Oregon vs. Oregon State: ‘Tale of the Tape’ for No. 9 Ducks vs. No. 22 Beavers
Stats and numbers will tell you a lot. However, when it comes to a rivalry game, you can usually throw a lot of that out of the window.
When Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers meet on Saturday afternoon in Corvallis, there is going to be a lot of vitriol. This is one of the most storied rivalry games in the history of college football, and while it may not have a name, it certainly will still be full of passion.
There’s a lot on the line for the Ducks, who are a win away from clinching a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. A loss doesn’t knock them out of the running, but it makes things tough. You know there’s nothing that Oregon State wants more than to rain on Oregon’s parade.
So when you look at the tape and get into the numbers, which team is expected to have an advantage? Let’s look at the tale of the tape for this heated rivalry.
Bo Nix vs. Ben Gulbranson
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Breaking down the quarterback matchup
Nix | vs | Gulbranson |
6-3 | Ht | 6-3 |
214 | Wt | 218 |
Senior | Class | Redshirt-Freshman |
244 | Comp | 103 |
338 | Att | 162 |
72.2 | Comp % | 63.6 |
3,061 | Yards | 2,225 |
9.1 | YPA | 7.6 |
25-6 (40 total TD) | TD-INT | 9-3 (11 total TD) |
Edge: Bo Nix
Not much of a contest in this matchup. Bo Nix is clearly the better quarterback, and Oregon State’s Ben Gulbranson fans can’t offer much of an argument. Although Nix is still expected to be rather limited with his ankle injury, I would still take his pocket presence and arm over Oregon State’s option.
Oregon RBs vs. Oregon State RBs
(Photo by Ali Gradischer/Getty Images)
Breaking down Oregon’s backfield and Oregon State’s backfield
Oregon | vs | OSU |
Irving | Martinez | |
Whittington | Fenwick | |
Dollars | Griffin | |
277 | Att | 304 |
1,721 | Yards | 1,671 |
6.2 | YPC | 5.5 |
8 | TDs | 12 |
3 | 100-yard games | 6 |
Edge: Toss Up
This one feels like an even split to me. While Oregon State may have the higher TD numbers and more 100-yard games — freshman Damien Martinez has had 5-straight such games — the Ducks do more with less, rushing for more yards on fewer carries. The rushing attack is the No. 1 component of the Beaver’s offense, while Oregon relies heavily on the pass, and also has a QB that is highly mobile. I think both teams feel great about their running game in this one.
Oregon Pass Catchers vs. Oregon State Pass Catchers
Breaking down the receiving corps
Oregon | vs | OSU |
Franklin | Harrison | |
Cota | Gould | |
Ferguson | Lindsey | |
Hutson | Boulden | |
178 | Target | 177 |
139 | Rec | 118 |
78.1 | Catch % | 66.7 |
1,813 | Yards | 1,517 |
13.1 | YPR | 12.9 |
13 | TDs | 11 |
Edge: Oregon
This edge honestly isn’t as big in favor of the Ducks as I expected it to be. With Oregon State largely employing a run-heavy scheme, the WR numbers, particularly from Tre’Shaun Harrison, were better than I expected. Still, I would rather go into a game with Troy Franklin and Kris Hutson as my leading receivers, all due respect.
When Oregon has the ball
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Ranking Comparison (FBS Ranking)
Oregon vs. Oregon State
Passing Offense | 288.3 (18th) | 219.3 (59th) | Passing Defense |
Rushing Offense | 222.9 (12th) | 111.4 (19th) | Rushing Defense |
Total Offense | 511.2 (3rd) | 330.6 (25th) | Total Defense |
Scoring Offense | 40.2 (4th) | 20.27 (27th) | Scoring Defense |
Points Per Play | 0.525 (11th) | 0.296 (21st) | Points Per Play |
When Oregon State has the ball
Ranking Comparison (FBS Ranking)
Oregon State vs. Oregon
Passing Offense | 213.2 (94th) | 278.8 (122nd) | Passing Defense |
Rushing Offense | 192.9 (33rd) | 112.5 (22nd) | Rushing Defense |
Total Offense | 406.1 (57th) | 391.4 (81st) | Total Defense |
Scoring Offense | 31.9 (44th) | 26.5 (69th) | Scoring Defense |
Points Per Play | 0.426 (39th) | 0.401 (78th) | Points Per Play |
Who has the edge?
(Photo by Ali Gradischer/Getty Images)
The Beavers are certainly a good football team, and they have a really good defense that is allowing just 12 points per game over the last five contests. However, on paper I think the Ducks have the edge here. What will make this one interesting is the health status of QB Bo Nix. He played last week against Utah and did well without his mobility, but it’s unclear how healthy he will be in this rivalry game. Should he be able to manage the game well and avoid mistakes on offense, I think the Ducks shouldn’t have a hard time winning, as long as the defense is even half as good as they were vs. Utah.
