Numbers say the Bucs offense is below average; the standings disagree
TAMPA — From a distance, the transformation of the Bucs offense might look like one man’s personal crusade. An arbitrary decision by the head coach to cut back on the risky stuff, and stubbornly adhere to a run-at-all-costs philosophy.
A year after having an NFL-low number of rushes at 22.7 per game, the Bucs have kept the ball on the ground 29.2 times a game, which ranks among the league’s top 10. They also have taken fewer shots in the downfield passing game.
You could argue this is the brainchild of a defensive-minded coach with a conservative scoreboard approach.
I would argue it’s about survival.
You see, sometime late in Tom Brady’s second season in Tampa Bay, the Bucs lost their way on offense. They thought they were still a high-risk, high-reward, high-flying machine incapable of being slowed down. The truth is, the offensive line had grown weaker, the quarterback had grown older and the receiving corps had endured a noticeable loss of manpower.
The result? A nearly 40% reduction in points last season.
Bringing in Dave Canales to revamp the offense was not a kneejerk reaction but, rather, an acknowledgement by head coach Todd Bowles that philosophies had to evolve. And that included recognizing the current roster would go only as far as the defense could take it.
No more 38-31 shootouts. No more whipping passes around the field without concern for the clock, or the occasional stress on Tampa Bay’s defense. In 2020-21, thanks to Brady, the Bucs had a ridiculously impressive 12-4 record when opponents scored between 20 and 33 points against them. In the last two years, they are 1-6 in similar games.
The clear inference is the current offense can no longer overpower opponents, so it must work hand-in-hand with the defense to dictate the pace of the game. That means running the ball, controlling the clock, avoiding turnovers and managing field position.
“Honestly, just really appreciating through four games, the job these guys have done,” Canales said. “Baker (Mayfield), the whole group, the offensive line, finding a way to win games. Even if it’s not going all smoothly — I think that league-wide that’s pretty similar — but just finding a way to win in different situations was encouraging.”
Most fans understand this is not a revelation. Across the NFL, the numbers are fairly clear. Since 2021, teams have an .851 winning percentage when holding opponents to 18 points or fewer. The winning percentage drops to .309 when giving up 19 points or more.
Of course, 19 points is not a hard-and-fast dividing line. The percentages are obviously more dramatic with extremely low or extremely high scores.
But that 18- to 20-point range is where the Bucs defense needs to live. And the only way they can consistently pull that off is if the offense is not turning the ball over with interceptions, fumbles or excessive three-and-out drives.
Which is exactly what they have gotten from Mayfield and Co. They’re below average in scoring (21 points per game), passing yards (214.5 per game), rushing yards (87 per game) and red-zone touchdowns (50%), but are atop the NFC South with a 3-1 record. How have they done this? The offense is tied for sixth in the NFL in the lowest percentage of drives ending in turnovers (7.1%) and they have cut down on their three-and-outs from the same point last season.
That may look like a bare-minimum approach to scoring, but it’s quite savvy given the current roster construction.
The offense isn’t as dynamic as it was when Brady arrived — or even in Jameis Winston’s final seasons — but it’s leaps and bounds ahead of 2022.
“Going back to the attitude and style that we’re trying to create here, we’re not where we need to be,” Canales said. “As far as the mix and the style of things, I love what we’re doing.”
What has saved the Bucs, so far, is the seeming maturation of Mayfield at quarterback. For a guy on his fourth team in three years, it would be understandable if he was eager to resurrect his career with splashy plays. Instead, Mayfield, 28, has played within the keep-it-safe structure of the Bucs offense.
Among quarterbacks with at least 60 starts between 2018-22, his interception rate of 2.8 was the highest in the NFL. Yet through his first four games in Tampa Bay, he has cut that number down to 1.6, which puts him among the league’s top 10 passers.
“He’s played very smart. He’s run the offense very efficiently,” Bowles said. “I think he’s playing the quarterback position very well. We’re very pleased with him.”
This isn’t the ideal recipe for success. A weak early-season schedule has helped, and the Bucs need to know their margin for error going forward is slim. The roster will need to be upgraded in the coming years, and holding on to both Mayfield and receiver Mike Evans could be difficult with the salary cap.
Still, for now, this is a common-sense approach to winning. The Bucs aren’t going to overwhelm many teams, but they may have figured out a way to outlast them.
John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.
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