Is Oregon a top-5 team in 2024? Predicting the preseason Top 25 for next season
While we continue to parse through the transfer portal, the lead up to the early signing period, and the upcoming bowl game for the Oregon Ducks, it’s been a great time to look forward at the next year and try to depict what the landscape might look like.
Thanks to conference realignment, the entire landscape will look drastically different a year from now, and it will culminate in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff at the end of the year. What we’re focused on is the Big Ten, where the group of Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA will head east and join a new conference.
On Wednesday, we projected what the top of the Big Ten Conference might look like, where the Oregon Ducks will likely be competing for a top spot in the power rankings once the preseason rolls around. But when we expand that view to the national rankings, are Dan Lanning and the Ducks expected to be in as favorable of a position?
It’s tough to definitively say while the transfer portal remains so active and top-ranked players continue to find new homes, but here are our early predictions for what the top 25 will look like going into the 2024 season:
Alabama Crimson Tide
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2023 Record: 12-1
2023 CFP Ranking: 4th
Analysis: Coming off of a College Football Playoff appearance with your Heisman-contending quarterback returning, it would not at all surprise me to see Alabama take the top spot going into 2024.
Michigan Wolverines
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
2023 Record: 13-0
2023 CFP Ranking: 1st
Analysis: Jim Harbaugh, J.J. McCarthy, and Blake Corum — if two of those three pieces return in 2024, then I think that Michigan will be near the top of the rankings, deservedly so.
Georgia Bulldogs
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
2023 Record: 12-1
2023 CFP Ranking: 6th
Analysis: We saw down the stretch in 2023 that Carson Beck was really coming into his own, and while Georgia was not as dominant as in years past, they are still playing at the top of the sport. I don’t expect that to change any time soon.
Texas Longhorns
Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
2023 Record: 12-1
2023 CFP Ranking: 3rd
Analysis: If Quinn Ewers does in fact return for another year, then Texas could be right back in the thick of the College Football Playoff race once again. It will be interesting to see how they navigate the new SEC schedule, but they definitely have the talent to succeed.
Oregon Ducks
Christopher Creveling-USA TODAY Sports
2023 Record: 11-2
2023 CFP Ranking: 8th
Analysis: It’s going to be hard to replace Bo Nix, but getting Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel on the roster was a huge win, and with the skill position players and a budding defense both improving, I think we could see Oregon crack the top 5 to start the season.
Ohio State Buckeyes
2023 Record: 11-1
2023 CFP Ranking: 7th
Analysis: We need to wait and see who Ohio State plugs into their QB spot after Kyle McCord transferred out this offseason, but the talent and coaching are good enough in Columbus to consider them a top-10 team going into the year, even with a lot of questions about the roster still left unanswered.
Utah Utes
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2023 Record: 8-4
2023 CFP Ranking: N/A
Analysis: Utah? This high on the list? Remember, Cam Rising is returning for one more year, and when healthy, he is among the best passers in the nation. The Utes also have one of the best coaches in the nation, and they should be able to benefit from a weaker Big 12 Conference that no longer has Texas and Oklahoma at the top.
Ole Miss Rebels
2023 Record: 10-2
2023 CFP Ranking: 11th
Analysis: Lane Kiffin has been able to keep the Rebels competing at a high level as of late, and if Jaxson Dart returns for another year, I think the ceiling is once again high for this team, especially considering how well they’ve used the transfer portal to bolster their roster.
Missouri Tigers
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2023 Record: 10-2
2023 CFP Ranking: 9th
Analysis: Missouri was really impressive in 2023, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. With Brady Cook, Cody Schrader, and Luther Burden leading the way on offense, I think we can expect another solid season from the Tigers.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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2023 Record: 9-3
2023 CFP Ranking: 16th
Analysis: The Sam Hartman experiment didn’t exactly work out for Notre Dame to the standards that fans were hoping for, so we’ll see if Riley Leonard can be any better. While the Fighting Irish have the talent to compete with anyone, there’s a sense that the offensive playcalling needs to improve before they can return to the highest level of the sport.
Oklahoma Sooners
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2023 Record: 10-2
2023 CFP Ranking: 12th
Analysis: The Jackson Arnold era is starting at Oklahoma with Dillon Gabriel transferring to Oregon, and with an explosive offense matched with a really solid defense, I think the Sooners have a high ceiling next year. What will be key is seeing how they can navigate a toughened-up SEC schedule.
LSU Tigers
2023 Record: 9-3
2023 CFP Ranking: 13th
Analysis: LSU doesn’t have Jayden Daniels to keep them afloat anymore, but that is a very talented roster that will now be led by Ben Gulbranson. If the defense can improve to even an average level, I think they have a shot at being pretty good.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
2023 Record: 10-2
2023 CFP Ranking: 10th
Analysis: We saw QB Drew Allar start to settle into his own near the end of the year for Penn State, so they might have a good chance at rising up near the top of the Big Ten rankings and be a national factor if that continues in 2024.
Arizona Wildcats
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2023 Record: 9-3
2023 CFP Ranking: 14th
Analysis: There may have been no hotter team in the nation at the end of the year than the Arizona Wildcats, who struck gold with redshirt freshman Noah Fifita under center. Credit to Jedd Fisch, he has turned this thing around quite well in Tucson, and he should be able to succeed quite well in the Big 12.
Florida State Seminoles
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2023 Record: 13-0
2023 CFP Ranking: 5th
Analysis: Losing a QB like Jordan Travis is hard, and I think we all want to see a bit more from Tate Rodemaker — or whatever transfer portal QB is brought in — before we start saying that the Seminoles will be playoff-bound again. However, that defense was absolutely elite in 2023, and should be very dominant once again.
Washington Huskies
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2023 Record: 13-0
2023 CFP Ranking: 2nd
Analysis: Yes, the Huskies went 13-0 and are in the College Football Playoff, but I have them ranked this low because they are losing so many of their key players. Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze are gone for sure, and there’s also a good chance that Jalen McMillan, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Dillon Johnson all leave as well. That’s a lot to lose and still be ranked as a top-10 team. I think at the end of the year Kalen DeBoer can get them back to that level of play, but we need to see it on the field first.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
2023 Record: 9-4
2023 CFP Ranking: 20th
Analysis: This team was carried by RB Ollie Gordon III in 2023, who ended the year as the No. 7 vote-getter in the Heisman Trophy race. He will once again need to have that type of impact for the Cowboys, mixed with a solid defense, and Oklahoma State can be pretty good once again.
Clemson Tigers
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2023 Record: 8-4
2023 CFP Ranking: 22nd
Analysis: If Cade Klubnik continues to improve, I think Clemson has a pretty good chance of being a player in the ACC once again, but after a mediocre 2023 season, the Tigers will need to see more from their QB in order to get back into the playoff conversation.
SMU Mustangs
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2023 Record: 11-2
2023 CFP Ranking: 24th
Analysis: SMU walked away with the AAC Championship in 2023, and they are coached well enough to be in the mix for one of the playoff spots in the newly expanded format, with QB Preston Stone leading the way.
Tennessee Volunteers
2023 Record: 8-4
2023 CFP Ranking: 21st
Analysis: The Joe Milton era is over at Tennessee, so bring on Nico Iamaleava Jr. and let’s see what the young QB can do. If the redshirt freshman is as good as we expected when coming out of high school, I think that Tennessee can be a pretty good team, but they need to prove it first.
Kansas State Wildcats
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2023 Record: 8-4
2023 CFP Ranking: 25th
Analysis: Chris Klieman has proven himself to be a very good coach at Kansas State, but the team will be turning to Avery Johnson after QB Will Howard announced his transfer this offseason. The ceiling is high, but as become a common theme among teams ranked near this level, we need to see it first.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
2023 Record: 10-3
2023 CFP Ranking: 17th
Analysis: Will Kirk Ferentz still be the coach? Will Iowa have any semblance of an offense? Those are a couple of answers that we need before projecting Iowa to be any sort of good in 2024, but with a defense as strong as theirs, you can put them in the top 25, at the very least.
Louisville Cardinals
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2023 Record: 10-3
2023 CFP Ranking: 15th
Analysis: The coaching job that Jeff Brohm did at Louisville in 2023 was impressive, getting them to the ACC Championship despite having a roster that could have used some help. We will see how they can improve via the portal this offseason, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals back in the mix.
Colorado Buffaloes
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2023 Record: 4-8
2023 CFP Ranking: N/A
Analysis: Does Colorado deserve to be ranked in the top 25 based on merit? Definitely not. Do I think we will still see them near the fringes just so networks like ESPN and FOX can promote them as a top team and continue to ride the Coach Prime Ratings Train? I wouldn’t be surprised. Deion Sanders is working to retool via the transfer portal, and he’s doing a good job of it so far. With a better offensive line, and a very talented QB in Shedeur Sanders, I could see Colorado being ranked to start the year, though I think it’s more of a hype thing than anything.
Kentucky Wildcats
2023 Record: 7-5
2023 CFP Ranking: N/A
Analysis: There have been few teams who have used the transfer portal as well as Kentucky so far this offseason to improve the roster, bringing in former 5-star QB Brock Vandergriff from Georgia, while also adding top WR prospects like Ja’Mori Maclin and Raymond Cottrell. The Wildcats also added Ohio State RB Chip Traynum. We’ll see if they can compete in the SEC, but I think they should be ranked inside the top 25 to start the year at the very least.
