What Nick Foles means to the Chicago offense

The old adage tells us that a picture is worth a thousand words. In that case, my job here is almost close to completed, as two pictures will likely tell the story of why Matt Nagy made the move to Nick Foles, naming him the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears in the wake of benching Mitchell Trubisky, and Foles leading a spirited fourth quarter comeback against the Atlanta Falcons.

Despite Trubisky’s start to the season, where he led a comeback of his own in Week 1 against the Detroit Lions and guided the Bears to a good enough start in Week 2 to stave off the New York Giants, his position as the starting quarterback in Chicago never seemed solidified. That was illustrated yesterday when, after an ineffective two-plus quarters, Trubisky gave way to Foles off the bench. Prior to his benching, Trubisky had completed 13 of 22 passes for 128 yards, a touchdown and an interception.

The interception is what led to Nagy pulling his starting quarterback. It came on a 3rd and 8 play in the second half, with the Bears trailing by 13. Prior to that moment, Chicago had converted just one of six third down opportunities.

They would be one of seven in the blink of an eye:

Chicago runs a three-level passing concept here out of this 3×1 formation, with shallow crossers underneath and Allen Robinson on a deeper dig route. Robinson is wide open in the middle of this coverage, but Trubisky stares down and then forces a throw to Jimmy Graham working left to right. This is as easy an interception as you can find.

Now, Robinson gets cut out of the view here, but thankfully…we have the “dots!”

Robinson is wide open in the middle of the field, but Trubisky does not give him a chance. An anticipation throw attacking this coverage, and the Bears might be two of seven on third downs with Robinson moving the chains.

Instead Trubisky is moving to the bench.

Now earlier I indicated that two pictures likely tell the full story. Here is the first:

Trubisky was 0 for 5 on throws over 20 yards, and completed just two passes over ten yards downfield. Most of his attempts were at or near the line of scrimmage. Not the most aggressive passing display in terms of pushing the ball vertically, which is odd, considering the game script.

Of course, you have to keep that context in mind when you look at the passing chart from Foles, but here is his:

Foles attempted more downfield throws than Trubisky. Again, this could be a function of the game script, but Foles also hit on three of those, including one for the game-winning touchdown:

Atlanta brings pressure here, but Foles does a good job of hanging in the pocket – knowing the hit is coming – but delivering a strike downfield to Anthony Miller for the go-ahead score. He hung in the pocket and gave his receiver a chance to make a play.

That is the critical point. Foles has been and remains a high-variance passer. He might look incredible at some moments, and like more of a journeyman at others, and that could be due in large part to his willingness to give his receivers a chance downfield in the vertical passing game. If he sees single coverage on the outside, he is going to throw the nine route. He trusts his receivers and if he gets man coverage, he is going to put the ball up there and hope his receivers make a play.

Sometimes it leads to interceptions.

Sometimes it does not.

But it gives the Chicago offense an element of aggression that has been sorely lacking during the Trubisky Era.

Then you combine it with the effectiveness of the deep ball, and you have improvement as an offense. As you can see from Trubisky’s spray chart from Sunday, he did take some shots downfield, he just did not hit on them. This is another theme with Trubisky. According to data from Pro Football Focus, Trubisky attempted 64 throws last year over 20 yards.

On those attempts, he completed 22 for 666 yards, four touchdowns and five interceptions. His Adjusted Completion Percentage of 37.5% was 19th out of 24 qualified passers (defined as quarterbacks who attempted 50% of their team’s passing attempts).

When you expand the criteria to just 20%, he falls to 28th in that statistic.

Now think about it from this frame of mind. The Chicago Bears are playing the Indianapolis Colts this weekend. If you are defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus and you are putting together a gameplan for Mitchell Trubisky, you’re worried about the stuff underneath. You are not as afraid about stuff downfield. You are installing lots of Cover 1 concepts with robber looks to take away the crossing routes, like the one Trubisky threw the interception on.

But if you are thinking about defending Foles, you might have to worry a bit more about the vertical passing game. You might be thinking more Cover 2 looks, to keep both safeties deep to help on those.

What does that do? It opens up opportunities for the deep stuff. Which is where Nagy’s West Coast system wants to be for the most part.

When you think like a defensive coordinator for a moment, the decision becomes clear.