind only Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett and TJ Watt. He's second in the league in pressures (34), behind only Aidan Hutchinson.
Unfortunately for Vederian Lowe, Crosby is also most comfortable when rushing off the offensive right. According to PFF, 82 percent of his rushes come off that side of the line of scrimmage, so Bill O'Brien will have to have some kind of plan to help Lowe in obvious passing situations.
Will Rhamondre Stevenson or Ezekiel Elliott be used as chippers at the line? Will Hunter Henry be asked to delay getting into routes so extra attention can be paid to the one game-wrecker on the defensive side of the ball for Vegas?
No easy answers. Nightmare matchup this week for the Patriots.
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Patriots run game vs. Raiders defense
We covered this matchup at length earlier this week. You can get all the nitty gritty details -- why this is a good week to try to run the ball, what specific kinds of runs the Patriots should rely on, and how exactly success with those runs could improve their anemic passing game -- right here.
If the Patriots can't run the ball this week? Hard to know where Bill Belichick and Bill O'Brien would turn next to try to salvage their season.
