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Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady: Comparing QBs' Super Bowl wins, NFL MVPs, stats and more

craig meyer, usa today network
·6 min read

Since his first full season as a starter in 2018, Patrick Mahomes has established himself as the best quarterback in the NFL.

Over those six seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs star has led his team to two Super Bowls while winning two NFL MVPs and two Super Bowl MVPs. In Mahomes’ six seasons as a starter, the Chiefs have gone 75-24 in the regular season and advanced to at least the AFC championship game every year.

Those accomplishments have separated him from any of his contemporaries, even the decorated likes of Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers, who are either already multi-time MVP winners or, in Jackson’s case, will be in the coming days.

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Given that, comparisons for Mahomes have to stretch into the sport’s past. In those discussions, one particular name is unavoidable: Tom Brady.

The former Michigan football, New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers star is widely considered the greatest winner in the sport’s history. He not only has won more Super Bowls by himself than any NFL franchise, but also turned a historically moribund, team located been a relative football wasteland, into the most sustained dynasty the NFL has ever seen. While other passers were arguably more talented than Brady — Dan Marino, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning come to mind — nobody has won at the same rate as him.

Following the Chiefs’ victory against the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens in the AFC championship game, which sent Mahomes to his fourth Super Bowl, Mahomes-Brady debates have ignited. At just 28 years old, is Mahomes already better than Brady? Or, at the very least, is he on pace to surpass him in several key statistics?

Mahomes, for his part, downplayed the comparison.

“I’m not even close halfway,” he said during a Monday news conference. “I haven’t put a lot of thought into it. Your goal is to be the best player that you can be. I know I’m blessed with a lot of great players around me. Right now, I’m doing whatever I can to beat a great 49ers team and try to get that third ring. You can ask me that question in like 15 years and I’ll see if I can get close to seven.”

But how does Mahomes stack up against Brady in the kinds of numbers that help determine the greatest quarterback of all-time?

Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady Super Bowls

  • Mahomes: 2

  • Brady: 7

The number that Mahomes referenced in his comment earlier this week is increasingly how the game’s top quarterbacks are measured: Above all else, how many Super Bowls have you won?

Indeed, Mahomes does have some work to do to catch up with Brady in that department. No other quarterback is within three Super Bowls of Brady, with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana both at four. A win on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers would put Mahomes in a tie with Troy Aikman for fourth on that list.

A victory in the 2024 Super Bowl would also keep Mahomes on pace with Brady, who won three Super Bowls in his first seven NFL seasons.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady Super Bowl appearances

  • Mahomes: 4

  • Brady: 9

Brady won eight AFC championships and one NFC championship while posting a 7-2 mark in the Super Bowl. Mahomes is 2-1 in the Super Bowl, with his lone loss coming in 2021 while playing behind a porous and patchwork offensive line against Brady and the Buccaneers.

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Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady NFL MVPs

  • Mahomes: 2

  • Brady: 3

Mahomes and Brady are two of the 10 players who have won multiple MVPs (a group that’s likely to soon stretch to 11 with Jackson joining the club).

Mahomes in 2023 turned in arguably the worst statistical season of his career, with a career-low 27 touchdowns and a career-high 14 interceptions in the regular season while orchestrating an offensive decidedly short on weapons, with an aging Travis Kelce and an underwhelming group of wide receivers.

But there’s still plenty of time for Mahomes to match and surpass Brady, who won his third and final MVP at 40 years old.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady playoff wins

  • Mahomes: 14

  • Brady: 35

For as large as the gap between them currently is, this is another category in which Mahomes could ostensibly get past Brady.

Mahomes is averaging two playoff wins per season, which jumps to 2.3 when his rookie season — in which he was a backup to Alex Smith — is removed from consideration. Brady averaged 1.5 playoff wins per season though, without adding his rookie season (in which he sat behind Drew Bledsoe) and the 2008 season (which he missed almost the entirety of with a knee injury) that number improves to 1.7.

Mahomes could also have more opportunities to pick up victories than Brady did. For all but the final three years of Brady’s 23-year career, the NFL playoffs afforded first-round byes to the top two teams from each conference. In 13 years, the Patriots received a bye, which got them a step closer to the Super Bowl but denied them an opportunity to pick up an additional playoff win.

Starting with the 2021 playoffs, the NFL added a third wild-card team to each conference, meaning only one team from the AFC and one from the NFC received a bye. So while the Chiefs have been one of the AFC’s top teams for Mahomes’ whole career, the odds of avoiding a first-round playoff game have decreased.

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Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady playoff win percentage

  • Mahomes: 14-3 (82.4%)

  • Brady: 35-13 (72.9%)

Though he’s working with a smaller sample size, Mahomes has Brady beat in this area. Interestingly, though, two of Mahomes’ three playoff losses have come against teams quarterbacked by Brady.

Patrick Mahomes head-to-head record vs. Tom Brady

Mahomes went 3-3 in his six career starts against Brady, going 1-2 against him while he was on the Patriots and 2-1 against him during his final seasons in Tampa Bay. In the playoffs, however, Mahomes was 0-2 against Brady, losing to him in the AFC championship game in 2019 and in the Super Bowl in 2021.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady career touchdown passes

  • Mahomes: 219

  • Brady: 649

This figure takes into account only the regular season. Brady is the NFL’s all-time leader in the category, with 78 more than the next-closest player, Drew Brees. Mahomes, however, is averaging 31.3 touchdown passes per season, more than Brady’s 28.2. At this rate, he just has to make sure he plays until he’s into his early 40s. Simple enough, right?

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady: Comparing QBs ahead of Super Bowl 2024