Packers vs. Rams: 5 things to watch and a prediction

The top-seeded Green Bay Packers (13-3) will welcome the sixth-seeded Los Angeles Rams (10-6) to Lambeau Field for the NFC Divisional Round on Saturday. The winner will advance to play either the New Orleans Saints or Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game.

As the No. 1 seed, the Packers enjoyed a first-round bye last week. The Rams upset the third-seeded Seattle Seahawks on the road in the NFC Wild Card Round, although both Aaron Donald (rib) and Cooper Kupp (knee) were injured during the victory.

The playoff game in Green Bay will feature eight All-Pros, including six first-team All-Pros, two quarterbacks with Super Bowl experience, and two of the brightest young coaches in the NFL. It also features Aaron Rodgers, who will likely win his third MVP, against Donald, who could win his third Defensive Player of the Year award.

Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Saturday’s playoff showdown at Lambeau Field:

Make Goff win

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The Rams have fed rookie running back Cam Akers at least 20 carries in four of the last five games, signaling an offensive philosophy designed to protect the quarterback. Akers has been great, averaging nearly 100 rushing yards and almost 120 total yards in the last six games. The Packers' plan looks relatively straightforward: keep Akers contained, prevent the Rams from establishing a play-action passing game and make Jared Goff consistently win from the pocket in obvious passing situations. When not using play-action this season, Goff averaged 6.8 yards per attempt and had a passer rating of 88.8, per Pro Football Focus. He also had a passer rating of 45.7 and threw seven interceptions (second-most) when under pressure. The Packers will likely their chances if they can stop the run and put the game in Goff's hands.

Turnover turning point

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The turnover battle is crucially important in just about every football game, but both the Packers and Rams will be particularly focused on winning it on Saturday. The majority of conceivable pathways to a Rams win will include a few takeaways, and potentially even a turnover creating a defensive score. The Rams had a defensive touchdown in three of their final five regular season games, and they added a game-changing pick-six of Russell Wilson last week. Can the Rams score enough points to win without a defensive score, or at least a couple turnovers creating short fields? The Packers had just 11 giveaways in 2020, the fewest in the NFL. They were 10-0 without a turnover, but just 3-3 with at least one, and seven of the 11 turnovers occurred in the three losses. The Packers lost the turnover battle in three games, and they lost all three games. Also, note that the Rams had at least one turnover in all 16 regular season games, but they avoided a giveaway in Seattle. Jared Goff has 36 turnovers, including 29 interceptions, over the last two seasons. More than likely, the Rams need a clean game on offense and a couple of takeaways to win.

X-factor: Aaron Jones

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The Rams defense has the tools to combat much of wha the Packers do in the passing game, making Aaron Jones an increasingly important player for the offense. Don't be surprised if the Packers attempt to stretch the Rams thin on the edges in the run game and also get Jones involved as a pass-catcher. There are potentially advantageous matchups to be had against the Rams inside linebackers. This is a great defense, especially up front and in the secondary, but few casual fans could name the Rams' two starting inside linebackers. Jones could be the focal point of how Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers attempt to attack the Rams. Getting No. 33 going early could be crucial.

Especially special

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The special teams on both sides are worth monitoring on Saturday. The Packers put together a disastrous season on special teams, but the Rams might have been worse, at least statistically speaking. They finished below the Packers in both Rick Gosselin's rankings and in special teams DVOA. Might one of these teams have a meltdown moment on special teams? Both have allowed blocked kicks and a return touchdown this season. The Packers need a clean game on special teams, especially in the return game, but this might also be an opportunity to create a big play. Also, both kickers have been great as of late; Mason Crosby didn't miss a field goal all season, and Matt Gay has made his last 13 field goals.

True test

The All-Pro matchup between Davante Adams and Jalen Ramsey is an obvious storyline, although it's worth wondering how often the two will be matched up one-on-one on Saturday. If Ramsey does get a chance to shadow Adams, another intriguing storyline should emerge. This is a true test of the Packers offense, both in execution behind Adams and the value of the scheme to help the quarterback. Matt LaFleur has created opened receivers and allowed Aaron Rodgers to play on time all season. The Rams know this offense, and they have depth and talent in the secondary behind Ramsey. Can the Packers continue to be deadly efficient in the passing game if Adams isn't major factor? This offense has passed every quiz and test presented this season. They've proven the progression of players and scheme was more than enough to negate any perceived lack of talent around the quarterback. Saturday is the final exam. The Packers must ace it.

Prediction: Packers 27, Rams 20 (11-5)

The Packers have too many built-in advantages entering this game. The gap at quarterback is massive. There will be fans at Lambeau Field, and by the time the sun sets in Green Bay, it'll be cold. The few of the Rams' key players are dealing with injuries. And I'm just not confident in the Rams being able to score enough points – without a big assist from the Packers – to win the game. If the Packers avoid big mistakes and play their game, they advance to the NFC title game. I think the Rams probably need a big game from Cam Akers, at least two takeaways from the defense and possibly a major special teams error to win. Each can happen, but I don't think the chances of everything going right for the Rams are high. The guess here is that the Packers start fast, survive a few big swings from the Rams mid-game, and then get a takeaway late to seal the deal.