Now is perfect time to sell high on Marcus Stroman
Colin Henderson breaks down how good Mets' Marcus Stroman has been this season, but wonders if this is the right time to sell high.
Video Transcript
COLIN HENDERSON: Mets starter Marcus Stroman continued his strong season on Sunday, allowing one unearned run, while striking out seven across 6 and 2/3 innings against the Padres. The win improved his season record to 5-4, with a 2.4 ERA, 1.08 whip, and 59 strikeouts in 71 and a third innings.
Despite allowing four walks against the Padres, Stroman has done a good job overall of limiting free passes, as he's in the 83rd percentile in the league in walk percentage. He is also in the top 10% of the league in chase rate, as he's done a good job of getting hitters to swing outside the zone.
However a deeper dive into his metrics suggests that now may be a good time to sell high on the 30-year-old. He's in the bottom 25% of the league in hard hit percentage, expected batting average, and strikeout percentage, and is nothing more than average in expected slugging, whiff percentage, and expected ERA.
In fact, his expected ERA is 4.04, over a run and a half more than his current one. His expected batting average and expected slugging percentage are both currently at a career high mark. Stroman may be an example of a better real life pitcher than fantasy starter. And with his strong showing to date could fetch a nice price if dangled to other managers.
However those who believe in the righty can continue to expect a high floor, as Stroman should continue to eat innings and pick up wins on a good Mets team that is getting healthier. He's got at least six innings in his last six starts, with five of those being quality starts.