Notre Dame football: ESPN FPI Updates Projections for Remaining Games
We’ve sat here for two weeks and wondered a bit to ourselves and out loud how much you can really take from Notre Dame’s dominating wins over inferior competition.
There is one source that has certainly been impressed by Notre Dame through two games though, but it’s not a person.
No, it’s ESPN’s Football Power Index – the formula based equation that rates every major college football team. It then gives out their percentage based odds of several things, including all remaining games this season.
Through two weeks for Notre Dame, FPI has moved the Irish from 13th in the preseason to No. 6. They’ve also improved Notre Dame’s chances of winning in several big games.
Here are their latest numbers for the remainder of Notre Dame’s 2023 schedule:
Sept. 9 at North Carolina State
Current odds of Notre Dame victory: 78.4%
Odds on July 9: 71.6%
Sept. 16 vs. Central Michigan
Current odds of Notre Dame victory: 97.9%
Odds on July 9: 97.4%
Sept. 23 vs. Ohio State
Current odds of Notre Dame victory: 33.3%
Odds on July 9: 20.7%
Sept. 30 at Duke
Current odds of Notre Dame victory: 89.0%
Odds on July 9: 82.8%
Oct. 7 at Louisville
Current odds of Notre Dame victory: 80.8%
Odds on July 9: 78.8%
Oct. 14 vs. USC
Current odds of Notre Dame victory: 60.0%
Odds on July 9: 59.1%
Oct. 28 vs. Pitt
Current odds of Notre Dame victory: 83.0%
Odds on July 9: 85.4%
Nov. 4 at Clemson
Current odds of Notre Dame victory: 48.5%
Odds on July 9: 36.8%
Nov. 18 vs. Wake Forest
Current odds of Notre Dame victory: 92.3%
Odds on July 9: 88.9%
Nov. 25 at Stanford
Current odds of Notre Dame victory: 89.2%
Odds on July 9: 88.6%
Current Ranking
Notre Dame is currently ranked 6th in the ESPN FPI, up four spots from one week ago and seven spots since the start of the year.
Win-Loss Projection
ESPN FPI currently projects Notre Dame to finish the season 9.5-2.5. Before the year this model had the Irish projected to win 9.1 games. Essentially, this is another way of stating the numbers in the games above – Notre Dame has a better chance to win more games now than they did in the summer according to the model.
12-0?
FPI gives Notre Dame a 5.7% chance of winning their 10 remaining regular season games. That might not seem great but it’s the eighth best chances at winning out of any team in the country according to the model. It also gave Notre Dame just a 1.3% shot at an unbeaten season before the games kicked off.
Playoff Chances?
Notre Dame’s chances to make the College Football Playoff have gotten ever-slightly better since the start of the year. They now sit at 17.2% after starting the year at 15.8%. Those are the eighth best chances to make the CFP of any team nationally.
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