Oregon vs. California: ‘Tale of the Tape’ for No. 6 Ducks vs. Golden Bears
Few teams in the nation are being talked about as much as the Oregon Ducks right now. After their dominant blowout win over the Utah Utes last week, many analysts and TV personalities are claiming that the Ducks not only are the best team in the Pac-12 and should be the favorite to win the conference title in Las Vegas but they should also be heavily considered as a threat to win the national championship.
Of course, there is a long road between here and there, and the Ducks have a lot of business to take care of before fans can start to consider all of that. It all starts this week with a return home for the game against Justin Wilcox and the California Golden Bears.
While thought of as a primarily defensive team over the past several year, the Golden Bears have one of the better offenses in the conference this year, averaging over 30 points per game. If the Ducks want to reach those championship heights, they will need to focus first on shutting down the Cal offensive attack.
Are they equipped to do so? Let’s take a look at the numbers in order to find out in this week’s edition of ‘Tale of the Tape:’
QB Bo Nix vs. QB Fernando Mendoza
Breaking down the quarterback matchup based on 2023 stats:
Nix | vs | Mendoza |
6-3 | Ht | 6-5 |
214 | Wt | 220 |
Senior | Class | Rs. Freshman |
206 | Comp | 56 |
263 | Att | 89 |
78.3 | Comp % | 62.9 |
2,337 | Yards | 648 |
8.9 | YPA | 7.1 |
21-1 (24 total TDs) | TD-INT | 6-3 (8 total TD) |
Edge: Oregon
Analysis: Much like we saw last week in the QB matchup between Bo Nix and Bryson Barnes, it’s not really close. Cal is another team that runs the ball a fair amount, and Mendoza has had to split time with others this season as the Golden Bears searched for their QB. Nix is by and far the best QB in this game, and it’s not particularly close.
Oregon RBs vs. California RBs
John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Breaking down Oregon’s backfield and Washington State’s backfield based on 2023 stats:
Oregon | vs | California |
Irving | Ott | |
James | Ifanse | |
Limar | Stredick | |
181 | Att | 237 |
1,326 | Yards | 1,318 |
7.3 | YPC | 5.6 |
17 | TDs | 17 |
4 | 100-yard games | 4 |
Edge: Oregon
Analysis: The California backfield is certainly loaded, and they have one of the best individual players in the conference with Jaydn Ott, but as a whole, I think we can pretty easily say that the Oregon running backs are more productive. The Ducks have more yards and far fewer attempts, a higher yards-per-carry average, and the same number of touchdowns as the Golden Bears’ backfield. In a very balanced offense, Bucky Irving and Jordan James are able to do more with less.
Oregon Pass Catchers vs. California Pass Catchers
Breaking down the receiving corps based on stats from 2023:
Oregon | vs | California |
Franklin | Hunter | |
Ferguson | Davis | |
Johnson | Grizzell | |
Holden | Endries | |
171 | Target | 175 |
132 | Rec | 110 |
77.2 | Catch % | 63.0 |
1,759 | Yards | 1,321 |
13.3 | YPR | 12.0 |
17 | TDs | 11 |
Edge: Oregon
Analysis: Another position battle where there is really no conversation as to which team has the better unit. While Cal has more passing attempts on the season, the Ducks’ completion percentage is a fair amount higher, as are their total yards, yards-per-catch, and overall touchdown rate. The Golden Bears certainly have a couple of nice pieces, but from top to bottom I think you feel pretty confident in taking the Ducks.
Oregon Defenders vs. California Defenders
Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports
Breaking down the top defenders based on stats from 2023:
Oregon (Tackles) | vs | California (Tackles) |
Johnson (41) | Elarms-Orr (72) | |
Bassa (35) | McMorris (49) | |
Stephens IV (30) | Sirmon (49) | |
Williams (45) | Woodson (46) | |
Total | Team | Stats |
27 (10th) | Sacks | 11 (114th) |
50 (41st) | TFL | 28 (129th) |
7 | INT | 7 |
9 (91st) | Turnovers | 15 (18th) |
33.6 (29th) | 3D% | 39.3 (75th) |
81.8 (60th) | RZ% | 94.4 (123rd) |
Edge: Oregon
Analysis: While the tackling numbers may be deceiving, look no further than the amount of sacks that the Ducks get compared to the Golden Bears, and how improved they are on tackles for loss. Also consider the fact that Oregon is giving up just 15 points per game, while Cal is giving up over 33 per game. The Golden Bears have a handful of really solid defenders, but at this point, the Ducks are a better and deeper group, undoubtedly.
When Oregon has the ball
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon | California | ||
Passing Offense | 316.4 (10th) | 261.4 (114th) | Passing Defense |
Rushing Offense | 215.0 (9th) | 153.6 (65th) | Rushing Defense |
Total Offense | 531.4 (2nd) | 405.0 (102nd) | Total Defense |
Scoring Offense | 45.5 (3rd) | 35.3 (117th) | Scoring Defense |
Yards Per Play | 7.4 (3rd) | 6.0 (105th) | Yards Per Play |
When California has the ball
Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
California | Oregon | ||
Passing Offense | 222.0 (72nd) | 208.0 (41st) | Passing Defense |
Rushing Offense | 200.5 (19th) | 95.6 (12th) | Rushing Defense |
Total Offense | 422.5 (45th) | 303.6 (16th) | Total Defense |
Scoring Offense | 32.2 (29th) | 15.62 (11th) | Scoring Defense |
Yards Per Play | 5.5 (60th) | 4.6 (16th) | Yards Per Play |
Advanced Stats Breakdown
CAL @ OREGON pic.twitter.com/5JrMwqf0Ul
— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 1, 2023
Who has the edge?
(Photo Courtesy of Ethan Landa)
Oregon Ducks
There’s a reason that the spread for this game is Oregon -24 points. Playing at home once again in front of an Autzen crowd that heavily favors the Ducks, it is going to be a tough environment for Justin Wilcox and the Golden Bears, especially considering the tension between the two after reports came out that Wilcox turned down the Oregon head coaching job a couple of years ago, paving the way for Dan Lanning to come in.
Oregon’s defense is leagues better than California’s, and the Ducks’ offense is better than the Golden Bears’, though that is where Cal’s strength lies. I don’t expect a close game here.
