What Ole Miss baseball must do in regular season's final week to make NCAA Tournament
OXFORD — Ole Miss baseball has a roster with more than one glaring flaw. The Rebels have made a habit of beating themselves in 2024, and, when they lose, they often lose ugly.
Perhaps those qualities will relegate them to another postseason spent watching from the sofa. But perhaps not.
Despite its problems, Ole Miss has also demonstrated a remarkable refusal to quit. The latest example for coach Mike Bianco's team came this weekend against then-No. 2 Texas A&M. After dropping a heartbreaker to close out a series at Auburn and losing in midweek action to Murray State in 15 innings, the Rebels (27-24, 11-16 SEC) fought back to secure a vital series win over the Aggies.
That they did so with Ethan Lege, arguably their best player this season, sidelined with a fractured thumb seems almost fitting. Presented with countless opportunities to fold like it did last season, Ole Miss keeps finding a way to stay in the postseason fight.
Now, the Rebels can see the finish line. With a visit to Southern Miss scheduled for Tuesday (6 p.m., ESPN+) before the Rebels head to LSU for a three-game series beginning Thursday, here's what Ole Miss needs to achieve this week to get back into the NCAA Tournament.
Ole Miss baseball NCAA Tournament projection
The SEC series at LSU will be the most important part of the Rebels' trip south. Since the SEC expanded to 14 teams in 2013, only once has a program qualified for the NCAA Tournament without winning at least 13 conference games – and that Alabama team played 29 SEC games, not 30.
That leaves the Rebels with a clear objective: Take two out of three from the Tigers, and give the committee a decision to make. It's been a struggle for LSU, the defending national champion, this season. The Tigers are 10-17 in the SEC, coming off a series loss at Alabama.
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In the modern SEC, teams that win 13 conference games are 5-for-12 when it comes to qualifying for a regional.
However, crucially for Ole Miss, the committee has not left out a 13-win SEC team that finished the season with a Rotary Power Index (RPI) in the top 29 since the conference's expansion. The Rebels enter the final week of SEC play ranked 24th in the RPI, mostly by virtue of playing the second-most difficult schedule in the country.
Going on the road against Southern Miss (RPI 32) and LSU (RPI 34), there is no chance that the Rebels fall out of the RPI's top 29 should they take two out of three from the Tigers – even if they lose to the Golden Eagles in Hattiesburg.
The SEC Tournament in Hoover, Alabama, offers another variable next week. But even if the Rebels suffer a bad outcome there, winning the series in Baton Rouge should put them in line with what historically has been required to make the NCAA Tournament.
David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.
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This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Ole Miss NCAA Tournament projection: What Rebels must do this week
