NFL odds, betting: Let's take advantage of Patrick Mahomes as an underdog

Putting your money on a team projected to lose doesn't sound like a great idea, but backing underdogs is an essential part of the process when betting on the NFL. Dogs went 11-5 ATS in Week 5 and are cashing in at a 60% rate this season. Whether the Giants are surprising as double-digit dogs or the Raiders are keeping it close enough to cover, each week has examples of the perceived inferior team holding value. Since Week 2, dogs of less than four points are 20-11-2. While it's important to be aware of certain trends, the foundation of your handicap should be the on-field matchup. Here are two short dogs I already targeted and the critical matchups that made them both worth a bet.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)

The ability to bet Patrick Mahomes as an underdog doesn't come around too often, so I will take advantage when I get a shot. In my ratings, these two teams are only separated by the slimmest of margins (I rate them 1-2). Therefore, having the Bills as a road favorite by more than a point is a little surprising. Buffalo remains the current betting favorite to win the Super Bowl at +325, but Kansas City is right behind them at +550. The Bills have asserted their dominance against much lesser teams, crushing both Tennessee and Pittsburgh by a combined score of 79-10. In close games, they weren't nearly as impressive, losing in Miami and holding on for dear life against Baltimore. The Bills get an extra day's rest with the Chiefs coming off a Monday night game, but any advantage is eliminated because Buffalo will spend it traveling to Arrowhead Stadium. That's a trade-off that favors the Chiefs, who hold a significant home-field advantage.

I see this game coming down to an area where Mahomes has been deadly this season: the red zone. Maximizing scoring on each possession in a game between two explosive offenses is critical. Kicking field goals is how coaches end up losing to elite quarterbacks like Mahomes and Josh Allen. Kansas City is a top-five red-zone offense and was a 4-for-4 for TDs onMonday night. Buffalo has been the much better team defensively in the red zone, but I am not sold it makes a difference against the Chiefs' high-octane offense. I'm still convinced Mahomes gets what he wants in this matchup against the Buffalo defense. Last year, the Bills had the best defense (statistically) in football. They were still helpless when the coin flip didn't go their way in overtime in the playoffs. Kansas City has had two big tests this season, and answered both with wins over the Chargers and Buccaneers. I am betting they outscore the Bills again. Put my money on Mahomes.

New England Patriots (+3) at Cleveland Browns

New England's ability to move the football on Detroit's defense was a big part of why I was on the Patriots and the over. The total was doomed as the Pats' defense shut out the high-scoring Lions, but New England's offensive success against Detroit played out as expected. Rhamondre Stevenson's 161 yards on the ground made everything easier for New England quarterback Bailey Zappe. The rookie was an efficient 17-of-21 for 188 yards as the Patriots coasted to a 29-0 victory. It was a season-high point total for New England.

New England now finds itself as a small underdog against a team with similar defensive struggles. Like the Lions, the Browns are one of the league's worst teams at stopping the run. Cleveland currently ranks 31st in EPA per rush allowed and just got gashed by the Chargers for 238 yards rushing. If New England can get the ground game going, it takes the pressure off the QB, whether it's Zappe or Mac Jones.

This is a good spot to back New England, which has covered two straight, because Cleveland has consistently failed to close games. The Browns have allowed more fourth-quarter points than all but two teams (New Orleans and Carolina) and have blown fourth-quarter leads in all three of their losses. I will take the Patriots and the points.

Stats provided by football outsiders, rbsdm (based off 10-90 WP), and teamrankings.com.